China's foreign trade will reverse or push up imported inflation

In recent years, China's trade surplus deficit with the map/Oriental IC six years first "deficit season" mixed with the first quarter of the trade deficit of 1.02 billion U.S. dollars, China's foreign trade from shun to reverse, conducive to global trade balance, but may push up the importation of inflation reporter Xu Jing report: "Anyone expected it will come, but did not expect so soon ——— China Customs 10th on the first quarter of this year China's trade deficit of 1.02 billion U.S. dollars of data issued caused concern at home and abroad. Long-term foreign demand-driven China's trade has been running to achieve balance? In the complex domestic and foreign economic situation, is this deficit a positive signal or is it worth worrying?　　In this respect, the industry is abuzz. A reason to interpret import price pressure greater than export pressure last week, Commerce Minister Chen Deming (column) "Steady export, expand imports, reduce surplus," The voice is still in the side of China's trade surplus fell back. The data showed that China's imports and exports amounted to $800.3 billion trillion in the first quarter of this year, up 29.5% from a year earlier; It is the first time in 6 years that China has seen a quarterly trade deficit.　　In the first quarter of last year, China's trade surplus was $13.91 billion trillion. The reversal of China's foreign trade reflects the change of China's long-term economic structure in two aspects. One is the trend of price increase of Chinese export products. By the appreciation of the renminbi and the impact of domestic market inflation, many foreign trade enterprises reflect the increasingly difficult export. But China's exports in the first quarter remained at a 29.5% year-on-year rate, indicating that export demand remained strong against the backdrop of rising prices. The second is the trend of commodity prices. This momentum has led to a sharp rise in China's import costs.　　Among them, crude oil, iron ore, copper, soybeans and other China's economic needs of energy, supplies, prices have risen sharply in the past year, driving the first quarter of the import growth rate of 32.6% per cent.　　In contrast, the increase in the price of imported products is more pressure, so the overall trade balance from the surplus to the trend deficit. Although reducing the trade surplus is the trend of China's transformation of the economic development model ——— China's overall trade deficit in the first quarter, imports have been growing faster than export growth for two consecutive years, but the formation of the trade deficit still does not rule out seasonal factors.　　The General administration of Customs said the first-quarter trade deficit was mainly affected by the rapid growth of domestic economy, the sharp rise in commodity prices in the international market and the holiday of the Spring Festival. b Positive side import dollar less than imported commodities after the financial crisis era, China's long-term external demand-driven economic growth model has been questioned and reflected. In the past, China has long adopted policies to encourage exports, increase output and employment in export industries, and accumulate foreign exchange reserves.　　Today, when China's labour force is gradually scarce and the purchasing power of the dollar is falling, the pattern of export-led growth involves huge risks. Some analysts believe that the balance of China's economy and the world economy, China's trade to maintain a balanced or small deficit is a good thing. Up to 2010At the end of the year, China's reserves had reached $2.85 trillion trillion, and the dollar was under pressure from the US government's monetary policy and debt levels.　　In such a context, it is clear that a net importer of real goods is more advantageous than the net-imports of foreign currencies. An analysis of the favourable global trade balance is considered. For the global balance, China's reduction of foreign exchange reserves will correspondingly reduce the demand for Treasury bonds and the yuan's basic money supply.　　So another positive effect of China's trade deficit is to reduce the inflation brought about by US currency expansion, correct America's overconsumption and reduce the global imbalances caused by China's excessive investment/savings. c negative side or continue to push higher import inflation March China imports record, mainly because of the continued rise in commodity prices. And rising oil prices are likely to spur China to buy more. Since last year's rising prices have become the primary concern of the central government, this trend suggests that the pressure on imported inflation will not decrease.　　Some experts believe the Chinese government has the ability to speed up or slow down commodity imports as a way to rein in high inflation, as well as fine-tune trade balances. China-US exchange rate frictions continue despite March imports rose 27% to a record $152 billion trillion, but exports grew 36% to 152.2 billion dollars, not far from the highest record of 154 billion dollars last December. U.S. data from February confirmed that more than half of America's trade deficit stems from trading with China, suggesting that frictions over currency issues will remain.