Public market signal is obvious when reserve ratio rises

Is buying back the 200 billion-central rate jump 8 base point boots Landing. On the evening of January 12, the People's Bank of China announced that it would raise the reserve requirement ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions by 0.5% by January 18.　　This is the first time the central bank has raised reserve ratios in 16 months. In fact, the central bank has hinted at a strong tightening signal to the market in its open market operation.　　12th issued 20 billion yuan 1-year central vote yield of 1.8434%, rose 8.29 basis points, to break the August 11, 2009 held steady in 1.7605% situation.　　At the same time, the central bank carried out a 28-day repurchase operation of 200 billion yuan on that day, a sharp increase from the 75 billion yuan in Tuesday, and the first such large-scale positive repurchase since January 10, 2008. This is also the central bank in Thursday, after an unexpected increase in the three-month issue interest rate, adjusted open market operating rate again.　　The increase in the one-year central-vote yield was already in the market's expectation, but the 8-point hike still surprised the market. The interest rate is still bullish "we thought it would rise by about 5 basis points." "On the same day, a large state-owned bond trader said," but this range is still within our reach, the market today's volatility is not particularly fierce, not cause a lot of panic, the two-tier market short-term yield rose by about 3 basis points.　　"Guotai Fixed income analyst Jiang Su also said that the one-year central-vote interest rate rose more than market expectations, reflecting the increasing signs of a tightening of monetary policy. "It is expected that the interest rate will continue to rise in the next few weeks, before the spring Festival may reach the level of 2%-2.1%, after the formation of periodic stability."　　"Zheng, a fixed income analyst at the first venture, said. He also pointed out that the central bank to carry out 200 billion yuan in the amount of the day repurchase is also forced to return liquidity pressure.　　Public data display, the open market this week, the amount of money is 208 billion yuan, the central bank January 12 operation has been achieved in advance of the net withdrawal of funds, but the first quarter of the ticket expiration amount of about 1.279 trillion yuan, plus the amount of repurchase maturity, the first quarter of the maturity of more than 1.9 trillion yuan, the central bank is still facing The reason for the central bank to start raising interest rates at the beginning of the year in its latest strategy weekly, CICC analyzed the withdrawal pressure of fiscal deposits at the end of last year and a large amount of maturity in the first quarter, followed by a dampening effect on the bank's credit impulses earlier this year;　　Central banks are thinking about managing inflationary expectations. The minutes of the People's Bank of China, released January 7, can be a glimpse. In addition to "dealing with the relationship between maintaining a stable and rapid economic development, adjusting the economic structure and managing inflation expectations", the minutes also added "to ensure a good grasp of the pace of credit delivery, to keep the loan balance as far as possible and to prevent abnormal fluctuations between the quarter and the end of the month". Judging from recent moves by the central bank, balancing the pace of credit lending throughout the year has moved into substance.　　From the experience of the 2009, the resumption of the central vote and the issuance of interest rate of the upward and stable point of view, and the credit is closely related.　　July 9, 2009, the 1-year central vote restart is due to the June new credit volume, reached 1.5 trillion of the day, and August 11 1-year central issue rate rose to 1.7605% after the stabilisation, but also because of the August new credit quickly fell to 355.9 billion.　　The recent media coverage of the new 600 billion trillion yuan loan to the banking system as at January 8, to a certain extent, also supported this view. Adjusting the next year's volume of credit has pushed up the market's inflationary expectations, which is one reason why the central bank is pushing up the reserve ratio.　　Citic Securities on January 12 raised the 2010 CPI growth forecast from the original 2.6% to 3.2%, and said that the economic recovery and inflation over expectations will lead to policy withdrawal ahead of time, the deposit reserve policy may be introduced in the first quarter, and the point of interest rate hike may be early to the middle of the year.　　Securities analysts believe that the open market operating rate has entered a continuous upward channel, the current uplink continues to be the same as the one-year benchmark interest rate close to the nature of the 1-year central vote issuance rate of the increase in the target range may be at 2%-2.25% level. However, Zheng said the interest rate will not be too early to meet the one-year fixed benchmark interest rate, because the central vote rate reached 2.25%, to further increase will need to raise interest rates to drive, but at the moment to see the first half of the bank will not raise interest rates.　　Obviously, once the issue of the central vote and the one-year fixed interest rate, the bank's subsequent operating space will be limited. In addition to the open market operation, the central bank can also choose to adjust the reserve requirement ratio or issue directional votes.　　Jiang Su also said the central bank could raise the reserve requirement ratio as early as March this year. CICC believes that, in addition to the use of reserve ratio means, for the subsequent resumption of the three-year central vote is also possible, the three-year vote will help curb the bank's credit impulses while easing the pressure on the 1-year central vote to avoid the upward pressure on the continued expansion of US-China spreads, which is expected to stabilise at the 1-year interest rate, Circulation volume after the 3-year central vote to consider the restart.