Property two big boss says: The house price still wants to rise

Local shout Stop home purchase concessions, the housing market outlook is fading, the property price trend is divided yesterday, Beijing stopped a series of home purchase preferential policies, triggering the market for the real estate prospects of the general concern, institutions for the 2010 after the domestic property price trend has been obvious differences. Outside the market, institutional experts believe that the property price trend is still difficult to conclude, "The two sessions" will gradually become clear.　　But the real estate industry bosses still tone sonorous, insist that "house prices will rise." Real estate boss insist on the Beijing Housing and Urban and rural Construction Committee 11 departments jointly launched a series of property control policies to curb speculative buying, curb the excessive rise in housing prices, which, since the end of 2008, the introduction of preferential policies for home purchase has become the object of clean-up norms, in addition, Beijing also clearly stipulates　　Since January 1, 2010, the expired home purchase preferential policies have ceased to implement. Although prices have not shown signs of loosening, the debate about inflection points is suddenly. Despite this background, the real estate boss's tone has not weakened, Beijing Huayuan Group President Ren Zhiqiang yesterday again sent a blog, "by abusive prices are sent to the sky drop Pie", Li-ting Chinese house prices. He has been unable to understand the government's crackdown on the property market and the discrimination of bank credit to the property market. Ren Zhiqiang earlier predicted, "2010 house prices rose at least 5% year-on-year, usually forecast prices will fall is nonsense." Another big guy in the real estate industry, Vanke Real Estate Board chairman Wang Dan, said a few days ago, "the next three years should continue to go high property prices, there is no doubt." "The agency estimates that the long-term rise in housing prices is difficult to change the profits of the real estate bosses, or is not enough to believe."　　In the face of the property market, which has been suppressed by the policy, there is a clear divergence of views between institutions. Chinese Bank of China, which took the lead in halting the first-suite 70 percent interest rates earlier this year, said prices could fall generally. The report further predicts that "once the market shifts, housing prices are expected to be unable to compensate for the cost of holding, the second-hand housing market will be in the new home market fall in the situation, and house prices may fall larger." However, Galaxy Securities, Societe Generale is the opposite. Industrial Bank on the 2010 real estate market Situation Outlook report that 2010 housing prices may be slowed, but not the absolute price decline.　　Its judgment is based on four reasons: First, the 2010 interest rate is expected to remain low, second, people's income is expected to continue to improve, the enthusiasm for home purchase is still strong; third, the housing market supply and demand imbalances can not be improved in the short term, and finally, real estate developers have sufficient funds, lack Tente, director of the Galaxy Securities Institute, also believes that while the short-term central government will focus on and curb real estate prices too fast, but the long-term rise in real estate prices can not change. The factors that determine the long-term trend of the real estate market in any country include five aspects: Residents ' income factors, wealth and asset allocation factors, population factors, real estate financial factors and land supply factors.　　The above five points will be long-term support for housing prices continue to rise. Housing price inflection point "two sessions" after or clear Peking University real estate ResearchThe director Chan Kwok-Keung said in an interview that the housing price issue will become the focus of the "two sessions" discussion.　　Wait-and-see mentality, policy adjustment and the continued decline in the transaction of three factors, will lead to the current real estate market, "the two sessions" after the policy will become clearer, the property market inflection point will also be seen. Admittedly, since January, the real estate market has shrunk markedly, house prices have generally fallen. However, due to inertia and developers more money and other factors, the recent price remains high volatility.　　People from the government said that, in view of China's economic rebound is not solid, macro-control policy has not changed substantially, for the real estate industry can effectively stimulate domestic demand, the adjustment policy tone will not be fully shifted to austerity. However, the tightening effect of financial lever cannot be neglected. In the context of tighter credit, the real estate business is likely to be in the second half by "not bad money" to "bad money", then the pressure on property prices will be highlighted.