Kai-fu Lee: Mobile save five trends Consumer-to-consumer plagiarism mode is dead

Sina Science and technology news January 11 Noon, Innovation Workshop Chairman and CEO of Kai-Fu Lee today at the O2o Park Innovation Conference, said the mobile internet there are five development trends, he believes that the field this year or a breakthrough. Talk about entrepreneurship Kai-Fu Lee advised entrepreneurs to give up, he also pointed out that the pure Consumer-to-consumer plagiarism mode has died. The following is Kai-fu Lee and "business value" editor Zhang Peng Dialogue record: Mobile Internet five trends Zhang Peng: Kai Fu, today so early to let you give us the opening, in fact, I believe that many people have been looking forward to the exchange with you, I would like to say a more pragmatic question, Recently, we all think that entrepreneurial activities in China is not as hot as before, the investment environment seems to be so, do you have this feeling? Do you think this is a good time to start a business? Kai-Fu Lee: I think the two or three-year change is very big, three years ago, a lot of people didn't care about the move to change the world, and we made this bet with other companies, and two years ago more people saw this potential, and in the past year we saw some fruits and blossoms, but the past 12 months may have seen some challenges, such as the involvement of Giants, For example, the overseas market cooling and so on, but also scared back some entrepreneurs, have let some investment to take a step back slightly, for the 2013 investment and entrepreneurial environment, I still optimistic attitude, first we began to see overseas listed companies, although some encountered problems, but also some have a huge growth, to give investors confidence, Prices have started to rise recently. Second, many domestic start-up companies to achieve tens of millions of dollars in monthly income, sea quantification of products will certainly rise, we also see many challenges to entrepreneurship, the giant's intervention, more than before the success will be more difficult, but I believe that next year we will be sitting here than this year has a greater progress, there are more entrepreneurs, More investors are sitting here with more smiles. Zhang Peng: the opportunity always exists, the key is the entrepreneur with what determination to participate in such a big historical process. With determination and courage, the direction is also very important, the teacher has been in the past three years to stand in the preface of product innovation, has been watching a variety of projects, how do you feel? From the past few years, what are the things that see trends? What new opportunities are available? Kai-fu Lee: In fact, I think our best teacher or history, the development of mobile Internet, is a large degree of replication in the past the growth of the Internet, but it is faster, may be fast 3-5 times, there are mobile characteristics, but it step by step the rise, basically through the internet forecast. Today in the 2000-2002 years of the internet age, from today, see is 5 a relatively big trend, first of all know, last year reached 200 million mobile internet smart devices, this year can be the past 500 million goals, as the past PC growth, will bring huge opportunities, this is very huge. The second challenge is the growing competition, with three internet giants and many other big internet companies starting to put more resources into the mobile web, while seeing the opportunity to make money, homogeneousMore and more fierce competition, a little bit of the feeling of the group, not so easy, the success of others to change the case is not enough. The third trend is the integration of channels, the big difference between mobile and internet, although the channel is also growing, but also relatively single, more dependent on the application store, and application stores and other channels of traffic growth, although also fast, but not as fast as users and products grow, means a few things: for entrepreneurs to get traffic , the cost of purchasing channels will increase, to the industry is also a challenge, believe that the future will have better channels and flow integration, there will be a few brand channels, there is a very important thing, traffic will be more refined, not a one-time download, but will do fine detail of the flow and channel operations, this is our forecast. Finally, the improvement of monetization, in fact, in the game, basically jump from the internet to mobile Internet, the future and the payment of the challenges to be completed, but the entire virtual currency model has been basically a mature model, we also saw a number of tens applications exist, But let us be more gratified is not the game monetization road seems to go very fast, some international brands have been willing to put ads in the mobile. Zhang Peng: What do you think about mobile advertising? Kai-Fu Lee: We would have held a more pessimistic attitude, such as Google, Baidu education market to accept search ads, spent five years, and not perfect, there is no doubt that the public to accept mobile advertising also need time, but may not need to be so long as we worry about things. In addition, Tencent Micro-letter O2O exploration, two-dimensional code, but also let us feel that the degree of acceptance by the merchant may also exceed our forecasts, we are also holding a very long-term process, let them know that this is to obtain user channels, Tencent letter and two-dimensional code of the attempt will speed up. The last trend is that data start-ups can also be a pretty good opportunity, and we're always worried about where our innovative ideas come from, copy from abroad, or add different people's ideas, or do localization process, or pat the head, or have jobs such people come out, yy is a typical example, just start doing relatively small operations, From the user needs, is basically the process of elite entrepreneurship, we think that in the big data age as entrepreneurs can get the user's needs and entrepreneurial direction, from the data can be mined in the information, whether