"Demon" Enterprise only product will: the short-term development without hindrance, the long-term prospects see empty

said that only goods will be home "demon" Enterprise, on the one hand, its performance is too bright: rapid growth and profitability, all aspects of the indicators are improving, and accompanied by bright performance, its stock market value soared to the point of the incomprehensible; another reason for saying "demon" is that the brand awareness and user volume of the product will be small, It is difficult to convince people of the authenticity of their performance. Recent Investment Research Institute Greenwich issued a report questioning only the goods will be suspected of fraud, did not hit only the point of the product will, but further ignited the market for the only product will dispute. First of all, I also have some controversy do not have an itch to make a statement: Only the goods will be income measurement no problem, I also believe that the only product will be the financial performance is not false;

Should see, is known as the pan-luxury electric goods will not be the only product is not a national electric commodity card, by selling 234 line brand to 234 lines of small users, its interpretation is actually a cock silk reverse attack of the story, the people questioned also in reason. And the recent major electric dealers on the line to sell the channel, only products will encounter the so-called Chinese-style encirclement and suppression. The author thinks, when and Fank and so on website is very difficult to only product will cause the threat, only the development of the product will not be hindered in the short term, even its share price will still have a room to rise; but in the long run, the only thing that has not established the core advantage will be difficult to continue "demon", the author of its future development prospects see empty.

Only goods will achieve profitability, but the basis for their profitability is not stable

Whether an enterprise can obtain the favor of capital market is mainly related to its development speed and profitability, and its market is large enough to affect the factors. For its part, it maintained a growth rate of more than 200% per cent from 2009 to 2012, and was profitable in the fourth quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013, giving the capital market sufficient confidence. Moreover, in Macaulay and Dangdang was "abandoned" in the background, the only product will assume the capital market for China's electric Business unlimited imagination role, this kind of glory how much let the only product will be a temporary premium.

And in the long run, the first thing is that high growth will inevitably gradually slowed down, 2013 to continue to achieve a few 200% growth is not possible; Moreover, only the goods will be profitable in the last two quarters but only to achieve a meager profit, can not explain that it has a solid foundation for profitability, once to expand the scale in the market and other areas of expenditure, The likelihood of a return to loss is greater. Growth and profitability as long as their performance is poor, only the stock price will be volatile. In the long run, the type of special selling mode of the Poly-Mei excellent products and even the current number of major group buying sites have the opportunity to go public, will rob the only product will be the limelight, and more importantly, the capital market are looking forward to Ali and Jingdong listing, they are the real representative of China's electric power, the only product will be the imagination of the space will be greatly compressed.

With the help of clothing inventory crisis, but inventory crisis will not always exist

The only product would think that China's discounted retail market had enough room for growth, citing Frost & Sullivan, which sold 24.1 billion U.S. dollars in 2012, compared with less than 3% per cent of its revenue in the same period, compared with 690 million U.S. dollars; In the past two years, China's apparel footwear enterprises have up to tens of billions of of the inventory, with more and more bargaining power, only goods will not worry about low-cost sourcing. Undoubtedly, only the success of the product will be to a certain extent, is the situation to create a hero, it is the use of inventory crisis of the Dongfeng, only the goods will be achieved take-off.

But in the long run, the market will always maintain a high inventory of the logic is difficult to get through, first of all, the business will be adjusted according to market conditions; Moreover, C2B flexible production will also become the major online platform and offline enterprises to promote the goal, only the quality of the conference price more and more powerful logic is not established. In addition, the only product will be the current advantages of concentrated in the apparel field, expansion of the category after the advantages can not be directly translated in the past, in cosmetics, mother and child and home and other new categories, the first does not exist such as clothing as serious inventory crisis, followed by the current market has a strong competitor, only the product will be difficult to replicate its success in apparel. At present, in addition to the special sale, only the quality of the goods will be its own luxury, only goods group and the only goods travel (removed from the homepage of the link) are unsatisfactory.

