has recently been in the Internet small micro-credit business (Love Money), before and several other partners on the industry issues have a lot of discussion, and I also to the field of domestic and foreign counterparts to do some research, say some of my own views.
Peer-to-peer is a business model that skips the direct lending relationship between borrowers and lenders by skipping the bank's indirect loan financing model, so it is easy to understand the risks of Peer-to-peer, which is the risk of borrowers not repaying their borrowings. But no matter which borrower will always have the possibility (or probability) of repaying the loan, the business model of all financial companies is based on the premise of bad debts, as long as the borrowing spreads (that is, the rate of interest charged to borrowers minus the interest rate paid by lenders) are higher than the cost of employee and office costs plus bad debts, This company or Peer-to-peer platform will continue to operate. It's not scary to have bad debts, as long as you have a risk-pricing capability for borrowers. To make a simple analogy, lend 1000 to 10,000 of each person, these 1000 people have 2% (20 people) bad debts, then your bad debt cost is 200,000, if asked 1000 people received 10% spreads, spreads income is 1 million, excluding staff and office costs, or can be profitable, But if you approve the 1000 people who pass the loan and have 10% of the bad Debt (100), the cost of the bad debt is 1 million, and obviously spreads are not covering all the costs of the company, then the platform will fail.
But if you are approving the 1000-person loan request, then you can determine that the probability of the group's bad debts is 10%, then you can also therewith high spreads (such as 15%, and these people because at other lower interest rates of the bank that is not a loan, So to be able to accept the higher borrowing costs), so 1.5 million of the income can also cover bad debts and other costs, which means that the core of this business model is that your judgment of the default probability of these borrowers is very important, that is, the business model I have repeatedly stressed that the team's own risk pricing ability is the most important, As long as this is done well, the others are secondary.
Reader may have discovered that what I said in the previous paragraph is that the team's own risk pricing ability is important. For example, we think that Chou-Jay's duck neck is delicious, or Coca-Cola drink addictive it, then have heard, the Zhou Black raven This seasoning ingredient prescription is outsourced to what what "duck and duck seasoning research company"? Or is Coca-Cola's ingredients given to other beverage research firms to study the improvements? Not at all. And why? Because these are the company's core competitiveness, if not these words, then the week Black Duck Ah, Coca-Cola ah long ago, Buffett said the enterprise's "moat" is the same meaning, if the enterprise itself has no moat, then it is easy to be eliminated. Therefore, decide on a business model coreHeart competitive things must be in the company's own hands to master, similar to the favorable net, the building block box, the love invests these so-called "the credit outsourcing", "and the guarantee company cooperation" and so on the model, from the logic to look very strange and suspicious, this decides the company business development core competitive power, unexpectedly is through cooperates with other organizations, Obtained from others?!
This is also a peer-to-peer company doing similar business abroad, consumer finance companies, such as lending Club,capitalone,ge Money,citibank Consumer Finance and other companies, I've never heard of outsourcing the core of wind control, they build their own core team, develop the core system to do their own, and how to judge the borrower's default risk rating card system and core evaluation rules, are only in the hands of a few core people, and Coca-Cola, like the recipe, Sometimes it may not even be known to the CEO, and the person engaged in the specific approval process may not know the rule. Companies such as CapitalOne, which have been doing this kind of micro-personal loan business in the United States since the early 90, have so far become the 7th-largest bank in the United States, accumulating many of these types of business experience and core scoring card systems. Down can be said why the domestic peer-to-peer institutions are many of the risk of outsourcing or guarantee company cooperation, frankly speaking, is not! (cough, will you offend?) There is no way, it is the strange elephant in these industries can not go on, I must say that the industry every CEO in the heart of the big secret of the Agony, ha ha.
Why not? Just now, this thing knows very few people, if you want to build this core competitiveness, that is, you have to face 30,000 loan applicants to let you choose, how can you select 1000 people, said that 1000 people do not pay the probability is 2% (instead of 10%), there are two methods:
After their own experiments, accumulated 10 tens of thousands of customers, and finally found some rules (but in this process, the company may have been due to the experiment of bad debts over the)
From abroad has established this core wind control system of the company to find someone (this is too expensive, and others in the foreign mixed good why follow you these children mix ah haha), another money to buy mature IT systems.
The first method has a relatively large uncertainty risk, and if you want a never eat pork, or even see pig run people to draw a pig, can be seen how difficult, after painting a group of people who have not seen pig run around to see how I sigh, It might have been a combination of a cow and a bear (because the man who painted it had only seen cows and bears), only to find a mixture in a pigsty or run with a herd of pigs. The second way, the upfront investment is too large, including salary, concept, system development, a large number of tens of millions of of the cost, light and the three global credit companies to get a set of decision engine and scoring card system on the brush quickly 10 million no, the domestic how many home to do?
