Just take a look at how many years your consumer is targeting

"Guide" no matter what industry you are engaged in, just take a look at, your consumer population positioning in a few years? You know you have a few years to go. For the electric business, 85 is really accompanied by the growth of the internet generation, where their needs, the electricity business opportunities are there. For traditional enterprises, E-commerce should be the electronic business, the first consideration is not to become e-commerce, but the original business platform which links can use the Internet e-commerce means to solve.

If the "body" does not understand history well, it will not be able to clearly perceive the future.

A picture determines what you should do?

In the first picture, Blue represents the United States and red represents China. This picture is also my history. I joined Alibaba in 2006 when Chinese Internet users were about to overtake American internet users.

These two graphs show that China has spent only seven or eight years, PC Internet users more than the United States, China in less than two years, mobile smartphones have more than the United States. This is China's Internet population structure, which determines what the Internet industry can do, what industry is outdated. The demographic structure decides everything, starting from these two graphs.

Why did you choose to follow Ma?

Internet companies are divided into four categories: the first category, the new media. Most of the companies that do the media are in Beijing.

Second, new entertainment. Including gaming companies and video companies, mainly in Shanghai.

Third, new communications. Guangdong Telecom Management is relatively loose, Tencent QQ, NetEase mailbox to micro-letter is the main communication function.

Four, good business. The internet to Zhejiang people, that is business, to Alibaba as a representative.

Therefore, China's four major internet schools are mainly divided into a political-like play, communication, can do business in these four regions. Any new internet model company can be classified as one.

In the field of electronic commerce, there are many topics to be said. Retail sales in China have risen 1.8 times times in the past five years, while online retailing has risen 19 times-fold in the past 5 years. I did 7 years in the retail trade before I spoke to Jack Ma in 2005. Why join Alibaba? Because of a bet.

Taobao and a year of home sales are 8 billion. Ma Yun asked me: "You estimate the performance of the hundred homes will have to vote how much money, plus how many people, how much time?" "I calculate, probably also to open 40 stores, each store an average of 20 million dollars of investment, each shop needs at least 200 people, drive fast also need three years." Ma Yun said, I just add five servers, a person is not, six months can double. It turned out three months later. At that time I felt that traditional retailing might soon be a dinosaur, so I decided to join Ali. Recently, some friends of the retail Circle said that the national statistics said that there are more than 10% retail growth, there must be water. Actually, I don't think there's too much water, where is the growth of retailing? The first ran to the four or five-line city, and the second ran to the Internet. If you do not have online, there are no four or five-line cities, this growth does not have anything to do with you. Third, four or five lines of urban traditional retail growth, 123 of the urban growth of most of the internet was taken away. The next picture will clearly understand why it was taken away?

Four stages of e-commerce--the reverse attack of "85"

E-commerce has gone through four stages in its development.

The first stage is for non-mainstream people to buy non-mainstream products.

Non-mainstream mainly refers to young people who have graduated from high school to just two or three years of work. The first stage of the internet is generally just graduated children, Amoy a little second-hand, buy a little bargain, their products are also non-mainstream products, this stage has lasted until 2006, 2007 years.

Why? Because China had little internet before 2000. You see, today's famous internet companies, their birthdays are the same, all rose in 1999, in other words, before 2000, China has no internet.

The population of the Internet in China is not the most commonly understood. Since 80 was born in 2000 is already 21 years old, he contacted the internet most of the work from the beginning, so he is working in the Internet generation. The people born after 1985 are the real Chinese internet generation. At that time I was in Alibaba, see Tencent rely on the game so make money, nasty. Ma Yun said, you are no use, our future users, are still small, still playing games, we dug a hole in front of them, they will fall sooner or later. They have fallen since the four quarter of last year. Also from the four quarter of last year, Ali's entire profit exceeded Tencent. The result is not entirely due to Ma Yun. We often joke that you don't have to do anything, and this ending will happen. China without Ma Yun, E-commerce will be successful, but may be more years of exploration. The real decision is the age structure on the map, you can't do it early, and the chances are gone. In 2001, Shanghai has a great E-commerce company called 8848, than the current Amazon are cattle, because they were O2O. But it all started too early, behind the crowd has not grown up. The first to go is generally martyrs.

Including now a lot of electric Shangdou began to do mobile internet, also because do not understand this picture, action is a little too early. This picture is objective existence, so it must be homeopathy. The understanding of the Chinese Internet population structure determines the layout and the start of what you do.

The second stage is that the mainstream people occasionally surf the internet to buy Non-mainstream products.

What are mainstream products and non-mainstream products? You left it can still live products are non-mainstream products, the book does not look at the most no knowledge, but really will not starve to death, clothes do not wear problems, things do not eat problems, so the book is Non-mainstream products, and clothing, food is the mainstream products.

The third stage is to buy mainstream products for non-mainstream people.

At this stage, after 85, they started to buy mainstream products. This stage to all engaged in the internet and E-commerce people bring a great misunderstanding, that is, online only sell cheap things and discounts. This is not the Internet's fault, nor is it the problem of E-commerce, because this time 85 can only afford to take advantage of cheap things. 25, 26-year-old people, not only on the internet to buy cheap things, but to where will buy cheap things.

The fourth stage is the mainstream people buy mainstream products.

This time the mainstream crowd is already 30 standing 85 after. The internet for the 70 's change in fact is still very small, but with a little bit of micro-letter, using Dot Weibo, but the change after 85 is huge, and this trend is irreversible.

I have a judgment in 2008 years, that is, 2015 years is China's e-commerce from quantitative to qualitative change node. Why? Because after 30, 85 people are born into the 30 years old, they become the mainstream of this society.

