Ten years later, the net buys eight hours the arrival is the dream

Ten years later the net buys the national eight hour arrival is Ma Yun proposed. Ten years is not long also not short, everything may happen, I heard the dream of Ma Yun also feel quite worth looking forward to, but in the eyes of some competent departments and information, I have to Ma's dream expressed satisfaction with fear, at least not so optimistic.

One, Ma Yun's eight-hour logistics circle dream

Henan Yuzhou "3.68 million yuan exorbitant tolls" incident only in the past few days, of which we not only appreciate the chaos of China's toll road, but also in China's logistics cost of high reasons and solutions.

At this time, Ma Yun in full of passion and dream of the future of China's logistics: "Hope that 10 years later, in any part of China, people as long as the online orders, up to eight hours of goods can be sent home to form a real rural urbanization." ”

Mr Ma made the forecast after Alibaba Group announced its first logistics strategy. It is understood that Alibaba Group and its financial partners will initially invest 20 billion-30 billion yuan, gradually in the country to establish a three-dimensional storage network system. In the medium term, Alibaba Group hopes to jointly raise more than 100 billion RMB with other partners in the e-commerce ecosystem to develop the logistics system.

Please note that Ma Yun's China "eight-hour logistics circle" formulation is not a joke, he solemnly stressed that "do logistics is not a whim." Such a wonderful online shopping prospects, so that many peacetime online shopping often for the goods and the users in the remote area of the netizen, should be quite good news-although it is only Ma's hope.

Ii. the position of the relevant departments is not optimistic

However, ten years after the net shopping eight-hour arrival of the country may be a dream, because in the eyes of some competent departments and information, I have to Ma's dream to express satisfaction, at least not so optimistic.

First of all, we should not forget that, just a few days ago, for the Henan Yuzhou "3.68 million yuan exorbitant tolls" incident, the Deputy Minister of Communications has pointed out: "No toll road policy, there will be no traffic status in China, there is no rural road to achieve these achievements." The official also stressed that the toll road policy to support the development of China's transport system has produced a positive impetus. This shows that the country in the impact of logistics costs is the most important piece of (road charges) will not make a lot of concessions.

Second, in the past five years, China's logistics accounted for the decline in the proportion of GDP has been very little. Recently, He Liming, President of China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, pointed out that China's total logistics costs accounted for about 18% of GDP in 2010, down 0.3% from 2005. This means that the decline in logistics costs in mainland China is not as fast as we think, but rather slow, far from the average of 10% in the Western developed countries, and five years to 0.3%, when can it drop to 10%? Maybe 150 years?

Thirdly, the downward trend of logistics cost in the next 5-10 years is not optimistic. He Liming, President of China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, pointed out that 2015 China's total social logistics cost of gross domestic product is difficult to reduce to 15%. Although some provinces suggest that in 2015 the share of total logistics costs to GDP will reach 15%, but nationally, it can fall to 17%, That's a 1% drop from 2010. "The main is that the current cost is higher, the difficulty of reducing too much." "he said. At this rate, it may take forty or fifty years to drop to 10%.

Iii. Alternative thinking and alternative charging methods

Of course, this is not to say that China's logistics prospects appear bleak. On the contrary, we can think of more flexible ideas and charging methods on the premise that the problem and the decline of logistics cost are not too fast.

For the workaround, a network of friends called Kangwei, if we look at logistics costs as a proportion of GDP, will come to a completely different results. He suggested that most of the logistics demand comes from manufacturing, and according to his calculations, the ratio of logistics costs to the output of the second industry in China and the United States is 37.5% and 41.7% respectively. That is to say, the real cost of Chinese logistics costs is lower than that in America, not higher than in America. This has not been heard before, but for online shopping, can not be regarded as secondary, the estimated logistics cost is still higher, and the efficiency is lower.

As for the alternative charging method, Cai Yuhe, deputy Director General of the Ministry of Communications, said that the next step to reduce highway charges will be to use the extended charge time to achieve. He said that many foreign toll roads can be 90 years or even 100 years, China's current toll road, the longest life is 30 years.

However, Ma Guangyuan, a special commentator for the Oriental Morning Post, pointed out that the road construction model, which relies on loans to build roads and repay the money by way of fees, has congenital drawbacks. Highway as a public goods, should be mainly provided by the Government, construction funds should also rely mainly on the government to provide. Building roads is one of the government's most-worked jobs for classical economists. Because of this, despite the existence of more than 60 countries in the world toll roads, but rarely in the road construction will be "loan road, payment repayment" as the mainstream model, or even the only mode.

Of course, there are some things that sound good. Weng, Vice minister of communications, said on January 18 that all the two-level highways would be canceled in the future. By the end of 2010, China had abolished the government's two-level toll site in 17 provinces, cancelled 1723 sites and 90,000 kilometers of total mileage. However, as of 2009, the national two-level and high-grade highway toll mileage of 425200 km. This suggests that there are still too many road miles to be charged.

In short, whether to reduce or cancel some of the highway charges, are the basic ideas to reduce logistics costs, which will be a great promotion of online shopping. However, whether Ma Yun proposed "eight-hour logistics circle" hope to become a reality is still hard to say. After all, the industry and vested interests will make the decline slower than we think for a variety of reasons, and Mr Ma's hopes may be more than ten years old, perhaps decades.

In addition, "eight-hour logistics circle" is not the Ali Bama of Ma Yun is an input can be, the need for the relevant national departments and powerful enterprises to carry out a large number of equipment, facilities, warehouses and back-office information system input, coupled with the last kilometer of urban areas of transport and remote rural road construction lag problem must be addressed, To get closer to more efficient logistics.