Full Moon Insurance: a little wager.

In a few days is the mid-Autumn Festival, this year with the Mid-Autumn Festival related to the industry topic, is probably that Taobao "full moon risk", how many people can get compensation, how many to pay out. This reminds me of the http://www.aliyun.com/zixun/aggregation/4774.html "> World Cup Finals, when some of our friends and colleagues will also open a disk, respectively, betting." Only the World Cup is football, the moon is the risk of watching the lunar-very similar. In fact, the analysis of the full moon insurance can be counted as a "gambling ball", so it can cause so many people's curiosity.

To be honest, hear the details of the full moon insurance, Miao uncle's first reaction is that this can be used to make a betting platform. Since we can be Spain or Holland who won the World Cup betting, it will naturally also for the mid-autumn day to see whether Guangzhou is the moon betting. There is a bookmaker behind the game, and they will immediately adjust the "handicap" to the odds according to the past winning rate and the current ratio, in order to ensure that the banker has a stable income. There is a poor performance has to do gimmick marketing of foreign insurance companies, according to the past weather probability, to the various regions of the group, using the law of large numbers to calculate the rate of premium (with the odds is very similar to it), and then announced the number, you buy how much, see the moon I pay how

Some fans of the full moon may say, "Tie!" We are a good financial innovation, how you this thief Bird said so unbearable. Want that gamble, is to obtain the benefit for, the wager, the heart is to gamble to win, I this insurance, is to protect the accident after the damage reduction, in the mind is the gambling loss ... Oh no, but the things that are insured do not happen. The two are diametrically opposed to risk preferences.

But wait a minute. Gambling, especially the development of the game for so many years, in fact, has long been out of the "bet win" a play, now there are a lot of betting people want to lose, the principle and futures industry almost identical, is hedging risk. For example, I am a Dutch fan, and in the final I will buy Spain to win. If I lose the bet, then my favorite team wins the championship, I am equal to make a contribution with own wager money (self comfort ha); If the wager wins, that I although want to be for the Orange Clothing Regiment's fall sad, but fortunately has the gambling money to be able to drop the bag ... How much I would like to spend on betting depends on the monetization of my happiness and sadness.

This is actually the true meaning of the old saying: small gambling is satisfying, gambling is a pernicious harm. Look forward to "win", which is to put the expectations and bets on the same side, the possible risks and pleasures are multiplied by several times, ups and downs, the body and wallet are very dangerous; look forward to "gambling loss" is the expectation and betting on the balance at both ends, although less stimulation, but there is always one side does not fall, in line with human "risk aversion" nature. This is why many countries have allowed legal bets (including lottery). Since gambling has become an amusement, it is placed under state control to contain risks and, as a banker, to make huge profits.

We use this logic to look back at the "Full Moon risk", in fact, it can be seen, it and the kind of expectation of "gambling loss" of the game is not very different, played a role in hedging. Really want to see the moon that day people, buy this risk is certainly hope "not pay" is "lose" to the insurance company, and the premium expenditure? Like Miao uncle's ego comfort, "spend money, to buy a face to the moon luck," is also the mood of the ego comfort.

It may be said that if I am a weather expert, understand Guangzhou this place in the past 20 years the Mid-Autumn Festival is cloudy, then I go to buy 10,000 insurance, spend 20 to 50, also small earn 300,000-this is actually not feasible, because Taobao rules, a user ID can only buy one insurance. From this regulation, Taobao itself is aware of the "full Moon risk" of gambling, so the use of rigid regulations to limit. In addition, and before the start and even in the game can bet the ball different, Taobao full moon risk in the mid-autumn festival nearly 20 days before the cessation of sales, in order to prevent the validity of the weather forecast, increase speculative elements, this also illustrates the same consideration.

Another said, as you say, insurance is not all gambling, life insurance is to gamble with health, insurance is with traffic betting, and so on. This time to say a core principle of insurance, is the principle of insurable interest. If you insure against someone or something, then the insured, who is the beneficiary, needs to have an insurable interest. Insurable interest has four parts: legal interest, economic price, certainty and interest. The full moon risks away from the insurance, close to the gambling place, in this fourth element, the interest relationship.

I went to the ball and the game ended up not having a direct stake in me, and I still had the possibility of getting the benefit, which was gambling. The interest of personal accident insurance of auto insurance life, I need not repeat it. Also some people want to say, you just said, bet when you also have a mood problem, bet lost mood good, bet win money but bad mood, but this does not make the results of your personal relationship with the interest? Note that this and the full moon risk their own propaganda word is very close, it is guaranteed that "because the mid-autumn Festival can not see the moon and the mood loss."

With the benefit of insurance as a watershed, insurance and gambling finally have a clear division. The starting point of insurance is protection, if a catastrophe has a certain ratio to occur, after this happens, the individual will not be able to cope, then all the people who are threatened by this scourge are gathered together to fund, to protect the person who is indeed a disaster, because this person may be himself, so everyone is "insurance self." Gambling has nothing to do with group security, only 0 and games for individuals and everyone else.

One of the reasons why I think about writing this today is that some of the pro-Taobao media are describing the full moon risk, in accordance with the usual practice, to boast of a revolution in financial innovation. With Alibaba has the substantive cooperation of Ping An group, this time because did not participate in the full moon risk, also was buckled on the "conservative" "Do not Innovate" hat, wantonly ridiculed. In fact, the main income of the safe insurance business from the lucrative life insurance, which is related to human life and health events, how can introduce betting mechanism to do what "innovation."

The full moon risk in the design is a weather game, to cater to the majority of people small bet a watch lively psychology; in marketing with the help of Taobao has always been a strong public relations ability, ushered in a cheering sound, but its innovation is really here at the end. One side effect of the media boom is that everyone has to grab the "News of the story" ship, but the depth of the accumulation of views is not everyone has, so poor traditional industry can only be shot, by a group of Internet supremacy as a target, with a plausible pattern set to prove that they "old-fashioned" Vested interests "Don't think ahead", pathetic as the internet marketing gun.