Driverless cars will go through these three stages.

The company that developed driverless cars claims that allowing machines to drive can make the future a better place, the number of traffic accidents will plummet, people are freed from the old model, the pilot becomes the passenger, the hands can be freed from the steering wheel, the eyes do not stare at the road, more time can be spent working, resting, caring for loved ones, Parking is no longer so troublesome.

Even the American Highway Safety Administration, which rarely praises technological progress, says:

(The emergence of driverless cars) "offers new possibilities for improving road safety, improving environmental efficiency, increasing flexibility, and creating new opportunities for employment and investment." ”

The rosy vision of carmakers and regulators may sound exaggerated, but McKinsey's new consultancy report shows that most of them are correct.

Carmakers want to introduce automatic technology in stages, making gradual changes on the basis of traditional vehicles. 3-5 years later, the car will be able to be unmanned during traffic jams and the rest of the time still being driven. Driving in the city is a tougher challenge because there are more obstacles and variables in the city. But cars will become more and more intelligent over the next 25 years, and we can hope to achieve full unmanned driving by 2040.

We are already moving in this direction:

Google's driverless cars created more than 700,000 of miles of car-free records;

Earlier this year, Audi's unmanned vehicles "drove" from Silicon Valley to Las Vegas, traveling 500 miles;

Last week, Mercedes-Benz's unmanned concept car, F 015, was swept again.

The report points out that unmanned driving will be divided into three stages.

The first phase will be around 2020 years, the impact of automatic technology is still limited

While driverless cars have infiltrated industries and specific sites, such as farms and mines, unmanned passenger cars remain in prototype and testing stages. By contrast, some companies ' schedules are somewhat off the table, with Mercedes and Nissan planning to launch cars with automated features by 2020, and Audi's plan is similar, and Volvo is trying to launch a hundred-man real-world test in 2017.

The second phase between 2020 and 2035, unmanned driving technology will gradually enter the mainstream, and experience the pain of growth

This will require regulators around the world to legislate to oversee the development, testing, testing and licensing of vehicles. The basic model of the insurance company also needs to be changed, from the driver to insure the car, to the car manufacturer to insure the technical error. With the application of technology more extensive, there will be some side effects. For example, individual car repair shops will get worse, because remote diagnostics and online updates will be more frequent, and because of fewer accidents, vehicle repair frequency is less. Jobs such as taxi drivers and long-distance freight drivers will also gradually decrease.

At the same time, consumers will start to get used to not driving and may even like this way. As long as the overall automatic, security benefits will come soon. The American Highway Safety Insurance Association (IIHS) report shows that vehicles with the most basic forward impact warning system have a 7% lower accident rate. According to the consumer report, with automatic braking, the rate of car crashes is lower windmills. Unmanned driving can also make the accident rate lower. That's why automation is an important part of the plan to eliminate passenger casualties Volvo2020 years ago.

Let's see how much time Americans spend on transportation: the average driver wastes 111 hours a year. According to Inrix's research, this means that the driver's productivity can be greatly improved.

2040 years later, phase three.

Driverless cars have become our main vehicle, and all the rules need to be decided. Car design will fundamentally change, because the front seat, rearview mirror, foot pedal is no longer necessary. The way we divide the physical space can also escalate. By 2050, McKinsey predicts, we may only need 75% of the space to park now. In the United States, this means another 57 billion square meters of land. Because driverless cars can automatically stop very tightly, and no longer need to reserve the driver to open the door out of space.

In addition, the idea of car ownership will change. At present, 95% of the time the car is idle, with great resources to optimize the allocation of space.

In general, people don't stop buying cars, they just buy less. People are happy to have the autonomy to go and enjoy the freedom. There is no need to drive another car, an unmanned vehicle is enough to replace two traditional cars, and you can see the rise of the charging private pick-up service.

The recurring theme in the McKinsey report is: consumer victories. While an unmanned car with a variety of high-tech cars will cost thousands of dollars more than a conventional one, drivers can save a lot of time, equivalent to saving money. At present, the United States can save the repair and medical costs will reach 180 billion U.S. dollars, the accident rate will be reduced by 90%.

The economic benefits of productivity growth are harder to quantify, and there is no specific figure. After all, there is no guarantee that people will save time for work, not for napping, texting, or playing games. But the general picture is clear: if we don't drive, life will be better.

Via Wired

(Responsible editor: Mengyishan)