Only the goods will be able to tens of billions? How long can you carry?

Why does the product get to 10 billion dollars? How long can you carry?

March 4, 2014, only the goods will be released in the fourth quarter of 2013 and the full year results, only the goods will share price rose, the stock price reached 182 U.S. dollars, market value exceeded 10 billion U.S. dollars. Near the close, a slight downward adjustment, the market value still has 9.4 billion of dollars. Such a stock, who can think 2 years ago, 2012 when the market, unexpectedly break. and 2 years later, only the market value of the goods will turn 50 times times.

Only the fourth quarter of the goods will and the full year performance exceeding expectations is the only product will be the direct cause of the outbreak. But the goods will be able to rise to 10 billion of dollars, obviously not one or a performance exceeding expectations. The Red Sea is already a piece of the electric business industry, can not be as estimated to achieve 19 billion IM WhatsApp rely on the concept of winning. Only the success of the product will depend on always performance.

Let's analyze the performance of the products in the past two years.

From the table can be seen, only in the past three years in the first quarter of 2012, except for a slight decline in the chain, the rest of the quarter to maintain the trend of increasing the chain. But the margin is in the past three years for 12 consecutive quarters to maintain the quarter-on-quarter growth momentum. And the gross margin is also rising all the way, from 2011q1 17.1%, Rose, until 2013 Q4 24.5%. Only the goods will be profitable in the fourth quarter of 2012, but still lose all year 2012. In 2013 years, only goods will be profitable for four consecutive quarters, and net profit quarterly trend of the quarter.

Overall note, only the goods will continue to maintain a rapid growth momentum, gross margin continued and stable increase, profitability is also improving. Looking at the overall financial situation, on the one hand, the rapid growth of revenue, on the other hand, cost and cost marginal effect is obvious, to promote overall profitability. And the only product will be related to the revenue of several parameters, there are orders, active user number. Only 49.2 million annual orders in 2013, the number of orders increase behind the growth of active users, only the active users of the product will increase by 9.4 million in 2013. The growth of active users naturally pulls up orders. User means traffic, this is the essence of the Internet, who control the flow, who got the flow, who is the winner, who is the king. Many companies are willing to spend a lot of money to buy traffic to support the site's traffic. The most typical is the first two years of the most popular group buying network, because most of the group buying transactions one-time, user stickiness is poor, so group buying network to stimulate traffic in various ways, so the marketing market costs have been high. But the flow of goods will not be through stimulation, because its marketing cost rate is only about 4%. And it has always been at that level. This means that only the goods will not need to buy or stimulate the flow of the form to expand the user, only the flow of goods will be a large degree of the only product will own the mouth of beer. Only the product will be a significant parameter of the revenue index is active users, active users are repeated purchase of users, indicating the user's repeated purchase rate is high, it also shows that only the goods will be approved.

Again to talk about the products will only product, only products are brand products, because there are brands, at least the quality of products are guaranteed. The biggest concern for users about online shopping is whether the quality of the product is real. Jingdong's most recent advertisement revolves around the authenticity of the product: in the Thunder and lightning, calm: "It's true, I swear!" ”。 Because there is a brand guarantee, so in the only goods will buy things because there is a brand relationship, users naturally in product quality will be relieved. Of course, only goods will be the goods of the merchant's tail goods, belong to the season's products, because it is the season, you can discount a lot of concessions. For bags, clothing category, in fashion and brand, the general popular users will naturally pursue the brand and price, and give up the fashion. At the same time, with the improvement of people's living standards, but also disdain in Taobao to Amoy No brand of cheap clothing, and is willing to bring some brand to show their taste. It is because the goods in the only product is a brand, low prices. Nature is in line with the tastes of the masses, and naturally become the object of the mass chase. This may be the only product will be the key to success, for the large user base positioning, taste and reasonable price, there is a brand guarantee. And when the only product will become a large platform, the only product will be on the merchant's bargaining power naturally enhanced, so that in the supplier will also have the right to bargain, this is the only product will continue to increase the gross margin of the fundamental power.

Furthermore, only products will be the electric platform has been formed, from the electric business platform alone, only products from the technical aspects do not need to have large-scale research and development and innovation, but mainly to the electrical business Platform maintenance and technical support, so only goods will be in this area of expenditure will not be too large.

Of course, at present for the only goods will, the largest cost of expenditure, or the cost of the goods. The 2013 cost of goods fell by 2012, from 14% to 12%. But still at a high level. The decrease is due to the fact that the goods will be stored in warehouses and used for localized logistics. But how to let the proportion of logistics fall, is the only thing to be considered.

Overall, the only product will continue to increase the revenue because there are brands, low-cost, quality assurance and many other factors to form beer, create more traffic, attract more users, and eventually form the scale effect. However, the profitability of the products will increase with the bargaining power of suppliers and the marginal effect of the period cost.

Because of the synergy of user, brand, low price and so on, we believe that the product will still be able to maintain the rapid growth momentum in 2014. And with the only product will be the user group to achieve tens, only products will have begun to face to the comprehensive platform. At present, the only product will be the main clothing and bags. Only products will be next to expect a breakthrough in the make-up category, so only products will choose to buy Lok Bee Network and with the cosmetics own brand of the oriental popular cooperation. However, cosmetics seems to be with the clothing and luggage thinking is not consistent, after all, is used in the face, the user in the choice of cosmetics, or more cautious. And cosmetics are not like clothing, bags, users can sometimes pay attention to price and brand, and ignore the style, the user in some cases or fashion considerations. There is the only product in many cosmetic companies in the bargaining power is also difficult to say. Because cosmetics like some vertical electric dealer has formed a scale, and has a reputation, only the goods will want to go to the industry, it is difficult to say there is a chance of success. At the same time, only the annual sales of goods have reached 10 billion yuan, but also in bags, clothing category, which Taobao, the cat is not a good news. Presumably Alibaba Group is also considering the corresponding strategy to deal with the expansion of the only product.

The only major strategy for expanding market share in the future is to cooperate with micro-credit. With the rapid expansion of mobile Internet, users migrate from Internet to mobile internet. Only product will choose to cooperate with micro-letter platform, let micro-letter, is to quickly cut into the mobile internet to maintain the current market share. As a test water micro-trust, the only product, should be very lucky, but the micro-letter can bring to the only product will be more users and more orders can be difficult to tell. As the only product to add a promotional channel.

The rapid expansion of the product will create a myth of the electric quotient. But as revenue reaches Bai. Clothing and luggage alone seem to have reached the limit. The expansion to the cosmetics industry is clearly difficult to win. There is the face of Taobao, cat face competition. In this case, the only thing in the future may be able to maintain the current market size. Maintaining the status quo means that there is no sustainable growth rate and the marginal effect of cost and cost is no longer available. It is obviously a bit hard to keep up the market value of 10 billion of dollars.