Short-term response when, where the customer competition without pressure, long-term inevitable fall into the whirlpool of low price competition

A few days ago, Dangdang, where the customer prudential products and many sites such as Jingdong occasion online sales channels, many views that this will be the only product will form a siege. In practical terms, the sale of these sites is only one channel in their vast business, first, there will be the situation of hand to hand, each site will not be due to the sale of the main change in the mainstream business form; They and the only product will not be directly to the stage of the fight, the Web site on the sale will also not be for the purpose of towing only goods, Dangdang is to increase the concept to revive the stock price, where the customer is testing to get rid of the growth dilemma, and the special sell to Jing Dong for the time being

But in the long run, the only product will be the main shopping platform and the direct confrontation is inevitable. The two major development strategies of the product Council are geographical expansion and category expansion: In the area of expansion, the only product will be in South China as the base for the use of Beijing Shanghai and other big cities, the big flat from Beijing and Shanghai to the regional subsidence, which will make it inevitable for the parties to compete for the same online buyers; in the category expansion, now only the main category of goods will be Semi-standardized products, once extended to other high standard category, will inevitably fall into the whirlpool of low price competition. Limited-timed sales can to some extent avoid parity, but as long as the high standards of products, China's smart price-sensitive consumers will always find a more affordable platform than the only product.

Only the product will be a light model, there are certain advantages, but the long-term negative effect is obvious

Only the positioning of the product will be special selling time limit, this model is impulsive consumption, with its own strong position, only the practice of goods will be required to brand products into the library, the end of the sale of unsold products by the brand to bring back. And in the traditional sense of the mining sales model is different, the only product will be to a certain extent, independent and peaceful desktop to the middle of the industry, not only to avoid the full autonomy of the model of the problem, but also solve the platform of the individual shipments increased costs and reduce the experience of the drawbacks. From this point of view, the only product will have a certain advantage of the model.

But a seemingly perfect model is often accompanied by large defects, impulsive consumption will inevitably result in high return rate, only the goods will be publicly admitted the proportion of returns is 20%, the actual proportion is likely to be higher. From the nature of business considerations, only goods will make the transaction process faster, but not the cost of the transaction process is lower, regardless of the cost of return to the end by which party to bear, only the goods will be limited to the special selling mode is not really efficient solution to the business transaction process. Moreover, the only product will brand special selling difficult to get rid of cock Silk brand positioning, high-end brand participation will not be high, once expanded to cosmetics, mother and child category, to want high-end brand support will be more difficult.

There is still profit space in the short term, no core competitiveness in the long term

At present, the biggest positive factor in supporting the profitability of the only product is that its order execution costs are still likely to be lowered, the future with the only goods will be the storage logistics ability to upgrade, its profitability has a certain amount of room for improvement, its share price is likely to continue to create high. But the only product will be the threshold of the model, low brand awareness, less users; only the product will claim the close relationship with the brand is its core competitiveness, but the mall is in the interest-oriented, businesses are not necessarily willing to tie themselves only to a tree.

In the long run, the retail price advantage of online retailing will be slowly wiped out, and online retail to profit is inevitable. Whether the United States of America's Amazon or China's Ali Jingdong, they are in warehousing logistics and technology investment is very large, online channels will gradually move to rely on warehousing logistics or technology profit direction. At present, only goods will be subject to the pressure of the capital market, can only profit to win high stock market value, and do not have the ability to do too much investment in the future, its technical cost rate is less than 2.5%, its warehousing logistics level is also in the early stage of development, the future needs a large amount of The future of the special sale to avoid becoming standard, once Jingdong and suning easy to buy more attention, combined with their technology and logistics advantages, fully capable of the only product will constitute a real threat.

Original articles, reproduced please specify the Source: Huang (Product research director, Internet industry analyst), Sina Weibo @ Huang. Welcome to the micro-letter, the first time to read my article. Open micro-mail click-Friends--Add friends-Search number Input "Puji-she" (Universal)