Gem high price starting bottom: 60% pricing look at investment banking face

Financial weekly investment Banking laboratory researcher Zhang/Wen 45, which is up to press before the shares listed this year and break the number of shares, accounting for all this year's IPO one-third.　　In fact, in retrospect earlier this year, the intense issuance of large-cap stocks has created a number of break records since the resumption of the IPO in 2009 years, such as China's electricity from the West (601179.SH), the first day of the IPO to the end of a diving break close; In Tuesday, the first day of the debut of the Silk (002404.SZ) was the first day of the listing break tragedy. A little bit better is the first love of the Day (002403.SZ) and and Thailand (002402.SZ), the former can at least guarantee the above price, the latter has even double-digit gains.　　But the next day, "out of the crowd" and Thailand, together with the other two boat group ate a drop stop. Visible recent new shares break down the space unprecedented, and give them this space is high price, in the diving world, is 3 meters and 10 meters Taiwan difference.　　This time, the perpetrator, who is thought to stand on the 10 meter platform, is the 148-dollar sky-high price issue of the Sea of Puri (002399.SZ). The first day of its listing to rob a-share of the top price shares, regardless of the body with heavy warehouse of the National Technology (300077.SZ) World War.　　In its defeat, the SME board, the new group started a break trip. "The number of breaks, the short time period, is rare in recent years." For these high-priced shares of the investment bank, face fear lost. "One Shanghai investment banker laments, but he thinks it's not a bad thing for investment banks," it's more important to focus on market signals and adjust the pricing range than to lose face.　　"There are 10 meters on the platform, there are people on the table."　　In fact, the IPO price depends on the two factions: one side is the sponsor and issuer, the other side is the inquiry agency, connected to them is a top-secret material. When the issuer's application for materials has been approved by the SFC, the sponsoring agency will recommend the listed company to the inquiry agency (in accordance with the provisions issued by the SFC more than 400 million shares must have 50 inquiry Agency's effective quotation to determine the IPO price, less than 400 million shares must have 20), need to prepare another material,　　This material, together with the prospectus, is the most important basis for pricing, and its scientific name is the investment value Study report. According to the SFC regulations, you can see that the top secret report of the inquiry only 7 categories: Fund companies, securities companies, insurance, trusts, finance companies, QFII and other institutions authorized by the SFC. "Usually the price of a fund company is the most important.　　The investment bankers told reporters, followed by brokerage and insurance. The biggest difference between the research report and the prospectus is that the investment bank offers itself a pricing range.　　This is simply a suggestion by the investment bank that the inquiry agency is free to value the offer. After the preliminary inquiry is over, the issuers and investment banks of the SME board and the gem can determine the mostFinal pricing, the motherboard will need to carry out a second round of the cumulative bid inquiry.　　On the surface, such inquiry mechanism is fair and reasonable, the division of labor is in place, but there are always problems in the actual operation. "First of all, the provisions of the inquiry, the price from the high from the low, which is a technical inquiry agency is alive." "The investment bankers said.　　To cite a simple example, if the pricing interval of 9-10 yuan, 11 yuan must be able to check, the newspaper 8 of the affirmation can not, 9.5 may be able to, this rule led to the price of inquiry agencies can only report or reported in the pricing range of investment banks. "Indeed it is." Sometimes we estimate a value range, and then we find that the price range below the investment bank adjusts the valuation so that it just falls within the range.　　"One of the brokers who attended the inquiry said. He said: "In fact, the model of quotation is always the PE method, in this method need to calculate the data on two EPs (per share) and PE (P/E), the product is the price." EPS is calculated according to the financial data of the listed companies; PE is the basis of the average P/E in the same industry, and set a reasonable interval. "So the fair pricing system eventually evolved into one party kidnapping the other."　　According to Financial weekly statistics, in 2010 to achieve the listing of 130 stocks, 53 stocks are disclosed in the risk Notification bulletin, the final price is higher than the investment bank to give the pricing interval cap; the remaining issue prices are in the interval given by the investment bank; none of the offers is below the lower limit. Refraction industry unspoken rules "These are common phenomena." "There is no project for your own securities firm," said a brokerage analyst familiar with the inquiry report. How do you recommend your company's projects after such a low estimate? Therefore, when the preparation of the inquiry report, the given PE is generally the industry average is higher than the local forecast. And Hepalink is an exception, the brokerage inquiry report on the valuation is generally lower than the IPO price, we all think it is the small and medium-sized Board of PetroChina (601857.SH).　　"This phenomenon is because in the brokerage, the preparation of the inquiry report and the final offer is not a department, directly involved in the quotation is generally the securities brokerage private sector, and Hepalink is also 53 to disclose the price of the IPO pricing range of one of the listed companies. Although the net under the purchase of chips in three months before the lifting of the ban, but most organizations in order to grab chips, hope that they can be checked. "To determine the price of the issue there is a normal distribution factor."　　The investment bankers said that the price of a number of requests for quotations, at the most prices for the final.　　So the agencies began to try to figure out their own quotes, preferring to quote a higher price Bo check rate, also unwilling to report a waste of garbage prices (deep in the Shanghai regulations vary). The high pricing range is also easy to take place in projects undertaken by big investment banks, which said: "Under the underwriting system, only the big investment banks dare to issue a higher price, otherwise the high-priced underwriting not go out, they do not have the money to buy." "It's just that the unspoken rules run into bear marketsIt's a tragedy-when the new shares break, it's the day the institutions are trapped. "When the market is good, the price of the issue may also be rushed, but as long as the bear infestation, whether you are large or medium-sized plate stocks, the break will break."　　"In his view, the break, as well as innovation, is a result of the interests of all parties," the investment bankers said. There is a loophole in the system that the issuer's petty gestures lead to an institutional miscalculation.　　"Participants in the inquiry said that, in addition to investment banks and inquiry agencies, the issuer's own actions sometimes let the inquiry agency Abyss, his experience comes from the Gem 28 stars of Shenzhou (300002.SZ)." China Tai Yue is a strange listed company.　　October 29 last year, the company issued a bulletin that 3rd (October 26, 2009) Public announcements in the listing of the wrong data, 2009 three EPs from 2.40 to 2.14. The whole process has made the agency suspicious--one of the pricing basis of EPS and the mechanism to predict the general difference between the huge. The company's rhetoric "negligence of employees" has failed to quell the suspicions of the brokers: "The latest financial data in the IPO bulletin was released without an audit, which seriously affected our judgment on the fundamentals, although the pricing period has passed, but it is not conducive to the organization to prepare a summary of future inquiries. Imagine how a company's three-quarter operating situation could be so different from the Chinese newspaper? Is our original inquiry forecast wrong? "The organization is in accordance with the 2009 (the third quarter of the price of data did not come out) and the company's first three annual report of EPS data for the inquiry, forecast its 2009 EPS reasonable interval of 2 yuan." As a result, its original data showed that EPS reached 2.4 in the three quarter, so that 2009 EPS was not all underestimated by the agency? In fact, because of the high price issue, the stock has been raised 1.2 billion yuan.