Export positive worry: The rebound is a flash in the pan

Can China's exports regain its peak in 2010? Is export rally a blip or can it last?　　What is the ripple effect on macroeconomic operation and industrial structure adjustment? As one of the three drivers of economic growth, the traditional GDP contributor-China exports, its 2010-year trend affects people's hearts. A number of experts, academics and officials interviewed by Caijing said that China's export growth in 2010 would be between 10% and 20%.　　Relative to the rapid growth of previous years, the growth rate is moderate.　　At the same time, the external environment and product structure of export are important changes, and will have a knock-on effect on macro-economy, especially structural adjustment. The 2010 economic Blue Book, released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences late last year, predicts that China's export growth is expected to reach more than 15% in 2010 and that the total import and export trade will return to near 2008 levels.　　The 2010 World Economic and Trade Development and Policy Outlook, published by the International Trade and Economics college, also predicts that China will maintain a growth rate of around 15% in 2010, with imports and exports reaching more than 20% per cent. "Such an estimate is too optimistic.　　Li Jian, deputy director of the International Economic and Trade Center of the Institute of Commerce, said to Caijing reporter that China's export growth could be between 5% and 10% in 2010. Cold Watch "World number one" Li said that China's export will surpass Germany as the world's first export power, which will stimulate international expectations of China's exports, oppress its appreciation, and take China as the number one target of anti-dumping and countervailing measures, and adopt more trade protectionism.　　Many foreign politicians, in order to woo voters, also need to fend off foreign products, protect local jobs and boycott Chinese goods. "In the face of the grim situation, China is not fully prepared.　　Li Jian said. In addition, China's main export labour-intensive products and necessities of life, Germany's export items are equipment manufactured goods. In the context of the financial crisis, labour-intensive products and necessities of life were less impacted, and the demand for manufactured goods in the international market declined as a result of the reduction in new start-up projects. As a result, China's exports developed faster in the 2009 and could overtake Germany in size.　　But with the gradual recovery of the global economy, it remains to be seen how the latter moves. Li said that the biggest challenge for China's exports is not whether it can restore the growth rate of the year, or whether it can enjoy the glory in the world's first export-scale, but whether it can maintain a coordinated growth posture and strengthen the quality of growth.　　Change the structure of trade products, change the mode of trade growth, from extensive to intensive, increase product value-added, encourage independent innovation and private brand, this is the future of China's exports to face the biggest issue.　　External demand power the export depends on the international market needs, and for 2010 external demand expectations, many people stressed that there is still "uncertainty" exists. Heqiao, deputy director of the Office of the Central Financial leadership group, said January 26 that the global demand shortfall in the next five years,The most scarce is not factor resources but market space, especially for China. "The U.S. economy is still in a healing period and it will take two or three years to recover, and in this case the U.S. market has limited external demand for Chinese exports," Georgia Korlov, A 2001 Nobel laureate in economics, told Caijing.　　"In 2009, the U.S. imports 220.82 billion U.S. dollars to China, down 12.5% year-on-year." China exports another big market Europe is also troubled. Peter Westaway, chief economist at Nomura Securities Europe, told Caijing reporter that the European Four seasons in 2009 years, although the beginning of a recovery, but still can not Wister Avi, the recovery process is still sluggish, many countries sovereign debt, consumer spending will be low,　　Household savings rates have increased, bank mortgages have tended to be conservative, capital flows are not plentiful, and Europe has struggled to provide enough thrust for China's exports. The good news comes from Asia.　　Subbaraman, a senior Asian economic analyst at the former Lehman company, told Caijing reporter that from the data, India and South-East Asia are recovering rapidly, with low debt ratios, recurrent account surpluses and strong economic fundamentals in Southeast Asia and India. Per capita GDP growth in these areas is faster, Southeast Asia has reached 2500 U.S. dollars per capita, China-ASEAN free Trade Area to start, all of China's exports to bring positive. Li pointed out that the current trade volume between China and Southeast Asia and India is much higher than that in Europe and America. "80% of the goods in Thailand's department stores come from China," said Groula Timor, chairman of the Thai Gifts and family Decorations Association. "The downturn in Europe and the United States, Asia to the good, one is a reverse effect, China's export trend?"　　