Mobile Internet: Who has ascended Noah's Ark?

When Tencent relied on micro-mail to get tickets to the mobile internet, countless entrepreneurs fell on the eve of the dawn, and more PC Internet giants struggled in the throes of the brutal reality of the mobile internet industry throughout the 2012.

There are users, no income, many app-type mobile entrepreneurs in the 2012 to face the biggest confusion, when the capital market quickly encounter cold, VCs stop to the founders after blood transfusion, a large number of entrepreneurs fell in the winter.

In this unpredictable year, Tencent, Baidu, Alibaba and other PC internet giants with a complex mood to kill into the Big River mobile Internet, when they bring resources quickly to kill some grassroots entrepreneurs, these companies have erupted a lot of contradictions inside, because when the user's use of time quickly from the PC to mobile internet , the growth of the traditional business of PC Internet giants has been affected, and the new mobile business is difficult to contribute to revenue in the short term, it is easy to provoke a variety of contradictions within the company, the giant's wandering may become a small number of grassroots entrepreneurs.

We visited a number of entrepreneurs, investors, summed up the 2012 years of mobile internet industry trend.

In the long run, the mobile Internet is still very bullish. In 2013, the entire mobile internet market will continue to grow at a high rate, even the first listed mobile internet companies will emerge. But the fruit of this victory does not belong to most entrepreneurs.

Looking forward to 2013, operators and Tencent's micro-mail will probably be the largest two engines to drive the entire mobile internet industry.

Capital Turn Cold

"For mobile internet, capital in 2011 is extremely optimistic, 2012 is extremely pessimistic." Lei Feng founder Lin Jun to the reporter regrets, the same investment target, the 2011 valuation in 50 million yuan, 2012 users a lot of growth, the value may shrink to 30 million or 40 million yuan.

"Last year capital was in the layout of the mobile Internet, everyone in the looting site, pay attention to the project quickly." "A long-term focus on mobile Internet VC investors said that 2011 can be called the year of mobile Internet, because 2010 mobile internet also see no signs, and in 2011, a large number of mobile internet companies to obtain financing, due to investment speed, Many of the mobile Internet projects that were later proven to be bad have been financed, and for a time, the entrepreneurial and investment of mobile internet has reached a frenzy.

And into the 2012, capital began to turn cold quickly. The most immediate reason is the cold of U.S. capital markets, the suspension of a large number of Chinese companies lining up for U.S. listings, which has left many funds unable to cash in and no new funds to invest in new entrepreneurial projects. "There is less hot money in the market. The forest Army concluded that in 2011, the market for the best mobile Internet start-up projects less, and a lot of money, and 2012 start-up projects a large increase in money has been reduced, supply and demand changes led to the valuation of the venture project shrinkage.

Still, most mobile internet companies have grown fast this year, benefiting from the big bonus of smartphones.

"2012, many good mobile internet companies, users are 10 times times, 20 times times the growth." Chenchen points out that, for example, popular apps like Camera360, the number of users this year has grown dramatically.

"Investors ' mentality has become more rational this year," he said. Chenchen said after several years of development, the first wave of mobile internet entrepreneurship has basically been the outcome, including mobile phone application stores, mobile social, mobile advertising pattern has been preliminarily laid, several potential large companies have been the field of the "pit", mobile internet entrepreneurship and investment will gradually enter the plowing stage.

"Next year the entire mobile internet investment will become more sensible and more early." Wang Lijie, an angel investor in Mobile Internet, points out that many VC companies are starting to focus on early mobile internet projects and even setting up early-stage investment funds.

However, many investors are doomed not to have a good mood to spend the year to invest in mobile internet projects in the first half of the fund, by the end of the year, most of them became very uncomfortable, because most of the startups they invested were unable to generate their own cash flow, and then refinancing after the second half, when the market quickly turned cold, Projects can only be financed at a discount.

Compared with the companies that first circled the users to find business models, mobile interconnection, a mature business model, fully enjoyed the dividends of the rapid growth of the market this year.

"Do the app company, be sure to calm down, the product, do not stare at the money." Chen Yu, vice president of the business card Almighty Wang, said the company's revenue growth this year, thanks to cooperation with many industry clients, is now the biggest part of the company's revenue from the mobile phone card recognition software to operators, handset manufacturers pre-installed. In contrast, some domestic companies offering free business card identification services are facing challenges. These mobile internet companies, with steady incomes, continue to be in the hot pursuit of capital for more than 2012 years.

