Mobile Internet, no longer become old!

On the night of April 19, Google released its first-quarter earnings, with a revenue of 13.97 billion U.S. dollars, a 31% increase, and a profit of 3.35 billion dollars, up 16%. If the Motorola contribution of 1.02 billion U.S. dollars, as well as the loss of 270 million U.S. dollars, Google is moving into a solid growth phase: annual income growth of 15% to 25%, profits also increased synchronously.

Google's move to become a challenge

It is noteworthy that Google's revenue from mobile ads and YouTube accounts for about 15%, up from 5% two years ago. According to an analysis from Piper Jaffray, mobile ad revenue accounts for about 10%. Although this performance is considered to exceed analysts ' expectations, the authors do not see this as a very gratifying performance, particularly on the wireless side, and face some of the major challenges inherent.

First, the Android dividend slows. The big development of Android over the past year has exceeded almost everyone's expectations, which is an important basis for growth in Google's mobile performance, Android users were already over 750 million by the end of 2012, and only China's Android users are approaching 300 million, and Google's chairman, Schmidt predicts, will have more than 1 billion Android users by the end of the year. Each Android user brought Google more than 5 dollars in advertising revenue, If 250 million new users were added in 2013, the average Google2013 year would be equivalent to a year-old average, which could lead to a 1.5 billion-2 billion increase in mobile advertising revenue, but new users coming from the cheap market could lower that mean, with Google's "mobile demographic dividend" Growth will slow.

Second, the total click rate growth and the hit average challenge. The number of hits on the PC side is stagnating, and the total market volume in the United States has begun to decrease, with revenue growth mainly by raising prices and overseas markets; the increase in the moving side has led to a 4% per cent decline in the cost of each Pay-per-click spending by Google advertisers. Overall, Google's total hits grew 24% in the first quarter, after a 20% increase in the previous quarter. In other words, Google's total hits are mainly driven by the mobile side, the mobile side is mainly driven by Android, a small number of iOS and other pull.

So, after combining these two factors, it's not hard to see that Google's 31% per cent increase in revenue in the first quarter could be as high as 10% from the mobile end, with nearly 7% of the pull from the mobile phone, and more than half the international market for the remaining 14% growth.

We are not difficult to find, the international market demographic dividend, mobile side of the Android dividend, mobile phone hardware Three-point growth, the international market pull is slowing, the mobile phone hardware pull has not yet, Need to wait until Xphone and Google glasses mature to know that the Android dividend is the most visible in the medium-term growth point, but also Google2013 annual performance growth of the core driving force.

The difficulty of moving and becoming present

In fact, more than Google? After 2 years of hustle and bustle in the mobile market, the manufacturers are facing the challenge of becoming more and more likely to become the main theme of the 2013 mobile market.

Where is the movement becoming difficult? In fact, Mobile is just a channel of information acquisition, rather than a specific business model, it may subvert the traditional user habits, product patterns, in the user experience and products to subvert the PC, but in the current, mobile and PC is more common than personality, and may become more difficult.

In the PC era, it is nothing more than four modes: Search advertising and display advertising (which is better than display ads, display ads better than embedded ads), value-added services (mainly games, value-added services), electric dealers (digital products and physical products). In the mobile age, still cannot escape these business models, but the ability to realize is very different.

First, the mobile side of the display ads are basically murdered, the PC era portal, navigation, basic failure, embedded app ads almost become the only remaining sites. While search advertising is still the best advertising model, but the mobile side of the search advertising value is greatly reduced, advertising value may be proportional to the area of the display. If the voice search is big, even Google glasses, which do not have built-in advertising products into the mainstream, the mobile side of the advertising ability will be further weakened.

Secondly, the mobile side of the electric quotient is a pseudo proposition. On the mobile side, there may not be a separate electric quotient mode, and the PC is approaching exactly the same, is the relationship between the cloud and the end; O2O the market may have a future opportunity to move, but in the short term it is not as much value.

Third, value-added services, especially games, may be the most complementary to the PC side of the business model. PC side of the game may be more suitable for heavy users, end-trip and large-page tour, mobile phone side may be more suitable for mobile games, debris time, social games, a part of the overlap, but the overlap is not very large. However, from Japan's Gree, line and South Korea's KakaoTalk, the mobile side of the game revenue is also difficult compared to the PC side. In a way, its competitors should be the Xbox, Wii and PSP handheld market at present, the world's three major game manufacturers are Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo, Tencent ranked fourth!

So, what we see is that the so-called move-by-turn, can be viewed entirely as a small and mobile PC. Its main space is not the so-called business model innovation, but should create suitable for mobile scene products, services, but not from the same commercial nature.

According to Nielsen's latest report, 2013, the country's smartphone penetration rate is South Korea 67%, China 66%, the United States 53%, Britain 51%, India only 10% ... The global penetration rate is over 35%. 2013, mobile Internet, no longer become old!