The economies of developing countries have recovered relatively quickly and have increased their share of China's exports, but as the share of developed countries in China's exports remains far larger than that of developing countries, the growth in Asian exports cannot fill the gap in demand in the developed world, so it is unlikely that China's export blowout in 2010. The new negative effect of export recovery is bringing about a knock-on effect on the macro economy. Zhou Tianyong, deputy director of the Economic Research Department of the Central Party school, told Caijing reporter that if China exports warmer, on the one hand, will lead to a part of domestic production capacity supply is transferred to foreign countries, the relative reduction of domestic supply, while assuming domestic demand unchanged, export warming leads to domestic enterprises to produce more export products, create more demand, Push up the price of domestic raw materials.　　Such supply cuts, combined with increased demand, will increase inflationary expectations. Societe Generale chief economist Lu Commissar to the "financial" reporter analysis, from the exchange rate, the increase in China's exports will inevitably give rise to pressure on the renminbi. The renminbi is indeed undervalued, as long ago as the financial crisis, China's huge trade surplus and high-speed export growth let the developed countries repeatedly pressure China, during the financial crisis, countries busy, and China's exports blocked, the pressure was temporarily suppressed, but withChina's exports have rebounded, and the pressure of appreciation will inevitably return.　　Sun, chief economist for Nomura Securities China, predicts that the renminbi will appreciate 4% to 5% in 2010.　　The deeper impact is embodied in structural adjustment. In the financial crisis, exports from the cold to warm, may cause China's industrial restructuring to reverse. 2005, the "People's Republic of China's national economic and social Development of the 11th five-year Plan" clearly put forward: "Control of high energy consumption, high pollution and resource products (hereinafter referred to as ' two high investment ') export, promote domestic industrial upgrading." "In the 2006, the" Two-way investment "industry under the macro-control of national policy, through industrial restructuring, recycling economy, clean production and other means to start the transformation.　　In 2008 alone, the Ministry of Environmental Protection refused to accept, approve or suspend the approval of the "two-one-funded" project has 156, the total investment of 473.7 billion yuan.　　However, according to people familiar with the situation, in 2009 faced with the plight of weak exports, the authorities actually relaxed the "two-way" product production and export restrictions. This led to the "two-one-capital" production accelerated growth, China's structural adjustment is facing a prominent problem.　　In addition to the warmer export situation in 2010, non-metallic materials, metal products and other investment commodities, the international market demand may be the first rebound, in the international market demand growth and domestic overcapacity of the double pressure, China's "two-higher" product exports may accelerate growth, which will significantly increase energy-saving emission reduction and structural adjustment of the difficulty. According to the Ministry of Commerce, the financial crisis, the external need for a sluggish environment, many enterprises were forced to adjust product structure, hard skills, improve product value-added.　　In the process of adjustment, the export situation again, the foreign market door seems to be again open, many companies in the short-term interest driven, abandoned or postponed the pace of structural adjustment. However, Li said that the impact of export on structural adjustment is not absolute.　　The Guangdong provincial government has adopted a "cage" approach to transfer traditional low-value-added and high-energy-consuming industries to northern Guangdong and the mainland, freeing up coastal space to develop high-end technology industries. Lu County said, for structural adjustment can not be enthusiasm, not across, should be aware of China at different stages of development, should adapt to local conditions, step-by-step.　　For example, Guangdong has experienced long-term export-oriented economic growth, capital, technology and other aspects may have structural adjustment and trade structure of the conditions, but some backward areas of the Midwest, just a toddler, can not force these areas large, fast and sophisticated export-oriented exports. In addition, the rise of the low-carbon economy poses new challenges to China's export restructuring. Li said that China could no longer go back to the old ways of exporting light industrial products to export heavy industrial products, as carbon emissions restrictions are getting closer to China, and the production of electromechanical products first needs to meet domestic demand, and heavy industry exports are limited to carbon emission targets and may suffer bottlenecks. China's exports may take the leap-forward path, from light industrial products to export service products.