Moving traffic is hard to find

Another reason why capital is starting to turn cold on the mobile internet is that most mobile internet companies are still not showing up well this year.

"We've invested in a tool app that has 40 million users, but it's not making money, and mobile internet traffic is not going to sell at all," he said. "A well-known US investment fund investor told reporters that the company's investment in many projects, have encountered similar confusion."

In the early days of smartphone start-up, a large number of grassroots entrepreneurs into the field, they are angry birds, such as the small number of money-making applications as an example, to create a variety of app applications. As a result, hardware vendors, represented by Apple, have greatly facilitated their hardware sales by leveraging the rich software they offer, and most mobile developers have been caught in the confusion of making money.

So why are most app-type mobile internet entrepreneurs making no money?

"China Mobile Internet Transformation Mode, there is no outside, games, E-commerce, advertising a few main forces." Wangxi, the CEO of a mobile search company in Shenzhen, points out that the mobile Internet is more O2O than a PC.

At present, mobile phone games have been rapid development this year, and mobile advertising and mobile E-commerce traffic is still in the early days.

Market research company emarketer data show: In addition to short MMS, including mobile display class and search advertising, in mainland China, 2012 market size reached 196 million U.S. dollars, compared to 2011, the increase of more than 80%, is expected to reach 314 million U.S. dollars in 2013.

Whether mobile advertising can form a huge market, there has been no small controversy in the country. Baidu CEO Robin Li, giant Flow wireless CEO Sansanmu as the representative of the faction that the mobile phone because of small screen and other reasons, the market size of advertising is not as good as the PC. For example, in the Sina PC version of the home page has more than 200 advertising positions, and Sina Weibo's mobile clients only have a banner advertising position of the current entire mobile advertising market income, it is also difficult to feed so many mobile internet practitioners.

Easy Media Mobile advertising platform general manager Shanga said that the entire mobile advertising market this year, including fast-moving, automotive, it digital, financial and many other industries brand advertisers have begun to have an independent mobile advertising budget. "We have several more than 3 million mobile ads here," said the company. More than 1 million of a single pen, almost every month. "Shanga said.

"Perhaps everyone is too anxious, in fact, the growth of domestic mobile advertising is very fast." Shanga points out that after all, mobile advertising in the country only a year or two history, and advertising and agency budget allocation has a lag effect, "by next year, almost all advertisers will have a separate budget to move

Advertising. "Shanga said.

He also pointed out that to solve the problem of small mobile phone screen, it needs to be solved by technology. For example, through HTML5 technology, so that the effect of mobile advertising more optimized, or add mobile phone location, map, interactive features. Mobile ads tend to be more accurate than PC ads, such as the precise placement of ads on a particular model (such as the iphone), or targeted placement in a particular area.

And Google's mobile advertising platform AdMob related to reporters that the domestic already has several teams from AdMob to the advertising fee reached "million-dollar level."

In the mobile E-commerce this piece, subject to mobile payment immature and other factors, the current market size is still very small. In the third quarter of this year, China's total e-commerce transaction size exceeded 2 trillion yuan, while the mobile operators trading scale of only about 15 billion, but the growth rate is quite alarming, up to 401.3%.

At present, the largest increase in mobile E-commerce from Taobao, Beijing-east mobile phone clients, and PC E-commerce can be in the pages of the reverse flow of the situation is different, other mobile phone app to pour traffic to E-commerce company's app is relatively complex, which is hindering the development of mobile E-commerce is an important reason.

"To price war-oriented mobile electric business, dead, because in the online parity is too easy, no money to earn, it is difficult to serve good customers, satisfaction will also decline." Angel investor Wang Lijie pointed out. He said that the explosion of mobile electricity dealers to wait for the life of the electric dealer development, this is what people often say O2O (from line to line).

"In the long run, O2O may be a significant source of liquidity for mobile internet, but not so fast." Wangxi points out that it will take years. Wangxi believes that the O2O market is much slower than people think, because the business model of O2O is the essence of collecting fees, and handling fees are often the most difficult to receive.

Angel investor Wang Lijie expressed a similar view, saying he is optimistic about the opportunities in the O2o field, but it will take years to nurture.