It says so much, nothing more than to say, favorable nets, building blocks box, love to invest in these peer-to-peer because they do not have the ability to establish their own wind control audit core competitiveness, so can only do outsourcing, oh I almost forgot these wind control credit outsourcing or with small loan guarantee company after the risk is reduced AH! Let's see, is this the logic? Those so-called small loan companies, guarantee companies have the strength or ability to use the above two methods to establish their own wind control audit capacity? Thousands of small loans and guarantee companies in the country, our partners have spent a few years in detail to investigate the industry, can plainly tell you, no! These so-called small loan company guarantee Company, is in a district of the city, several local private bosses want to fashion finance, some companies set up to lend only their own registered capital (because the state does not allow them to leverage the money of too many banks or ordinary people, and in the past is doing so by way of folk water, Then the standardization of a small loan company license plate, so the new Year's time and relatives and friends blowing some blow ah). So one sees the so-called "credit outsourcing", "guarantee company cooperation" I began to frown, because it was just a game of playing a drum, and the risk had been spread among the different institutional themes (I think again, the financial tsunami caused by the subprime mortgage in the United States, Everyone thought the risk passed on to other people's head, then the truth burst out after dumbfounded after the original is the Pan-man! ）。 The beneficial net, the building block box or the love investment and so on, who can tell me which your cooperative small loan guarantee Organization can have this "the flower" to eat to digest the ability? It's just that the risk was passed on to the outside of the site, this has nothing to do with me, the clear, there is no platform guarantee legal risk (this is a favorable net of Liu Yan south to answer very well, is to use the pretext of compliance to do some of the clear should assume responsibility of things).
Maybe these peer-to-peer websites will say I think these guarantee companies have the ability to vouch for them, but how do I judge them? Oh, this is not a good time for us to disclose, perhaps because they have millions of registered capital, or a few billion registered capital? Oh, so how many loans do they guarantee, tens of millions of, a few billion, or tens of billions of? This is not convenient for us to disclose Ah, this is someone else's trade secrets AH. Eldest brother, if you do not know this, how to judge their security capabilities and risk situation AH!!! Everybody is pulling the transparent, pull the profession, can this most key professional question even if transparent a little! Therefore, the use of small loan guarantee companies to advertise the so-called credit outsourcing, risk transfer, the lack of platform guarantees, such as compliance issues of peer-to-peer network lending companies, in essence, investors are the most irresponsible companies. In addition to this issue of compliance, because the founder of these Peer-to-peer network can often see that the platform guarantee is irregular, so find small loans and guarantee company cooperation guarantee is compliance. But insiders know that The regulatory provisions of small lenders stipulate that their leverage ratio cannot exceed 1.5 times times. That is, they can only borrow 0.5 times times as much from their registered capital as banks or shareholders, because regulators know that these regional small lenders are so risky that they limit the bulk of their money to lend, and now the net , building blocks, and peer-to-peer sites like investment, and these small loan guarantee companies to help them over the regulation of the leverage ratio, this can be a compliance operation method? Wouldn't the regulators be concerned and banned?
In addition to say the question of the size of the loan, this is to give us love money and favorable outlets a praise, if the loan single pen control within 100,000, then we think this model can still be sustained. I see Love investment, block box above are millions of, tens of millions of of the loan, each look is shocking AH! To take a simple example, if the platform made a total of 1 billion of the loan, if the borrower on average 30,000, then 33,000 borrowers, if the single pen is 10 million, that is 100 customers, you know the statistical significance of the law of large numbers, It is necessary to be in the case of a large number of samples (more than tens of thousands of), in order to more and more conform to the law of normal distribution, statistically meaningful. So if the bad debt rate is 2%, the likelihood of a 2% per cent loan to 33,000 clients is much higher than the possibility of lending to 100 customers, because it is possible that the 100 customers have a small sample bias, resulting in a concentration of bad debts of 10% or higher, which is statistically significant. Small sample deviation "risk, corresponding to Peer-to-peer network loans, those who do a single larger scale of the loan of the site more risk.
In addition, the situation in China is that banks are not bothered to do tens of millions of millions of of customers, but the interest rate marketization process, because the bank itself to absorb deposits of interest costs rising, but also gradually in this part of the market customers, then left to small loans or guarantee companies are the bank to pick the rest of the customer. This part of the customer's risk is far higher than the bank customers, and you invest in and guarantee companies to cooperate with the Peer-to-peer companies are cast to the bank to choose the remaining or afraid to do the customer, so every time I love investment See uniform 10 million of the loan list, my little heart ah! We all know that bank stocks in the past few years has been in the two-tier market is very strong, basically to the value of net assets, what does this mean? That is to say, the possibility that a bank's loan itself has a lot of bad debts is likely to erode his registered capital, not to mention that the peer-to-peer companies that co-operate with the so-called guarantee companies hang out and let everyone scramble for the loan label?
think of that year research domestic small loan company and guarantee company industry, want to find some in the United States to the standard company to study, for several months, unexpectedly did not find a Ah! Because in the case of foreign interest rate marketization, the bank itself does the domestic small loan and guarantee company in the millions of of the borrower, and these wind control core competitiveness and other capabilities are owned by their own banks, will not and do not need to pass the risk to other so-called guarantee companies, So there is no such thing as a small loan company or a guarantee company that makes millions of of the list. So it seems that in the context of domestic interest rate liberalization, these small loans and guarantee companies will inevitably be squeezed by the banks have no food to eat (whining about the time the benefit of the net, building blocks box and love investment how to do? ）。 In foreign countries, although only banks to do millions of of corporate loans, but there are specialized to do hundreds of to tens of thousands of dollars to individuals and small business owners to borrow the non-bank institutions, such as the largest capitalone (hundreds of millions of dollars in the size of the assets), as well as Lending Club these, As for why these institutions can be differentiated and the bank competition and growth, this is a relatively big topic, the next time to talk deeply.
