Housing inventory crisis false: In short supply or artificially manufactured

October 22, the Beijing Bureau of Statistics released the first three quarters of the real estate market data, as of September, residential sales in Beijing area of 1.186 million square meters, down from August to 29.6%, a decline of 29.7% than July. The month's residential sales were 9,000 sets, down 37.4% from August, and volume reached its lowest level since March this year.　　The reason for the big decline in home sales is a big reduction in supply: This 1-September, Beijing's new house starts to 11.691 million square meters, down 22.4% year-on-year.　　Almost at the same time, Minsheng Bank real Estate Finance department issued the China Real Estate finance Blue Book, said this January, the Beijing property market to inventory needs about 24 months (according to monthly sales of 12,000 sets of calculations), and by the end of September this year, the housing inventory has only enough 5 months of sales.　　Has Beijing's property market been at the crossroads of supply? Qin Jing, director of Deutsche Bank China, said in an interview with the reporter that supply and demand is a dynamic concept, it is difficult to take a point of inventory to measure the current situation of the housing market. And there is no such thing as an alarm line for urban housing inventories.　　He cited, for example, that in early 2008, when no one bought a house, that was a serious excess of inventory, but at that time the inventory was probably not more than now.　　The stock is not the final determinant of house price housing inventory, also known as housing sales, usually refers to have been approved pre-sale permission, but has not been the market to digest the part. According to the type of property, the housing can be sold including commercial housing and other properties of the sale, in accordance with the market housing completion, is divided into the pre-sale and the house can be sold two major categories.　　The study of commodity housing market inventory, reference to the commercial housing sales, including commodity housing pre-sale and home can be sold, both of which constitute the total amount of merchandise residential sales. The impact of inventory on house prices is mainly based on changes in supply and marketing. Inventory growth, often in the supply growth, weak trading environment, through the market adjustment, house prices will be reduced correspondingly, vice versa. However, this situation is predicated on the assumption that other conditions are unchanged.　　Real market conditions, affecting the price trend of many factors, inventory on the trend of house prices just play a part of the role. Gu, vice president of China Housing and Industrial Research Association, said in an interview with our correspondent that demand is not released according to average speed, there may be a lot of time, there may be little time, supply is so, at the same time has a certain lag effect.　　This imbalance may bring short-term fluctuations in the property market. China Index Institute to provide our correspondent 2008-2009 years of sales of the Beijing-Shenzhen stock trend change chart shows that the beginning of 2008 to the end of the three cities sold all the way up, at the end of 2008 at the beginning of 2009 to reach the peak, into 2009 is gradually decline. This change is mainly affected by the domestic supply and marketing, the overall market in 2008 adequate supply, while the transaction relatively depressed, the growth of undigested housing. 2009 market turned good, market supply and demand structure from oversupply to demand, the early remaining inventory and later supply digestion accelerated,Reduced sales. But by looking at changes in movements, inventories are still higher in September 2009 than they were 2008 ago.　　And 2008 years ago, Beijing housing inventory is less than 100,000 sets. Since 2009, Beijing and Shenzhen Three urban housing new starting area and construction area fluctuation upward, especially in Beijing, the upward trend is most obvious, such as the August Beijing New start area and construction area of the chain growth of 40% and 30% respectively.　　As the first indicator of supply, the new starting area and the construction area rebound, which indicates that the market supply will be likely to rebound in the coming period, and the new starting area and the amount of construction area have great influence on the supply. 21st Century Real estate chief analyst Munchkins that the supply this year compared with the same period last year, not much change, the market has a so-called lack of feeling, because some developers to cover the plate, artificially caused by the actual supply shortfall.　　From the monitoring data, the real estate investment has been steadily increasing since 2010, the supply is basically guaranteed, there is no room shortage. Developers and buyers at the same time look at the last few months, the first-tier city sales have declined, the impact on inventory? According to statistics, as of September, the total volume of commercial housing in Beijing amounted to 100,000 sets, compared with the same period last year, the volume of residential sales fell by about 26%. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Cities also showed a marked decline. Recently, there is no obvious rebound in the sale of Beijing and Shanghai. On the one hand, 8-September market atmosphere, although no longer the first half of the walk along the way, but three of the decline in the volume of urban transactions, the market inventory digestion rate does not constitute an absolute impact. On the other hand, the three approved listing volume Year-on-year and the chain performance are not optimistic. such as September Beijing approved the listing of the return of nearly 50% of the fall, which shows from the input point of view, there is no possibility of a substantial rebound in the near future.　　However, in the long run, the new start, construction indicators are in stable recovery, the future supply is likely to grow, at the same time policy fine-tuning, high prices and other factors to increase the uncertainty of future transactions, market inventory growth may be. Jahau institutions also believe that, as volume continued to fall in October, the property market gradually entered the off-season. The housing market is also expected to become less clear. Affected by this, the Beijing November planned opening of the number of projects in the apparent decline. According to statistics of the Jahau organization, there are 41 projects to be opened in November, of which, the first opening of the pure new disk project for 13, mainly in Chaoyang District and Daxing, Tongzhou, changping and other suburban areas.　　The project of the late opening of the old project has 26, the distribution scope is wider, these projects have frequently to push the availability of the hot items, such as Paulisi language, Moist manor, K2 Begonia Bay, there are also long time not open old project such as new magnetic device, Dongheng era.　　The upcoming November project in terms of quantity, there has been a significant reduction in the trend, compared with the August more than 80 open projects, November reduction of 50%, especially the pace of the listing of pure new disk is significantly slower. What is blocking the speed of the new supply? Jahau, deputy general manager of Gao Analysis, to market pure newThe reduction of the disk is mainly because it does not have the opening conditions, although the store has been a long time, but in the follow-up policy is not clear, wait-and-see sentiment is more strong, developers for the end of the push is a big concern. November is also into the traditional sales of the off-season one months, developers in the market situation, the judgment is tending to conservative. On the other hand, by this year's stock rapid digestion of the impact of the majority of developers can not sell the housing shortage, enterprises are facing the holding of excess liquidity, relatively sufficient capital of the reality, pure new disk more willing to wait for a better time, better price points on the shot.　　But from the price, the upcoming November project prices continue to rise, this phenomenon shows that the real estate market is further deepened, developers in the current adoption of "insured house volume" strategy to respond to market changes. Munchkins said that in the context of accelerated macroeconomic recovery and increased inflation expectations in 2010, turnover in the property market increased significantly in late October.　　But the housing market policy prospects are unclear, developers cover the plate, second-hand housing owners reluctant and buyers wait and see the phenomenon exists at the same time, is expected to basic stability, small fluctuations in the market situation will continue to the end of December. (China Index Research Institute for drawing)