Optimists predict October credit will exceed 500 billion

Small and medium-sized bank lending accelerated October Credit scale will exceed 500 billion experts said that the increase in SME financing space to help economic recovery and alleviate employment problems recently said, "October four lines of credit increase of 136 billion yuan." At the same time, some market participants predicted that "October credit or only $300 billion".　　Yesterday, reporters interviewed several industry experts, they generally expressed optimism that October credit will continue to the September speed, the scale will reach 400 billion yuan-500 billion yuan, or even more than 500 billion yuan. "Although the 8-day National Day holiday in early October will have an impact on bank lending, there is no sign of contraction in terms of economic growth or the operating level of the real economy, and October is a continuous development trend compared with September." According to this calculation, consider a certain impact of the long vacation, October credit or between 4000.5 trillion. The 300 billion-scale forecast looks overly conservative.　　"said Guo, director of China Banking Research Center at the Central University of Finance and Economics. Li Lichun, the chief banking analyst for Southwest Securities, calculated the credit data for October or 536 billion yuan.　　He said that the four new loans in October if the 136 billion yuan, according to the September four lines of new loans accounted for 24% of the total loan ratio can be calculated. Since the first half of the year, the bulk of bank lending is mainly the four state-owned banks, the government's planned 4 trillion investment projects mainly by the state-owned large banks to participate in lending.　　At the same time, high quality enterprises are sucked away by the big banks, the city and rural credit cooperatives, such as small and medium-sized commercial banks in a kind of loans can not borrow, do not want to borrow and find the embarrassing situation. However, in the second half of this pattern quietly changed.　　With the completion of the loan task of the state-owned big banks, the corresponding lending power reduced, the city firm and other small and medium-sized banks are a sudden rise, accelerate the pace of credit, share the credit this year to the bank's lucrative profits last "a cup of soup." "Compared to the last few months, we have actually reduced lending," a credit officer at ICBC's Shenzhen branch said to reporters. On the one hand, it is because the loan task has been completed this year, on the other hand, because of the higher mortgage, the risk is very high, the line is also under control. "On the contrary, a staff member of the Beijing agricultural firm's credit ministry said to reporters," due to the improvement of the macroeconomic situation, coupled with seasonal reasons, the end of the year farmers ' credit demand will increase, since the second half of our lending is accelerating. In addition, the demand for local government project loans has some support for credit increment. Li Lichun said that since the 3 quarter of this year, the state-owned large banks to lend power is not sufficient, in contrast, the city firm's performance more prominent. According to bank lending practices in previous years, state-owned banks lent more than the second half of the year, while the city firms were more average in the second half. As a result, the above phenomenon is also more in line with the lending habits of major banks. He also believes that the first half of China's real economy relies heavily on state-owned banks to support, and in the second half, some private enterprises and local economyBank support is needed, while small and medium commercial banks have relatively advantages. Citic Investment Chief macro analyst Wei Fengchun also said that, compared to the first half of the credit expansion of the four lines, small and medium-sized banks have more space for lending.　　At the same time, the regulatory authorities strictly enforce the capital adequacy ratio, fully compliant City firms have more advantages. "The acceleration of the city firm's loan not only slowed down the influence of the regulatory authorities on the control of credit scale, but also increased the financing space of small and medium-sized enterprises, which helped the recovery of our economy and the alleviation of employment problems."　　"Wei Fengchun said. Guo further analyzed that the fact that the state-owned large banks actually lend less is only superficial, because some big banks are now doing credit asset transfer operations, that is, the transfer of previous lending stock to other small and medium-sized financial institutions. At the same time, with the development of the retail business of the state-owned big banks, the bank buys the previous loan stock and sells it to the individual through the financial products.