Combined with the above information, the large-scale transformation of domestic mobile internet traffic has a long way to go. Prior to that, most mobile internet practitioners who could not get new financing might need to "scrimp and tighten" to survive the winter.

Mobile game explosion

Mobile gaming is the only major revenue-generating branch of China Mobile internet this year.

"The total size of the domestic mobile game could reach 5 billion this year (counting the games in the operator's market and feature handsets), and Apple's iOS platform is still the biggest market, but the Android phone game has exploded particularly fast in the second half of the month," the founder of the game's grand Panorama predicted.

Developed by the Shanghai Games, "Immortal Road" Apple iOS version, called this year's mobile gaming industry a dark horse.

Heart Game CEO Huang Yimeng told reporters, "Immortal Road," The iOS version listed at the beginning of the year, to the end, the monthly income from the Apple Store is close to 20 million yuan.

"We didn't initially have a particularly high expectation for the mobile version of Immortal Road, and it was far more than we imagined." "Huang Yimeng points out that the monthly income of 20 million of the data can be compared with PC games, not to mention the" Immortal Road "of the Android version is not officially online.

In addition to the heartbeat game, this year several families have paid tens of millions of mobile phone game companies. Digital Stone This year's results doubled again, the company's founder Wu gang excitedly to the staff of the free distribution of tens of millions of yuan worth of shares, and bought 4 BMW Car award to the company executives.

"Mobile games and web games are very different. Huang Yimeng points out, interestingly, every day "Immortal Road" mobile phone version of the largest number of online at about 12 o'clock in the morning. Because the game is set at this point in time some things will get reset, if it is playing games on the PC, many people are already asleep at this moment. And the mobile version, many people can lie in bed and play. In addition, mobile games and PC web games online time is very different. PC games tend to be online, while mobile gamers use a lot of fragmented time to log in.

The big outbreak of mobile game has carried on the effective cash feedback to the whole mobile internet ecology. The direct beneficiaries are some mobile advertising platforms, as well as mobile internet entrepreneurs.

Huang Yimeng pointed out that the "Immortal Road" in the promotion channel is mainly through the promotion of Mobile advertising Alliance, the effect is more obvious this routine and the PC Web game promotion similar way. Huang Yimeng said that the current mobile game promotion costs are still far below the PC's Web game.

The outbreak of mobile games first led to the increase in channel income. With 91 mobile phone assistants as the representative of the manufacturers are the most direct beneficiaries, because the distribution of mobile games is very dependent on the application store and other channels to promote. 91 of the company's financial results show that in the third quarter of 2012, 91 of the revenue reached 86 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 370%. Also benefited are Tencent, 360, when the music, UC and other mobile game channels.

Yong, CEO of Hot Games, predicts that the biggest variables of 2013 mobile gaming may come from mobile gaming. The industry has been rumored to have 300 million users of Tencent micro-letter, will likely launch a gaming platform.

He argues that mild social games, which are already on the decline of PCs, are likely to make a comeback on mobile phones and gain better profits than PCs. In the PC era, many white-collar and other high-end users do not have time to play heavy games, and on the mobile phone, these high-end users are likely to use their own fragmented time to play the game.

Yong also predicts that 2013 operators will have a big impact on the mobile gaming market. "Operators of the base are commercialized, more transparent, closer to the game of the intermodal market play." "Yong pointed out that the number of users of the operator is huge, you can customize the mobile phone pre-installed, SMS Direct push way to release the game, and has a powerful place to push outlets, the power of this channel cannot be belittled."

Tangled Giants

In the 2012, including Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, Shanda and other traditional PC internet giants in the field of mobile Internet rapid Force, become this year the largest market increment.

By the end of 2012, Tencent's users had risen rapidly to 300 million, and micro-letters had been recognized as the first entry point for the future China Mobile Internet.

A US fund investor who also invests in mobile social products says that, in fact, several key nodes in the emergence of micro-credit are worth summarizing. One is the micro-letter full import QQ Address book, so that users can be added to the micro-letter QQ friends; second, micro-letter can be checked QQ mail; third, micro-letter can accept QQ offline message.

In other words, the most direct reason for the rise of micro-trust is that Tencent has introduced QQ's core social resources.

In addition, the micro-letter is a good grasp of the current mobile Internet changes fast characteristics, through a very frequent product iterations quickly put other competitors behind, including two-dimensional code scanning, shaking, micro-group, web version of micro-letter, Web page map and many other new functions on line, greatly enriched the micro-letter product experience.

