Huatai Union Securities Lu Lei: inflation will remain low

Huatai Joint Securities 2010 Investment Strategy Seminar was held in Shenzhen on December 2, Sina Finance will live broadcast this meeting.　　Lu Lei, chief economist of Huatai Securities, believes that the inflationary pressure rate will remain low in 2010 and that macro policies will be adjusted in the continuation. 2010 China's economic trend is inverted-V Lu Lei that the decline in global trade and protectionism means that China's export "cake" is shrinking, the export growth is expected to be about 10% in 2010;　　Thus, investment growth will fall from 33% in 2009 to around 20% in 2010. Since the policy effect will continue into the first quarter of 2010, and exports are expected to rise in the same quarter, the quarter will become the next year's growth, the year-on-year GDP growth rate will gradually decline, the annual growth of 8.5% to 9%.　　Thus, the economic trend in the second half of 2009 to 2010 was inverted "V" type.　　Inflationary pressures are modest, despite the "inflationary expectations" that have been created by broad currency growth, but inflation, which is measured by CPI, will remain low, with little inflationary pressure and a 2010 inflation rate of 2.3%. The growth of light industry is still unbalanced, continue to maintain financial investment will make the upper middle reaches the industry serious overcapacity, also will raise the credit risk of the banking sector; the issue of investment in the country will continue, the crowding out effect of financial investment is obvious, especially the medium and long term loans are growing too fast 2009 years ago, which leads to the "orientation" The easing policy cannot withdraw, the systemic credit risk emerges, forces the policy to face the exit pressure.　　The 2009 credit productivity was at a historic low, even if optimistic estimates were only about 3.4 times times. The growth of the volume of credit is unsustainable future credit growth faces pressure from capital and interest payments and asset price pressures. Lu Lei that, such as continuing to stimulate credit growth, facing the banking system as a supplier of capital pressure and the real economic sector as a demand for interest spending pressure; from the angle of debt ratio, the local government must raise the price of assets such as land to form its own funds and pry the credit growth.　　According to this forecast, 2010 credit growth 18%, M2 increase by 19%. Lu Lei pointed out that the "hot money" to find the flow of the probability of gradual increase.　　The medium-term liquidity inflection point will appear in the first quarter of 2010, when liquidity is most relaxed at the first of 2010, with extreme liquidity easing to end in the second quarter of 2010. Macro-policy will be adjusted in the continuation of Lu Lei expected, the overall thinking of macro-control from "guarantee growth, security stability" to "guarantee growth, adjustment structure"; fiscal policy to neutral, and before the withdrawal of monetary policy; structural governance of monetary policy takes precedence over total tightening In the face of trade protectionism to strengthen the renminbi and timely use of trade policies to deal with disputes. (June Ping from Shenzhen)