in large companies, or even through open community mining, I believe that there are many entrepreneurial direction, this is what we see five trends. O2O this year will have a breakthrough Zhang Peng: Everyone in the entrepreneurial process will feel that there is a problem, enterprises need to be able to really create cash flow, advertising mode is in fact still gradually mature process, has not been detonated the complete point, from the game, in this time what kind of things? It's a social thing, what have you been looking at lately? Kai-fu Lee: Advertising is still very long-term, if today to do a mobile product, the future is to rely on advertising to make money, in fact, advertising does not need to make money, rely on advertising to make money needs of the user is very large, if there is such a large number of users, and don't worry about not getting the investment back. I think we can look at a few areas and now it looks like there are fewer opportunities in the social arena, there are two basic social products: one is two-way connection, a one-way connection, like Weibo, these two already have two mountains, the platform is more difficult, and many small trees can rely on them to grow up, but want to do the platform will be very difficult, Small companies can rely on these big social platforms to quickly get users to grow, our investment in the PA may be such a typical example, but whether the pop can become a huge platform or not see clearly, I think people should be a quick way to get the market and users, There may be some narrow areas of focus that can socialize. We think O2O has always had some challenges, but there may be some breakthroughs this year, O2O different, and if you can pick out special value-added opportunities, such as travel, or find some mobile areas, you have a traditional field, because the move may subvert the way of doing things in the past, whether it's by taxi, or ordering, or even selling, Can be applied to a variety of traditional areas, which are less concerned about the involvement of giants, and if there are areas of expertise or user sources, these areas are worth exploring. Next year there may be large coverage, special brands, but it is difficult to predict which. Enterprise-class application is very important, in the U.S. public companies in the enterprise-level application than consumer-level application more than several times, demand is there, pay habits and will also exist, today is it possible because of mobile, cloud computing, large data to bring some opportunities? Break the pattern of past companies unwilling to pay and not like to pay, but if we look at 5 or 7 years, I'm pretty sure there will be a lot of enterprise-level applications in China in 5 to 7 years. Entrepreneurs should be brave enough to give up Zhang Peng: In the past three years, a lot of projects, many product team including product managers will encounter this problem, we have designed a product, designed a model, the operation of the process you find it is not the same as imagined, not easy, this time may need to make adjustments, this time how to do? There are many decisions, because sometimes it is a pity that I spend so much energy to do this thing, but the direction is not right, you have any suggestions to everyone? Kai-Fu Lee: This is a very good question, product managers and entrepreneurs are inevitable optimists, confident people, otherwise you will not come to business, although we all know that 100 entrepreneurs have only one success, but all entrepreneurs think they are 80% opportunities, do not think they are 1% of the opportunity, this is bound to face a gap, After a while to find some things not as good as their own imagination, on the one hand it may be too optimistic, too confident, on the other hand from the lack of mature industry thinking, or the industry changes too fast, may also come from the psychological challenges, smart people have a lot of ideas, have the idea to give up, These attitudes also pose many challenges. In the investment companies, the first feeling that there may be challenges in the company, the results of the challenge has occurred, the original thought that this area may be a big shot, allImagined problems have occurred, there are many unimaginable problems have occurred, for an entrepreneur, must have a peaceful mentality, to adjust in good faith. Second, entrepreneurs need a dispassionate assessment do not reach the target, the strict ask yourself why did not meet the target, to help entrepreneurs see the project may be our past year to do the most things, this is a thankless task, sometimes must let the entrepreneur detours, entrepreneurs really need to have the courage to give up their ability, To have a very high demand for their own executive power to have very strict requirements. Zhang Peng: Sometimes speed is very important, including the cost of making mistakes is also very important, try to make their own mistakes cost low, do not make expensive mistakes. Kai-fu Lee: Even if very expensive, sometimes have to bite the bullet, a start-up has a total ideal and dream into a direction, and later found that this direction may not be exactly the same as expected, but at the same time found another direction. Zhang Peng: sometimes adhere to and maintain is not a concept, when you find that the direction of the wrong time to adhere to make adjustments, like yy is very typical, the past few years Angel investment is very important, I believe that many teams are more and more opportunities to get a sum of money in the first time, but when the business Sometimes the choice of investors is actually a very fastidious thing, Kai Fu Teacher Innovation Factory is also changing, is a very standard venture capital institutions, entrepreneurs in the business development under the premise of jumping out of angel investment to choose their own investors? Kai-fu Lee: There may be two aspects: on the one hand is relatively hard aspect, on the one hand is relatively soft aspect. An entrepreneur, first of all, should be very clear about what they want, lack of what, too many entrepreneurs think I only need