Looser monetary policy will focus more on moderation

7th, the central bank open market to increase capital, the repurchase rate is also higher than the previous week, 5 basis points; on 8th, the central bank announced June yuan loans for financial institutions was 1.5304 trillion yuan a year, and the first one was renewed. Does that mean that monetary policy is or is about to turn?　　Observers believe that the central bank to increase the level of open market operations, the resumption of the first year of the vote is more in the hint of "moderate", the short-term monetary policy of moderately loose tone will not change. At present, the money market interest rate itself has rising demand. The money market interest rate level and the bank capital cost upside down are serious, from the rationalization interest rate system and the monetary policy transmission mechanism observation, the money market interest rate rises has its rationality.　　The IPO restart has also boosted the upside of the repo rate.　　The direct effect of the interest rate rise in the money market is that it will be restrained to some extent, which will contribute to the steady and reasonable growth of the loan in the second half. Recently, the market is facing more and more liquidity pressure: on the one hand, the open market funds due to a large amount of money in July, 815.5 billion yuan in the three quarter to reach the level of 1.87 trillion yuan;　　, especially the May foreign exchange accounted for up to 240 billion yuan, creating a high year, the future foreign exchange account for the growth of the pressure may continue to increase.　　In June, the continued strong growth of credit has become a direct trigger for one-year central vote restart, it has also released a clear policy signal that the central bank will not "turn a blind eye" on the possible inflation, asset price bubbles and bank credit risks caused by the excessive growth of money and credit, and fine-tune it appropriately. But it should be seen that, as the size of the distribution, the frequency of distribution can be adjusted at any time, the 1-year central vote is still a flexible means. The "fine-tuning" nature of the move does not mean that monetary policy is beginning to tighten. From the situation of China's economic development, China's economy is in a key period of steady recovery, which requires the economic incentive policy still need to maintain continuity, otherwise it may bring about the ups and downs of the economy.　　Once the economy has slipped again due to regulatory reasons, the cost and difficulty of a rebound in the economy will become even greater. In the next stage, the number-type tool is still the central bank's preferred regulation. The central bank will synthesize the amount of money due to the market foreign Exchange account changes, commercial bank credit volume and IPO restart and other factors such as open market operations, through the central vote issued and repurchase operations to regulate the credit flow of commercial banks, if the future continued to appear high credit growth situation, do not rule out the resumption of directional and three-year votes.　　There is no need to adjust the reserve ratio at present.　　In terms of price tools, liquidity is necessary to determine whether interest rates will not be cut, and it is unlikely to raise interest rates in the year; So when should we start tightening? Observers argue that a real shift in monetary policy is needed to determine the timing of domestic economic stability. First, fromThe potential growth rate of China's economy, the prevailing view is that China's economic potential growth rate of at least 8% or more, some experts even forecast that the figure reached more than 10%. If the index stabilizes at least two quarters and the corresponding price level is rising, the Chinese economy can only be considered to have returned to a stable level. Second, some of the leading indicators such as PMI continued to be higher than 50%, generating capacity, export chain growth for a long time to maintain growth trend. Third, we need to cooperate with the improvement of employment rate, the increase of industrial value, and the increase of consumption growth rate. When these indicators confirm economic growth, monetary policy will begin to tighten. In addition, due to the import characteristics of inflation in China, it is necessary to pay close attention to the changes in the external environment.