How to estimate the MO, how to get 3 billion dollars?

How an Internet company is valued is more like a metaphysical problem.

In the quiet period before the IPO, the business model has been finalized, but monetization based on the model is not yet ripe. Judging how much money such a company is worth, I prefer to determine its value by a broad conceptual auction. Although the magnitude difference is huge, but in the domestic, the MO of the mark is also can only be micro-letter.

Two years ago, MO is still a small application of only 10 million users, the same period, micro-trust users have just broken billion. At that time, the general judgment was that in the mobile society, the two of social software that relied on a label like "You Know" would survive. Today, micro-letters have reached even beyond the best of people's imagination. But also unexpectedly, the Mo not only not dead, but in the user volume to achieve the size of the micro-letter two years ago. Now it, at least, qualifies as a "portal" in the mobile Internet field, as it did in the past.

Since it is the entrance, we can judge it by the standards of the entrance.

As an entrance, the Mau value of Mo mo is not low

If we want to see a good or bad entrance, I think the main point to look at these three points: quantity and retention (current and potential user size, monthly live and stay Time), quality (commercial ARPU and profit), stickiness and scale effect (whether it is platform, can be substituted).

In the field of mobile social products with a scale of user-level mobility, the stranger is second only to micro-mail and mobile phone QQ.

As of September 30, 2014, MO mo Total registered user is 180.3 million, MAU (monthly active user) is 60.2 million. It has also become the only one of the top ten mobile instant messaging tools in the country, based on the social networking of strangers. The tenth place in the domestic line month live about 7 million, that is to say, so many strangers to socialize, no matter how good they do, and the MO compared to the existence of this nearly 10 times times the Mau Gap.

This is also the distance between the MO to micro-letter.

Why do people in this field value Mau so much? This is because when it comes to valuing mobile social products, there is a general belief that there is a positive correlation between Mau and valuations.

Then the problem finally came, we are all in the current market value of 3 billion U.S. dollars, this number is reliable?

3 billion dollars means that the MO now probably can to 50 dollars/mau value.

Take the micro-letter, Tencent two quarterly earnings data to calculate, if the micro-letter (does not contain WeChat) in the three quarter Mau maintain 10% growth, this number will eventually reach 380 million. For reasons of value and scale effect, I cannot come up with a specific number to confirm the value of micro-letters. However, Tencent currently 150 billion U.S. dollars to calculate, even take one-third 50 billion U.S. dollars, and then a discount of 30%, micro-letter still has about 100 U.S. dollars/mau valuation.

Ps: Why is the discount 30%? The average discount ratio of computer software in general sense is not very rigorous.

So it looks like, in the period of investors still have good anticipation, the MO 50 dollars/mau, not particularly outrageous, at least this number can be accepted.

But you know, mobile phone QQ and micro-letter, in the 2014q2 game revenue has reached about 500 million U.S. dollars, even in the worst case, micro-credit quarterly game revenue will not be less than 250 million.

Regardless of the scale effect, to the standard micro-letter, if you want to in the current number of users to maintain a 50 U.S. dollar/mau valuation, its reasonable quarterly game revenue can not be less than 21 million U.S. dollars. But right now, it's a long way off.

Then take the legend of the MO in foreign similar competing goods tinder to compare. Its new round of financing at the end of last month could be valued at more than $750 million trillion, up to $1 billion trillion. This is close to the rumor that the MO in the C round of financing valuation.

Since the two software in the product design is different, there is no direct data to two products for direct comparison. Here can only tell you that in the last quarter, the average day, the MO was started 150 million times. Tinder's effective daily action (pairing within the application) exceeds 1 billion. This data at least proves that Tinder is not weak at this stage.

So if you are willing to do a quiet tinder, waiting for the IPO that day, if the valuation of less than 3 billion dollars, you can say that the MO is actually overvalued.

Finally, a few foreign mobile social software in a broad sense of the analogy.

WHATSAPP---44 USD/mau (430 million MAU corresponds to 19 billion USD valuation)

Line---57 USD/mau (175 million MAU corresponds to 10 billion US dollar valuation)

Snapchat---100 USD/mau (100 million MAU corresponds to 10 billion USD valuation)

Kakao---140 USD/mau (50 million MAU corresponds to 7 billion USD valuation)

This comparison can only explain one problem, that is, unless you play a particularly different way, otherwise the capital is willing to pay for the clear business model.

Snapchat is a special case. Kakao's revenue reached $200 million in 2013, and its profit reached $52 million trillion. In terms of their income ratio, 84% of KAKAO2013 's annual income comes from commissions, most of which are mobile games. And line is in 2013 Q4, game income already amounted to 72 million dollars. and WhatsApp? (it is said that a motto on the desk of WhatsApp founder Jean-Koum) reads, "Don't advertise, don't play games, don't do flashy things." "I'm sorry, the market is so superficial, there is milk is ye."

Therefore, for the MO, prove oneself worth this money, good game, is the most important. But how are they doing with this piece?

The game determines the fate?

A dinner, to see a friend in the phone with a stranger, subconsciously asked a sentence. Are you playing the mo-mo game? He told me very simply, played, deleted.

He said there was a reason for his own, not so much patience in doing things. But he also said the operators had problems. Why say so, this should start from the position of the Mo mo.

As a typical weak-relationship social-oriented application, a complete stranger's social interaction will basically go through the following four stages.

Look (be interested)---accosted (a few words)---meet (try it for each purpose)---follow up (strong relationship or end)

In the early days of the MO, I believe this is definitely a typical "Mo mo user Behavior".

