HA: Short-term monetary policy turned unrealistic

Wang bin Xiaofi July hot weather Unusual, can and this summer temperature match, is the current constantly exceeding people's expectations of the heat of credit data.　　The credit data for June, recently released, reached 1.53 trillion trillion yuan, exceeding the market's expected highest value. Recently, in Hangzhou, the first financial daily and Huaan Fund jointly held the "International Vision of Chinese wisdom," Hua an Rui Zhi salon, the chief economist of CICC, Dr Ha, in an interview with CBN reporters that the credit data is high, but the policy in the short-term direction of adjustment is not realistic. "We are still keeping the forecasts for this year's credit increment unchanged," he said. "said Ha.　　Earlier, in the first quarter after the issuance of credit data, CICC issued a report that the annual new loans do not exclude the 9 trillion yuan. In addition, HA also believes that the government's direction to stimulate the economy in the region and industry to make appropriate changes in order to find the best balance between growth and restructuring.　　He also expressed concern about the current trend of rapid asset price increases.　　Future focus on GDP and CPI CBN: What do you think about the current huge amount of credit, and whether the policy can make some adjustments in the current situation? HA: I think it is unrealistic for policy to have a directional adjustment in the short term. This year the whole macro-policy is to maintain its original direction, that is, positive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy.　　We are now seeing the central bank operating more aggressively in the open market because of the rapid increase in loan growth in June, and the increasing number of recent maturities, and more of a return on currency than a contraction. Why is it so hard to make a big adjustment to the policy? From a small point of view, in the current structure of loans, medium and long-term loans accounted for 50%~60%, which is used to fund long-term projects, especially infrastructure projects, the project itself will take several years to complete. If the loan is now stuck, it is likely to create considerable losses. On the big side, our economic recovery is not solid enough, on the one hand, private sector investment is not strong enough, the economic rebound or rely on government investment driven. On the other hand, external demand is still relatively weak.　　By the time these two things have changed, the policy may be at the moment of adjustment. In the future, we need to focus on two indicators, one is CPI, currently negative growth, and the other is GDP. When GDP growth reaches or exceeds 8%, and the CPI is positive, there is a need to focus on future inflation risks, and the need for monetary policy adjustment increases. And this time estimated to appear at the end of this year central Economic work conference before and after.　　At that time, the latest GDP and CPI data could support some adjustment in policy.　　From the weak links to stimulate economic CBN: just talk about government investment led to this round of economic rebound, now everyone is considering how to make the economic recovery is sustainable, what do you suggest? HA: Now the economic rebound is a fact, and people usuallyLinking this rebound to economic recovery now needs to see where the underlying economic growth momentum is. Whether the stimulus generated by this round of government investment will eventually activate the needs of the population is still worth seeing. Although the government has adopted a stimulus policy, the inherent power of economic development cannot keep pace, and there will be overcapacity again.　　The backlog of early production capacity is mostly to meet the external demand development, now external demand growth may face structural, inflection point of decline, policy needs from a real private perspective to stimulate demand. Therefore, we can change the angle, to stimulate the original weak link, such as in the region more to stimulate the development of the Midwest. The comparative advantage of the current allocation of funds may be in the inland rather than in the coastal areas, while the inland regions are now able to attract relatively high-quality talent.　　Production management technology, capital, talent these three elements, the advantages of coastal areas are currently desalination, the inland region in the fast pursuit of the Midwest, whether from the infrastructure or income levels are far lower than the coastal cities, the development of the Midwest has an advantage in the economy, now is a good opportunity. There is a focus on the region, as well as in the industry.　　Our past development has been largely a high-energy, inefficient economy, if in the industry we develop greener, more energy-saving, more scientific and technological green economy, thus can increase production capacity, with advanced capacity to eliminate backward capacity stock, so that both the growth and adjustment of the industrial structure, in the growth and restructuring to find a point of integration. Asset price increases are indeed too fast. CBN: Asset prices have risen rapidly for some time, some think it is the current part of the credit flow to the stock market or the property market, some people think it may be related to hot money. What do you think of this problem?　　Is there a bubble in asset prices now? HA: Asset price inflation is really too fast, but it is hard to estimate how much credit is currently going into the stock market.　　Indeed, in the context of rapid currency growth, expectations of future inflation are strong, and this expectation also makes people feel the need to add value to their assets rather than to store them, which can lead to higher asset prices. In addition, although domestic capital projects did not open up, blocking the inflow of hot money is difficult, now hot money inflows and has been very different.　　There is no basic data support, but compared to the first quarter of this year and last year's four quarterly data, the unexplained portion of the increase in foreign exchange reserves, which was largely negative in the four quarter last year, was essentially zero in the first quarter. The rise in asset prices may have something to do with hot money, but our loose monetary policy may play a bigger role. China's M2 growth rate is 26%, the United States 9%, we M2 with GDP growth rate of about 20%, the United States 12%. This is the result of the combination of internal and external. In the early 90, external factors played a bigger role when large sums of money flowed to emerging markets, which were not as loose as they are now. What we're seeing today is that both sides of the liquid level are rising andTilt to emerging markets, so we see Brazil's stock price rise first in dollar terms, while China's a-share is the first in the currency, and far ahead. The stock market and the economy are still closely related, the current economic rebound and recovery, its sustainability remains to be seen, then the rise in asset prices can also be a question mark.