Among these, the most interesting is the microblogging public platform of the online, which began to detonate the micro-letter on the entrepreneurial boom. There has even been a venture capital fund to invest in micro-credit entrepreneurs.

In addition to Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, Shanda and other giants also began to be widely used in mobile internet layout. Alibaba high Price Stakes in the Mo, and Baidu bought dim sum.

The entry of Internet giants provides a good channel for the exit of many small start-up companies. This year, a large number of companies that have struggled to make independent profits in the short term have begun to accept investment and survive.

One of the more dramatic when Tencent and the 360 of the Brush Machine elves in Shenzhen, the Brush Machine Channel Company had received 360 of the investment, but Tencent then acquired 360 other shares, become its major shareholder, so that 360 forced to sell the company's shares.

It can be seen that the traditional Internet giants in the field of mobile Internet investment more around the flow of the entrance, the competition is very brutal.

"The domestic internet giants in the mobile want to do things are very similar, have to do platform, between the inevitable competition, in order to faster than others, it will be achieved through acquisitions." Chenchen, vice president of King Lam Capital, said that the acquisition of a start-up company, the internet giant often shortened a business half a year of development time.

Internet giants such as Baidu and Tencent are slowing, but they have a lot of cash on their books, and investing in mobile internet companies is a common option. In the 2012, many of the internet giants ' investments were defensive, as rivals began to exert themselves in the field.

"The PC Internet giant is no longer laid out, and the future may be overturned." "Search CEO Wangxi pointed out that this year, the appropriate search, UC, 91 and other established mobile internet companies to maintain a high-speed growth, 2013 will be some leading mobile internet companies to take the lead, to 2014, 2015 will be the emergence of mobile internet companies on the market climax."

"Next year will be a year of decline for PC Internet companies. Wangxi points out that with the rapid popularity of smartphones, the flow of many PC Internet companies next year will likely stop growing, and the giant who is poorly laid out on the mobile internet will be at great risk.

Wangxi, the traditional PC Internet giant, the faster the transition to mobile Internet, the faster its revenues fall, the opportunity for grassroots entrepreneurs. For example, the current mobile search advertising price is only one-tenth of the PC search, so the PC Internet giant will be in the transition to the mobile business to worry about factors such as earnings. "The PC Internet giant in the tangled process, the opportunity is missed, this is pure mobile internet company's opportunity, barefoot not afraid of shoes." Wangxi pointed out that the mobile Internet is a good opportunity for the industry to shuffle.

This kind of judgment is not without basis, most PC Internet giants in the transition to mobile business will face both hand and hand, the internal contradictions of the situation.

For example, Baidu CEO Robin Li this year on the mobile internet, a "sing empty" speech has sparked the industry's great controversy.

"This (mobile internet) is like a wine driving situation, luxury car, beauty, rain, road slippery, driving to 180 miles, accidentally will be fatal, very exciting, but very dangerous." Li said in his speech. Li said that the PC era screen is growing, making advertising valuable, and mobile screen is so large, if the ads, there is little room to put content.

A number of mobile internet insiders pointed out that Li's speech revealed Baidu's failure to judge the mobile business. Baidu's revenue growth will be at risk of stagnation when the user's Internet time is quickly shifted from PC to mobile.

And Baidu similar, Tencent Internal also in the mobile business rhythm problem broke out a lot of contradictions. Because of the rapid growth of micro-letters, Tencent's many of the original business has been hit, Tencent wireless business Unit's performance this year by the micro-letter of great influence, and micro-letter also let Tencent QQ active degree was threatened.

A number of people close to Zhangxiaolong, the head of the micro-credit business, confirmed to reporters that Zhangxiaolong on the commercialization of micro-credit and Tencent's other business unit has been a lot of differences. Tencent's other business units, such as the gaming department, are keen to import the huge traffic resources into the game as soon as possible, but "Zhangxiaolong against turning the micro-letters into a pure flow-back."

and Tencent encountered similar troubles and Sina, Sina insiders pointed out that the mobile phone from Sina Weibo client traffic has accounted for its total of 70%, but the mobile client Weibo only contributed less than 20% of its advertising revenue. The liquidity of mobile business is far inferior to PC business.

Do you want to quickly transfer PC users to the mobile business? Is the worry that every giant needs to face.