money, the other is added value, but often found that the entrepreneur may have to take the money after the wrong way when no one to help him correct, my first suggestion is that clear know what you want, Then understand that money is not the only, and absolutely not the most important. In addition, hard and soft value, hard value, see what you're going to do, do things different need different help, if you think your management experience is insufficient, you may need a strong network of managers, to know what they need, or to find the next round of investment or listing, to clearly know what they want, and then find a hard ability of VC. The softer aspect, like the entrepreneur, it is difficult for entrepreneurs to balance when both can be persistent and can give up, these two are a bit paradoxical, but as investors, we think that the soft aspect of the best investors are those who can add value and can delegate, often know a lot of VC will be very strong to tell you how to do, At the same time, strong entrepreneurs must have their own short board, is needed to help, the best investors should be able to add value but also can delegate, respect each other, this is more important two points. Cross-screen opportunities also have traps Zhang Peng: In this regard, the core or entrepreneur to know what they want, do not look at their own valuations, but also to think calmly. Today our theme is also on the development of cross-screen application, I feel the screen has become more and more in the past year, and more and more, from mobile phones to tablets, including Andrew, Android Tablet is also rising, coupled with smart TV, we are more and more optimistic about, including music and business is a creative workshop investment project, how do you view the new opportunities in the cross-screen field? Share your thoughts on this. Kai-fu Lee: in the mobile and flat the idea may be similar, think the mobile phone and the flat-panel operating system platform is relatively similar. Today, perhaps the most notable is the mobile climax has risen, next will be the TV wave? We have many reasons to be optimistic, and there are many reasons to be pessimistic, I think there are a lot of opportunities, optimistic reason is very simple, PC screen too much, the internet up, smart phones, the platform is up, now the big screen TV, smart or Super TV field of opportunity must be huge, and can be networked, It's exactly the same as the phone and PC, and on the TV screen, in addition to the very standard video experience, can let you see any film, film and television dramas and so on, in a very high definition of the environment has an ultra-clear video field, in addition, many areas are suitable for family environment multiplayer games, singing, education, health, this is really a good development direction. But it also faces a lot of traps, and if the PC company does, it may be thinking too much about tools, if the TV company to do, may want to use the remote control to hit everything, if it is the Internet mobile companies do, may do like mobile enterprises, television and mobile phone has a huge difference, is many people's business, is the family business, is the light interactive enterprise , not a heavy interaction. Another major challenge is that young people are not watching TV now, and it is not easy to turn them back on the TV screen, in addition to the cost of manufacturing, there is also a huge challenge to the content business, and finally policy issues, especially in China. But in our view this area is still very optimistic, because I feel that there is a huge opportunity, doing all the things we do on the PC and on the phone on the big screen, and joining the Internet, miracles happen, but only if they have a good user experience and good content, and the regulatory laws and regulations can be accepted. Besides, I have a personal view like Apple's iphone rewriting the mobile phone field, I believe Apple will rewrite the TV field, and on the one hand there will be a stunning and perfect experience, so that we know that television can do this, and I believe Apple has done it in his laboratory; Once Apple says you can do it so well, the value of this value, either Le or other company, can say that we are doing almost as good as him, or in some ways better than him, I am very much looking forward to the launch of Apple. Zhang Peng: An industry giant's action will dye an industry, the opportunity exists, whether it is Asus tablet, just now the host also holding an ASUS the latest pad PHONE, we can do some direct communication with the music, see what they have ideas, can also give bigHome for some inspiration. The last question, I still remember the first time I gave the teacher a hard question, call the Internet product spirit, at that time the teacher spoke very good, the past years have been talking about the entrepreneurial environment in China is not too good, we have a few mountains, there are fierce competition, and even a lot of bad dark things, Is it enough for the entrepreneur to believe in the power of innovation and the power of the product that will allow them to kill a path? How do you think young people in the Internet should be able to build their company better? Kai-fu Lee: Consumer-to-consumer mode has died, what America does, moved to China, has been dying, we also see the localization of American things to China, I am afraid not enough, the common thing to combine the innovation may still be feasible, micro-letter or, micro-bo or yy, we can learn from the inside a few spirit: first, Innovation is necessary, but there is no need to innovate everywhere, to get inspiration from elsewhere, and then to combine it. Second, no matter what you do, you must put the user's needs in the first place, not technology to find a solution, but to find the user a sore spot; third, how to use data mining needs, not just to shoot the head, if you can do the three things well, user-centric, combining different inspiration and direction to understand the trend of industry, Using data to get inspiration from the data, this is probably the three most needed way for a product manager.