Nomura believes the global economy faces two recoveries this year

Xinhua Beijing January 26 (Han Yongyan) 2010, the global economy will end the recession, but it faces two recoveries, the weak recovery in advanced economies and strong growth in China-represented emerging economies, and this year will be one of the best years for China's economy in decades if the policy does not shrink sharply.　　26th, Nomura, the world's leading investment bank, held a "Nomura 2010 global Economic and Strategic Summit" in Beijing to make the forecasts for global recovery, Asian economic trends and China's economic growth this year. Nomura predicts that the global recession is over and there is little likelihood of a two recession. The global economy is expected to grow by 4.2% in 2010, but economic growth in developed countries (2% per cent) will be much lower than in emerging economies (6.6%). This is not only because the potential growth rate of emerging economies is much higher than in developed economies, but also because the factors that inhibit growth are not supply but demand; for the developed economies that have been hit by the crisis, the "deleveraging", the credit crunch, the high uncertainty, the potential fiscal drag,　　With the combined influence of many factors, such as the restriction of exchange rate adjustment, the demand growth will be depressed for a considerable period of time. The situation in emerging markets is diametrically opposed. Despite the impact of the financial crisis and the global recession, emerging economies in general are suffering from indirect harm rather than direct harm. Nomura estimates that 3.1% of the world's 4.2% growth in 2010 comes from emerging markets, with a full 2% attributable to China and India. Nomura reckons that in the next two years, the annual GDP growth rate in Asia (excluding Japan) is expected to average 8.3%. Nomura's bullish outlook for Asia stems from a new structural force, that China's positive impact will exceed expectations.　　In the 2009, the region has jumped out of its export-led growth model, the region is expected to emerge from the first pattern of changes since the Asian financial crisis, as the conditions for strong growth in domestic demand appear to have matured for the first time in more than 10 years, when domestic demand, led by China, will be the main driver of economic growth in Asia. The summit brought together a number of chief economists and strategic analysts from the major global markets of Asia, the US, Europe, Japan and China.　　At the meeting, Nomura's economists reviewed the economic situation in the world and the major economies of the 2009, and discussed their development trends in depth. "As a powerful global financial institution headquartered in Asia, Nomura has a highly competitive research team that studies the markets of the world's major economies," said Dr Huawu, head of equities and fixed income research at Nomura International Asia (excluding Japan). In recent years, especially after the outbreak of the global financial crisis, China's economic performance has sprung up to become one of the world's most watched market, China's rapid economic development, providing us with a rare successful sample, the Chinese market is the focus of Nomura Securities research. "Nomura points out that in such a challenging global environment, 20China's 8% economic growth in 09 is unusual. China's real GDP growth in 2010 is expected to rise further to 10.5% and hit a peak of 12% per cent in the first quarter. PPI inflation is expected to be as high as 6% in 2010, largely because of a boom in demand for raw materials and capital commodities, but CPI inflation will be at a moderate level of 2.5% per cent. Looking ahead to 2010, this year could be one of the best years of China's economy in decades if policy does not shrink sharply.