So no matter what industry you're in, you just have to take a look at how old are your consumer groups? You know you have a few years to go. For example, last year I invested in China's largest wedding photography Mrs. Kim. Why? Because after 85 is now the peak of marriage, their choice of wedding dress is not like we used to marry, go to a lot of bridal shop than parity on the set. They are particularly demanding on the quality of wedding dresses. Mother and child market is not so fast, but also fast, 85 of the age of childbearing is coming, and so that time, they will be more viscous online. Someone asked me what I was looking at recently. I'm just looking at something that's about to be bought after 85. After 85 something is about to buy, this vertical area of E-commerce will become the mainstream.

Beware of the "four Don't look" of traditional enterprises

The consumer has four stages, the merchant also has four stages. The four stages of the merchant are in line with the four stages of the consumer.

The first stage is invisible.

When consumers are not mainstream people buy non-mainstream products, businessmen do not see e-commerce. It is the first stage to think that those little childish gadgets are not the mainstream products of big businesses, and that big businesses don't sell them.

The second stage is to despise.

Many do clothing big guy, said the clothing industry water is very deep, every customer's aged is sells the book, how he may sell the clothes. including Gome, Su Ning, just out of the Liu Comrade also look down, so this stage is to see, but despise.

The third stage is to read.

This stage is about 2009 to 2010. Taobao's "Double 11" every year is to give everyone a needle sobering. At that time, a lot of people came to me, said how I do clothing for more than 10 years to do a billion of of the turnover, now online, a business, is 20 billion of the turnover. So at this time people just can't understand.

The fourth one is not visible.

Just can't see how to go in the future. If your consumers have migrated to the Internet, you have not migrated to the past, and eventually your business, your brand, your product will be eliminated.

Two key steps in the transition

Four modes of electronic commerce in China

The first step, E-commerce consumer has four categories, first of all know their own business is which category.

The first kind of platform class, in short, online commercial real estate. Why Ma Yun with Wang Gambling, because Wang is offline commercial real estate, Ma Yun is online commercial real estate, two real estate big guy Bet. How do real estate bosses play? It is generally a mall, regardless of pricing, inventory, nothing. Such companies are more like internet companies. People look at the cat made so much money, a lot of big guys come to me, said Ma give you how much money I give you multiplied by three, Ma Yun with how much renminbi in Taobao, we give you the same dollar you do it again? I said I couldn't do it, not that I was incompetent, but that the time had passed. What is the secret to success in commercial real estate? Not the mall inside the design, the biggest success secret is that you buy the land to be cheap enough. Now the internet on the PC end of the enclosure era has ended, when the development of an active user Taobao only need 2 to 3 yuan, the equivalent of an acre of commercial 200,000 yuan. Now the development of an active user costs 100 yuan, even with a good operating team, with 70 pieces can not be done. Because the "ground" is too expensive, so the mall on the PC side of the era has passed, now mobile end to develop active users or relatively cheap, but such a cheap "premium" will not exceed 1.5. 1.5 After the mobile Internet solicitation costs, drainage costs will be close to the PC.

The second category is online retailers, such as one shop, Beijing east. Many online retailers are really losing money to make a yell, where is the way out? It is also very simple, similar to the Carrefour in front of my home, this is the world's best turnover Carrefour. What are their patterns? Retail does not earn money, the retail building to the second floor, the third floor, while the first floor to rent out, using my rent collection is also very lucrative. So the next step for online retailers is to go there and use the passenger flow to do mall.

The third category is to do the online brand. For example, free brand visitors. E-commerce if want to do platform, must be big quickly, but want to do brand, should be fast. Brand is not about how big you are, but whether you are fast enough. I have rarely been in the business of working as a trader, because there are few standards for true value creation that are blindly scaled, without knowing the benefits of scale.

The fourth category is O2O, the line must get through online.

The second step is to ascertain the characteristics of your industry.

In the traditional industry, we should pay attention to what kind of traditional industries you belong to. Because some traditional industries his original model is very vulnerable to the impact of the Internet.

There are four different levels of impact.

The first category, for some products easy to be the data of the industry invited to the immortal also have no way. For example, I used to rent DVDs when I was living abroad, and now I don't even have a pirated DVD.

The second category, the enterprise's products are extremely standardized, will also disappear, 3C this thing is very easy to standardize. I have a colleague in my 85 who says he has never been to a supermarket in his life, only to a convenience store. This is very scary, standardized products do not need to go to the store to spend.

The third category, the product is not standardized, but also can have a long tail effect. This kind of product will benefit from the Internet, this time the offline experience becomes very important, many big-name fashion stores, flagship stores, experience shops are still open, but do not expect to generate sales from the store.

The fourth category, if your industry is product plus service, then you can benefit from the Internet is even greater. Offline shop not only will not perish, but also can vigorously develop. Because he sells the service is cannot replace on the net, for example wedding photography, for instance the dining, the barber, the computer impossibly high technology to that degree.

The internet is used to solve problems.

Ma Yun proposed e-commerce, that is because he had no business, he is barefoot, basically smashed the spot. For those with business experience, I suggest that the issue of business electronics, rather than e-commerce, should be considered. You have nothing, you go to smash the place you are E-commerce, you have a physical store offline, there is the original business that called business Electronic. How to understand? Ask the Internet to find out what your original bottleneck is and solve your problems. The Internet should be a solution to your problems, not to bring new problems to your existing businesses. If it is a traditional enterprise, take the lead should consider not to become e-commerce, but consider, my original business platform which links can use the Internet e-commerce means to solve. E-commerce belongs to Ma Yun, business electronic is belong to everyone.