Finally, let's talk about the team and the investors, because has been seen in Peer-to-peer industry has a strange phenomenon, is like to say that our founder is from the industry's big financial companies, ah, we got the famous VCs and institutional investment Ah, so all the onlookers are snapped clap good ah reliable ah. See more of these, I can't help but to stand up and say a few words (alas this problem I must find time to change), some of our founding partners have previously invested in many financial companies in investment institutions, including banks, securities, insurance, security companies, financial leasing, third party payments, and so on, what is the problem? It's insiders. Banks, securities executives need the ability, including personality characteristics are completely different, even if even in the same loan business, do a few billion enterprises to borrow the head of the Wind control department, you let him to do thousands of of the amount of credit card audit, it is not completely. So I saw the executive team from the brokerage, what international investment agencies, even what the bank wind control in charge, these are actually farfetched, like a person who eat fish every day, you want him to describe what the taste of pork, but he has not eaten pork, even did not see pigs run, then how can he know? This is what the surgery industry has to specialize in, and the field that you delve into, you'll find, tens of thousands of yuan credit small microfinance core wind control model and our domestic traditional sense of all the borrowing agencies are not the same, including the bank's corporate loans, including small loans and guarantee companies to use the type of collateral, are completely different. But this industry has been developed in the United States for decades, such as CapitalOne in the 90 's can begin to do the field of personal subprime, the accumulation of data models and decision engine system is the current domestic peer-to-peer industry most need to learn from, may be the lending The club is concerned about more, in fact, CapitalOne is the originator of the industry (also known as the banking sector of Google). So the domestic current these 85 after that Peer-to-peer Internet finance founder executives such as from the big financial institutions in fact for small micro-loans in the financial industry is very unfamiliar, may just do industry research when listening to a few ears, and some just in these institutions played for six months a year soy sauce children, Wrote several projects ppt material feel life boring yourself out and a couple of rich second generation friends toss it, was promoted into financial wizards, young entrepreneurial model, and the entire team did not really have many years engaged in small microfinance wind control audit experience of people to really responsible for the wind control audit, think about is a very scary thing.
There are investors, if a peer-to-peer site to get the VC, what can be explained? What is the success rate of VC investment institution? 8% or so, then according to this historical data, then include a favorable network, love investment, building blocks and so on to get VC money future successful survival probability? 100 have 8 inside, then these 3 are not very large probability of one can not survive? (Statistics and probability of good students to check out, how such a surprise ah), then it seems to get VC investment in the survival of the money is lower? Probably because of the investment, greater pressure on performance and scale may not be developed in accordance with the original intention of the founders, the expansion of the scale is too fast and the risk of greater failure is more likely to cause it (alas I speak of the industry's secret, will someone already planning a round of assassination action?) ）。 In that view, the recent doubling of the net, and so on, has also proved this. Others talk of better regulation of institutional investors, which is a logical, naïve imagination of peripheral onlookers (that is, logically and wrongly), because in investment institutions, especially those VCs (which are particularly risky investments referred to as "VCs"), An investment manager manages a portfolio with more than 10 companies in general, some of the 30 (because the people in front of the project may have gone), and many are some children in the tube, not to mention that some foreign investment institutions do not understand China's situation, before like who invested in that a PG shirt or something, There are those who invest in the branch, such as guarantee company, are waiting for people to run the money in foreign countries to find an island home are settled well just found. If someone put this peer-to-peer web platform based on the unreliable to see if there is any institutional investment in the basis of logic, then I advise you to eyes it.
said so much, summed up, judge a responsible and reliable Peer-to-peer Internet company, should have the following standards:
have their own core competitiveness, master wind control capabilities. See "Credit Outsourcing", "guarantee company cooperation" The word of the hurried detour
Single-pen control under 100,000, see the site hanging out more than 1 million of the borrowing target, immediately should be from the account to write off
Check the Executive team members list, in addition to those dazzling so-called "foreign financial institutions" work experience, brokerage, bank, etc., but also to see if there is no real "eat pork", or at least "see Pig Run" in the overseas similar Capitalone,ge money,lending A person who has worked in a club or other institution. If not, then congratulations to your friend, you recharge the money is to help this Peer-to-peer website to do experiments, so that a group of 85 children, only milking people to help you raise pigs, he may only according to previous experience to the pig grazing, this pig can live can only see luck.
Are there any formal cooperation agencies, including Third-party payments, rating cards, wind control system suppliers, etc.
Other policies AH compliance ah, we are talking about more, the cliché does not say, which day have time can also come to a good talk.
