Japan's largest social platform Line landing in China

Text / Wang Ruchen

On Friday, Line, a Japanese-controlled social platform controlled by Korean-owned assets, said that it plans to set up a team in China to operate on the ground. I say to belly black now, start. However, what needs to be clarified is that without injustice and innocence, belittling is not black, but gives a logical analysis.

I will directly tell my own judgment on this news: Line China will not be beautiful, it may only be the village dance sword, intended to Pei Gong.

First of all, let me first explain why its Chinese life will not be beautiful.

1, the circle of social media properties, language, culture is exclusive

This is in my opinion the biggest obstacle. This is the most stubborn feature of the social platform. There seems to be no obstacle in its technical form, born of globalization. But it corresponds to a circle, circle this thing is a collective unconscious, conventional choice, the reason for their formation is a unified language and culture. The circle obeys the majority principle of relationships. The more friends you add, the stronger the cohesion between you and eventually the exclusiveness of the social platform itself.

Some local users sign up for Facebook. But do they really use the WeChat and Weibo frequency? I do not believe.

Line China is not against technology, products, it is facing a strong relationship, user stickiness. WeChat for such a long time, and can not break it, Line Needless to say. Do not say what it is stronger than words, this is not a one-dimensional problem.

You might say Line Global operates successfully, with several countries ranking first. However, if you analyze it carefully, it is the capital of South Korea that made its fortune in Japan. This would have hitherto been delayed. Then the other countries were able to make a fortune because it entered earlier and the competition was less fierce.

In fact, I can understand it in turn: do not expect Ma Weiteng's WeChat to beat Line in Japan and defeat WhatAPP in the United States.

2, Line operating mode acclimatized in China

Line has its pride. I think it is the depth and richness of platform operation. Its users last year did not Whatsapp, WeChat and more, only 175 million monthly active users, and WeChat monthly active users of nearly 400 million. But Line revenue is more than the sum of two rivals, more than 500 million U.S. dollars. Whatsapp revenue only 20 million US dollars, WeChat it, estimated at less than 200 million US dollars.

Whatsapp is a simple style, do not insert ads, charge a low service fee each year. About 60% of Line's revenue comes from mobile gaming props and 20% from digital maps. At present, it is also strengthening its e-commerce services, but the impact is not too great.

It should be said, Line this mode of operation is very healthy, be regarded as a trend. But do not forget the Chinese market does not eat this set. I do not quite believe that local users will pay much for such services as Line, and WeChat basically treats it as free.

Moreover, it needs to be added that in China, if you only operate in such a deep-rooted way and do not take care of the operators' relationship, the more you run a market-oriented enterprise, you will suffer the most in China. At the beginning of the WeChat's hottest time, operators are not reconciled, now Line over, do you think they will be happy to back it OTT mode it? Do not believe continue to see Line year, see how it hooked.

3, Line China has no real basis for operations, the foundation is too light

Line appeared in China, the earliest through the 360 ​​application distribution channels, because there is no technology and marketing support, the effect is not good. Of course, Line less entertainment marketing. "You From the Stars" hit a hit in China. As a sponsor of Line, China has significantly improved its sound volume. It has also leaned heavily on advertising in the Shanghai Metro, occupying some of its bodywork. It should be said, boys and girls, white-collar workers have some awareness of it, at least remember the name.

However, short-term sound volume can not be converted into market share, people are slowly forgetting it. Suddenly, in April, Pea Pod became the core operator and technical supporter of Line in China. Pea pods, of course, have its technical service capabilities, but compared to 360, its own brand influence is not as good as others.

4, the soil is not the same, Maiwei threshold threshold

Based on this accumulation, Line landed in China operations, there will be no real performance. Want to shake the WeChat is fantasy. WeChat birth is based on QQ, is now a monopoly. Not to mention Line, the local Ali, "from" after the launch, had wanted to start in the short term, but a burst of rapid promotion, event marketing, the market reacted coldly, now has to be pragmatic, first from the internal and business, in the long term.

Line executives still know each other. CEO Morikawa Liang said that competition in the Chinese mainland market is very fierce and hard to explore. Some progress has been made in mainland China, but compared to WeChat, it is like a small whale and a big whale.

So, in that case, why Line suddenly increase the volume, to recruit local teams in China, landing operations? This is the second part I will say. I think, Line move is Xiangzhuang sword, intended to Pei Gong. The main purpose of the following three layers:

1, Zama step, to complete this year's user goals, the implementation of the globalization layout, especially in time for South Korea KAOKAO, whatapp get rid of play one.

