Big Data predicts US election

Clearly, "Big data" does not really care who will be elected to the next president of the United States. But all the data show that political scientists and others are concerned that Obama is more likely to win re-election. This success prediction shows the powerful energy of large data.

Statistical models have been watching the New York Times over the past few weeks http://www.aliyun.com/zixun/aggregation/16576.html ">fivethirtyeight's blogger and statistician Nate The hot topic of silver (even arguably). Silver, who has become the focus of the controversy, has been "whirlwind" to publicize his new book, predicting that the Obama has more than 80% chance of winning the Tuesday election (and later the model to 90.9%). However, Zeynep Tufekci, a researcher at Princeton University's information technology policy, responded swiftly last week: Silver is absolutely impossible to guarantee that Mr Obama will win the November 6 election-just a high probability- None of the results involved in his model took into account partisan politics.

Believe it or not, Silver spends all his time building statistical models-predicting the outcome of a political election, though he is not the only one who does it, but he is the most famous. There are many academicians in the United States, predicting markets, amateurs and others can do this, all of them using different data, using different methods to assess the authority of specific results. With a few exceptions, most of them also predict that Mr Obama will win. Here are the results of their predictions, and some unscientific sources, like Twitter.

Who's going to keep an eye on Obama?

FiveThirtyEight: I believe Silver's final forecast is that President Obama's chances of re-election are 86.3%.

The New York Times: Silver's colleagues Mike Bostock and Shan Carter, who were also obsessed with data analysis, released an interactive version of their own models in Friday. Still based on competitive analysis, they see Obama has 431 ways to win, compared with only 76 of Romney.

InTrade: The world's most popular market forecast, InTrade gave Obama a 67.2% chance to win (Pacific Time Monday 10:54), but the percentage has been changing in real time.

PredictWise: Predicting market predictwise (led by Yahoo's blog David Rotshchild and not really like the Intrade model) gave Obama a whopping 72% chance to win (Pacific Time Monday 9:48). In the past week, opportunities have been rising steadily.

Twitter: Although not a real predictive model, Twitter's political index does provide a way to measure how users of social media platforms evaluate candidates. As of November 4, Obama's positive sentiment index was 59, while Romney's only 53, but in July just launched the index gap of up to 9 points, Mr. Romney has narrowed the gap.

Who's got Mitt Romney?

At least six political scientists/economists: Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry, a professor at the University of Colorado in the United States, published a model report this August that said Romney had a 67.77% chance of winning.

Another model of "tracking the success of a successful person"--ray fair--, an economics professor at Yale University, also believes Mitt Romney has a weak edge (November 2).

Politicit (tied): Utah State's Provo start-up company is committed to measuring the footprints of political figures and the candidate's popular support rate. Initially thought the two were tied and each had 50 points.

Update: Politicit gave Obama 49 points and Mitt Romney gave 48 points. They now predict that Obama will win, and they published the details of the blog post in Monday.

NFL (American Football League): if any relevance and superstition can be used as a "directive", Mr. Romney's chances of victory are high, especially after a professional game this week. The Washington Redskins, often considered "Reds", lost their last home game before the election, and it turned out that Mr. Romney would win! Chris Wilson concocted a series of correlations for 31 NFL teams. All in all, the 19 predictions this year bode well for Mr Romney, with only 12 predicting victory.

Update Latest NEWS: 2012 The final results of the U.S. general election show that Obama won 313 electoral votes (Romney 206), the vote is 50.34%, re-elected President! Nate Silver predicted that the election results for all 50 states, the number of voters and the votes were surprisingly accurate, and the victory over a group of senior political Science experts and observers (such as the editor-in-chief of Forbes magazine), fully demonstrated the magic of data and mathematical models, So the media is called the U.S. election, except Obama's biggest winner.

Original link: Gigaom (compile/@CSDN Wang Peng, revisers/Bao)

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