On commercialization, we must talk about strong relations. After the commercialization began, the stranger began to try to bring a strong relationship to enhance the residence time and opening rate. Including the introduction of interest groups, offline activities, user-active ratings, stick message board, Game center and so on to enforce the distinction between users. But the problem arises. Mo can do a lot of things, but its every step can not go too deep, the deeper it means that it will face the double attack of micro-letter and vertical app. Chat happy directly to the micro-letter, have a common hobby will be more inclined to choose more professional products. These people may not completely give up the MO, but will certainly affect the MO in the user's identification degree.

So the MO in the user "relationship" positioning is actually a bit procrastinate.

The stranger is not unaware of the problem, from the two quarter of a series of publicity films, they began a conscious campaign, they want to effectively bring the user into a strong relationship at the same time, playing some of their own identification tag, at least to let users know more clearly, why I use the Mo mo.

And the intuitive feeling it brings to me is described in words:

"In a strange city, cure your boredom, or satisfy your curiosity." ”

This sentence has three points.

Unfamiliar city: No sense of belonging, few companions (strong social demand is relatively low)

Cure your boredom: work or work time is not fixed, need to resolve the boring way, but not too much delay (need low-cost solution)

Satisfy your curiosity: There is time, young like to play, but limited to circle small, personal problems or economic reasons, will have a purposeful choice (for the unknown to explore the desire is strong, not the depth of the meaning, but need to meet a certain force as a conversation.) ）

These three groups of people in fact will overlap, will also be divided. But in any case, as long as a little, the Mo want to get hands. These three points are required, you will become a loyal user of Mo mo.

As Yantan said in his knowledge:

"For the first-tier city of the Mo users, because of the various types of North drift, Shanghai Drift has become the majority of the urban population, and their social relationships in the city are mostly like me, just colleagues circle and Industry circle, which for a healthy social network, is very inhuman and can not be satisfied. But because of the obscurity of the first-line city users, and relatively more impetuous, so the platform of the city's ecological environment also presents some negative effects, the most typical is about cannon and Hyun Fu, which is the most easily criticized the place. We do not have a particularly good solution to this problem for the time being, and there may be some social reality that we must face if we cannot pretend to be foreign guests. ”

"For the second line, three-tier urban users, the platform is relatively healthier environment." Because these places are a quasi-acquaintance social environment, there is not only no green tea and fake rich second-generation, even professional workers can not borrow the platform showmanship. As a result, they create new social relationships on the platform and have a higher percentage of relationships through group development lines. ”

In a big circle, we have to figure out what the current MO needs. Then go back to the question of the above dinner, why some users do not like the Mo mo game? The reason is very simple, because its game products do not have a few accurate to the standard MO delineated user groups.

At present, the game Center has a total of nine products, of which three products users over 2 million. Remove the first advantage of the Mo Mo Hegemony, the other two products, bombs bucket landlords, MO Mo Dance Troupe have common characteristics: mild games, a short time, the main use of debris time, with the play.

Your users are just bored, just have no company, just want to talk about, just want to find someone to blow. TA does not need so troublesome things.

The poor performance of several products also have a similar face: heavy games, or spend time or money, less game interaction and linkage play. And these slot points in fact can be summed up in a word.

"Why did I come to Mo?" Where can I play with my hands? ”

Some people may say, anyway, is to make money, big deal agent more games, do rotten one to change a good, Tencent is not so do!

But you know, Tencent launched the micro-credit game is only six quarters, than the stranger in a few months earlier, but the micro-letter in 2014Q3 began to reduce the expectations of micro-credit revenue and try to increase the level of activity. So for the MO, no more fine tillage game, it is really late.

In the prospectus, Mo's income is divided into three: member value-added fees, Game center, other (facial expression, to shop pass, etc.). Mo's membership fee is currently priced at 12 yuan per month, three months 30 yuan, six months 60 yuan, 108 yuan a year. Since the opening of its membership in 2013, its membership fee for each quarter to maintain more than 50% growth, the first half of 2014 membership fee income of 8.74 million U.S. dollars.

But this part of the income is more dependent on the natural growth of the user dividend. In the 2014q3 quarter, the number of 2.3 million members of the street accounted for 3.8% of the total Mau.

In this field, member value-added services to play the best of the QQ must be. QQ in the 2 quarter of the full platform of Mau about 830 million, even if Tencent full platform 88 million value-added service users all from QQ and QQ space, its membership number accounted for only 10%. Also assume that 10% as a reasonable proportion, in the existing charging play, its ceiling can also be expected. It is not realistic to want to catch up with Tencent for nearly a decade of commercial power for a short time. As for the expression and to shop pass and other products, for the moment to see really not enough fighting capacity.

At the same time, in the United States, the MO is not completely without competitors. Tinder announced funding at the end of last month, with annual revenues expected to reach 180 million per year after commercialization. Although the two cover the user area is different, but the similarity of business logic, once Tinder prepare IPO, this will undoubtedly cause the mode of reference pressure.

The most rapid and effective way to raise valuations is to play on mobile games.

In the second half of 2013, Mo Mo Mobile game income of 92,000 U.S. dollars, 2014 first half, mobile gaming revenue reached 4.438 million U.S. dollars. And in the above, we have already mentioned that if the MO want to maintain the existing valuation, but also stable cover Tinder, quarterly game revenue at least need to reach 21 million U.S. dollars, that is, MO's hand tour revenue still need to grow 10 times times. Where do 10 times times come from? Still have to ask the MO oneself.

So, the value of the street can afford to the 3 billion dollars and even a higher level?

It all depends on the game.