Commodities kidnapped by high house prices

Recently, the most worried about the mood of investors is not the ups and downs of stock prices, nor the rise and fall of commodity prices, but the state-intensive regulation of real estate policies, which has made the majority of people lose the sense of well-being of the market has added a lot of imagination. Does house prices continue to rise or fall?　　In the back of house prices, the pulse of commodity markets has also begun to wobble subtly. Bizarre commodity prices from last January to the present, the most shocking for investors is perhaps the price of commodity futures led by non-ferrous metals soared.　　London Metal Exchange (LME) March copper prices from 2800 U.S. dollars/ton to 8000 U.S. dollars/ton above the rise of more than 200%. Data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange and several Customs offices in the Yangtze River delta show that futures prices and import prices for commodities such as crude oil, non-ferrous metals and iron ore have been rising since the beginning of 2009.　　In addition to the Shanghai copper price rose more than twice times, Shanghai aluminum, Shanghai Zinc prices also rose close to and more than 1 time times; Copper imports rose by about 50% per cent; iron ore import prices also rose.　　The shock is that the international and domestic economies are still at a slow start to recovery, and demand for commodities is still at a lower level than before the crisis, and metal prices, led by copper, have rebounded to near-all-time highs (up to 8850 dollars/ton).　　What kind of power is there?　　It may not be too long for the real estate market to release long signals linking metal prices to the real estate market. Copper, aluminum, zinc, steel and other metals in the real estate chain, playing an important role. The demand for metals has naturally been reinforced by investors to a new level of expectation, as house prices have soared and local kings have been popping up.　　This level of expectation even exceeds the historical highs of these metals prices.　　Expert analysis, China's rapid development of the real estate market consumption of a large number of steel, copper, aluminum, zinc and other raw materials, which directly promote the price of these varieties higher.　　Customs data show that the first half of 2009 imports 1.887 million tons of copper, compared with the same period in 2008 up to 130.7%. A senior futures investor told the first financial daily that the main reason for the rise in commodities is the scarcity of commodities, the most visible form of non-ferrous metals, which, in 2008, would have risen to more than $10000/ton, if not the financial crisis.　　This year, copper prices again rose 8000 dollars/ton, optimistic estimates can see about 12000 dollars/ton. In fact, the investor's explanation has been recognized by many in the market, and many organizations have even used "China demand to pull high commodity prices" to explain the growing commodity bubble.　　This "demand" is also largely the result of 4 trillion of government stimulus and the private speculative impulses of last year's looser monetary policy. One side is the stimulation of the 4 trillion project, one side is speculative frenzy, the strong interaction between the two directly reflected in the price as a representativeAsset prices, and the price of non-ferrous metals as a combination of real estate prices and other asset prices, with high prices are soaring into the sky.　　Raising the cost of high commodity prices to revive the economy has pushed the cost of our recovery to an almost unbearable level. From the producer's point of view, due to the cost of raw materials such as copper rise, put a heavy pressure on the production of enterprises, have to transfer these costs to the end products, which will largely inhibit the end of consumption; from the consumer's point of view, due to the rising prices of upstream products, facing the actual demand is not commensurate with the price environment, This is the most obvious in the real estate market.　　Since the start of last year, prices in most cities have risen by more than one, and in some parts of some of the first-tier cities, house prices have risen more than twice or even three times times, far exceeding the affordability of most consumers. It can be said that the high fever of the real estate market kidnapped commodity prices, and the soaring commodity prices further boosted the cost of economic recovery.　　It is noteworthy that the contribution of the housing boom to economic recovery is showing increasing side effects. Analysis of the industry, the harm of high housing prices on the one hand on the residents ' consumption capacity constraints, on the other hand, on the social harmony, the issue of livelihood distortion.　　The regulation of the real estate market is imperative, and high commodity prices will meet a real "turning point" test at this time of regulation.　　What is the price of commodities in the expectation of real estate regulation?　　Since April this year, a series of stringent real estate control policies have been introduced, the high temperature of the housing prices played a temporary cooling effect, the corresponding commodity prices have temporarily stopped the pace of rise. According to statistics, in the State Council April 16 after the introduction of real estate regulation policy guidance documents issued one weeks, the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper, aluminum, zinc, threaded steel and other futures prices have a different degree of decline.　　Among them, Shanghai Copper main 1007 Contract from this year the highest 63790 yuan/ton fell to 60000 yuan/ton near, rebar main contract from this year the highest 4896 yuan/ton fell to 4700 yuan/ton nearby. The commodity market's response to the real estate market is rapid, but the outlook is still uncertain.　　Because the "kidnapping" of the market's real estate prices, still hovering high, the city is still a mystery, and more optimistic institutions and people estimate that real estate prices will not fall, and commodity prices will continue to rise.　　According to the Financial Times, April 21, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that in the short term, the global economic strength will bring additional "price upward pressure" on commodity markets. "In the medium term, commodity prices are expected to remain at historically high levels," the IMF said.　　The agency said the "tension between rapid demand growth and slow growth" is likely to recur as the global economic recovery is fully underway, "thus keeping prices at historically high levels". Reported that the IMF warned commoditiesAs prices rise further, the rise in the cost of key raw materials has raised concerns about the rise in inflation in emerging countries.　　The IMF reckons that commodity prices are picking up faster than in previous economic cycles because "the global recovery is stronger than expected and emerging and developing economies play an increasingly important role in global commodity markets".　　Notably, the IMF is one of the few official institutions to bet on a 2008-year recession as a pause in the "Commodity super cycle", rather than a destination. However, some agencies believe that China's real estate regulatory policy has expressed the Government's determination to tighten monetary liquidity, which will largely depress commodity markets, including metals. The commodity market is facing a crossroads choice. In this choice process, the real estate market is to continue to deduce crazy rise, or the inflection point, will be to a large extent determine the trend of commodity prices.