You know, KAOKAO has been acquired by South Korean listed company Daum, equal to the backdoor listing. With the new gold lord, it is bound to strengthen the layout of South Korea and accelerate the pace of internationalization. This poses a direct threat to Line. When you look at KAOKAO's announcement of a merger that day, Line's parent company's stock price dropped 4%.

Line layout is more balanced. But mainland China is certainly its heart disease. It set itself this year, the user development goal is to reach between 500 million - 600 million, at present it is 450 million announced. Even if it is convinced of the authenticity of its data, a gap of 50 million to 150 million will cause great pressure in loss if it is distracted and in a small country. Leveraging on China is definitely the cleanest thing to do.

If the use of advertising or even vomit blood promotion, pulling some users in China it is possible. But to say that the number of 50 million, do not count on it. Line is making a show.

2, for the pending IPO build momentum, engage in a little concept of the Chinese market, easy to finance.

A few days ago, Line came out does not rule out the IPO in Japan, South Korea or the United States. A list of three places in a row, in my opinion, either have been identified for listing, but to make a big deal; or simply no spectrum, the release of information in order to obtain chips, the introduction of new strategic capital.

Note that Line is still in a losing position now and has been in contact with the capitalists since before having contacted SoftBank Japan and China Ali.

3, it is an extension of the second layer, it may force China Ali strategy to invest it, or even acquisition.

The second half of last year to the first quarter of this year, there has been Softbank, Ali may acquire Line rumors. Although both sides have not confirmed any substantive information, but several times in a row, it seems not groundless.

Not long ago, when KAOKAO merged with a Korean listed company and the curve was listed, I forewided that it would react in a relatively radical manner and made a prediction in an article that "Ali will buy Line?", And it may have other capital action.

Today, the release of IPO news may be just a smoke bomblet, and I think what it needs most now is a giant Internet giant who can make up for it.

What is its short board? I think it is a resource that allows it to scale business platforms on a large scale. For months, Line has been extending its reach into the mobile e-commerce space and has attracted international giants such as Estee Lauder. However, due to the lack of ecological support, especially the e-commerce platforms, payment tools and the resources of more international telecom operators, the Line layout is actually a mere formality that can not be removed from the current model in the short term.

You can certainly think of Softbank and Ali immediately. Softbank has a strong international telecom operators resources, especially in Japan and North America, a huge context, while Ali is the world's largest e-commerce platform, and a strong Alipay. This can directly make up the Line's short board.

What's more, the other key point is that Ali's presence in China will lay the foundation for Line to open up the Chinese market. The current IPO can also help Line expand North America and the entire global market.

Of course, you can think of Tencent. But an embarrassing fact is that Tencent is an indirect shareholder of Line rival KAOKAO, which holds a seat on the latter's board of directors. I can not see it will accept WeChat support, unless there is an accident.

I really feel line anxiety. In my article, "Ali is going to acquire Line?", Ally now needs to supplement social concepts, but in the short term, this concept does not help much in the business. Because of the regional characteristics of the social platform, it can not be landed in China. It is precisely because of this, I asserted that the value of Ali acquisition Line has not as good as last year's hype.

Line into China, in my opinion, in addition to the first two reasons above, is to create such an ineffable effect: through the formal layout of China to stimulate Ali. You know, Line can not beat Tencent at all, nor does it really open the market. However, one thing, it touches can inhibit the exchanges, because they are both brothers and sisters in China.

That way, Line has become an obstacle to Ali's independent development of social platforms, and may help to suppress WeChat.

Ali will be willing to see a new force shaking in front of it? But Line through the pea pods, 360 such business promotion, it will stimulate Ali's acquisition of the desire?

I think, Line's purpose is very subtle. Of course, it may not be willing to be acquired because, as of now, a Facebook rating Whatapp to judge its position, and even given more than 200 billion valuation, which may make it more independent operation, not to mention Line Behind South Korea's largest portal. However, subject to the above conditions, it is in urgent need of resources, so I think it should urgently want Ali strategic investment, rather than acquisitions.

In fact, there are quite a few cases in which South Korean enterprises deliberately persecuted Chinese enterprises for acquiring acquisitions because of their large complementary space with China. That year, Chen Tianqiao forced to shot before, South Korea Audition also forced it to buy Ninetowns, though not as.

My opinion is that this is actually a kind of ecological construction strategy. After all, there is a contradiction between the liberalization of the Internet world and the regionalization of social life. Line situation, and the contacts, Whatapp even WeChat situation is not fundamentally different. When you become a leader in the regional market, the international layout has been trapped in ecological defects, lack of resources. I think the next international layout of WeChat may also encounter similar problems.