The banking industry cannot be hit hard by the Internet

Some time ago, the financial summit hosted by the new Financial League officially opened at the National Convention Center, during which the giant investment chairman Shi Yuzhu made a speech on the relationship between internet finance and banking. Shi Yuzhu believes that, at least in a short time, the banking industry can not be caused by the huge negative impact of internet finance.

At the meeting, Shi Yuzhu also expounded his view that the banking industry will not be hit by the big reason: the banking industry is very large, interest rate liberalization, the spreads are not necessarily shrinking; the impact of the internet on banks is unlikely to flood banks; policy bonuses, reform bonuses, etc.

The full text of Shi Yuzhu's speech is as follows:

Today's are financiers, bankers, I am a layman, I said wrong, we understand. This period discusses the banking industry facing the marketization of interest rates, facing the internet impact, what will be the results of a more discussion. Many people are of the view that the banking sector will be in trouble and even dinosaurs will disappear.

I have a different point of view, and I think that the entire banking sector will not be impacted in a very long period of time. The marketization of interest rates will force banks to shift, forcing banks to change their businesses, and the Internet will allow banks to develop their financial internet as a means of changing its business.

But I don't think the banking industry will be hit hard in the future for the following four reasons.

First, because of the special historical reasons of the banking industry, our national conditions decide that our banking industry is too big. In every country in the world, the proportion of banks in the entire financial sector is limited, but the size of our total assets in China is only a small one with banks, all financial institutions across the country, all other financial institutions, excluding securities, insurance, trusts, and so on, add together, Their network is less than one-tenth of the bank, it's too big. For example, the sale of insurance, bonus insurance, 90% of the risk is sold in the bank, why? Because China's finance goes to China's hundreds of millions of consumers around the institution only banks. Because it is too big, so you want to let such a large banking sector in the short term, in three years five years, ten years suddenly disappeared, suddenly the whole industry into trouble, impossible, if the day, I think China's economy has already collapsed.

Therefore, the banking industry is China's historical, not because the foreign countries such as the United States of the financial sector is not so large, can not be simply based on the situation in foreign countries, because China is history. This is the first reason.

The second reason is that with the marketization of interest rates, does the banking sector have a smaller interest rate than Hong Kong, Taiwan and Japan, and will the banks fall into full losses? I think it is impossible, first of all, the Chinese people have to save the culture, thousands of years are the same. From the export end of money, Chinese entrepreneur culture, there is a billion he must want to do 500 million of the work, there is a billion he wants to invest 1 billion, especially our generation of entrepreneurs, this is a culture.

Anyway, there are two types of entrepreneurs who are not willing to use bank loans, one is a new Internet enterprise, the Internet is rising, why does it not like this? Because these companies are listed in the United States, American companies use less bank loans. Like our giant network (11.85, 0.04, 0.34%) is listed in the United States, bank loans are almost zero, the account has a large amount of cash reserves, almost every internet business is the case. This is the entrepreneurial culture in the Internet business.

The second is that the educated rich second generation in the West comes back to power, and this group of people will be better off. All the other businesses are hungry for money.

As long as this group of entrepreneurs do not quit the stage of history, the next decade, or even longer time, or entrepreneurs to seek banks, China's capital is short.

Why does Japan have a small interest rate? Because he borrowed 1% on the loan, it's not big, why? Because businesses do not need loans, its entrepreneurs have no desire to lend. However, developing countries, BRIC countries, like China is particularly obvious, is the desire for entrepreneurial expansion is strong, not Western countries have a dollar to do a piece of money, we have a dollar to do 10 of dollars. This culture does not change, the next 10 years, 15, 20 more and more shortage of funds, as long as the fund shortage, as long as the enterprise home to ask the bank, spreads will be small. So, what will happen after the marketization of interest rate? I don't think the spreads will shrink. This is my second reason.

The third reason, just now President Wu, Dong Wenpei chairman, talked about the impact of the internet on banks will not let them collapse? My conclusion is consistent with theirs. What does a bank do? Banks are operating credit, not simply operating money, it is playing credit. What industry is the most credit-less industry in line 360? Internet, the Internet, you do not know whether the other is a man or a woman, you talk to a girl, maybe he is a transvestite, because the Internet is full of fraud, because this is full of fraud on the Internet to do the financial, can only do local individual areas, he can not fully do.

For example, I exchange RMB for U.S. dollars, in the internet can change it? Can not change, only to the bank counters to change, because the bank counter to you is not counterfeit money, on the internet is really will be cheated, perhaps with a copier copy a piece of paper to you. Therefore, the bank has dozens of banking business, the Internet can only impact its several items, the remaining dozens of is not impact, this is the characteristics of the Internet.

Of course, I'm not saying that internet finance is not going to be a big development internet finance will have a big development, like the rise of the balance of treasure to prove this, there will be more rise, but, it can not replace the bank, it will be able to account for 20% of the bank, I think it is very remarkable, 20% on 30 trillion. 30 trillion is also very large, but you want to replace the bank, I think it is impossible.

For the last reason, there will be a dividend for the policy, a dividend for the reform. After we have canceled the food stamps from the planned economy into the market economy, we have only one industry, and now we still keep the food stamps, that is banking. The banking industry has to send food stamps every year, how many loans you can have this year, how many loans you have in the next year, and the annual coupons for everyone. The banking industry is still a over-regulation, for example, such as controlling the size of the bank, you absorb the amount of deposits, I allow you to put how much of the loan out, according to the truth, an indicator card on it, but now also three indicators in the card, the card is the same content, no difference.

The first is the deposit margin, 20%, this is universal, people are 8%, 12%, we are 20%, high a little higher, also OK. The second, deposit and loan ratio, 75%, you absorb 100 yuan of deposits, only allow you to lend 75, so that the deposit reserve to waste, this management is useless. You can't be me absorb 100 yuan deposit loan 80, no, only 75. Third, the People's bank added another, I give you food stamps, labor, agriculture, in, build, pay me how much, the rest to you how much, work, agriculture, middle, build, make better days, the local commercial banks to his annual food stamps is 30%, he received 100 yuan deposit, only allow him to loan 30 yuan, so, Prostitution. So, money management, crooked things are out, this I think is forced out.

With the interest rate marketization, now that interest rates are market-oriented, I believe our country, our leaders will certainly do this. Now that the banking industry has entered the market economy, the management of my planned economy will have to let go, at least for a large part. Because it is impossible to use the planned economy management to let the banking industry enter the market economy. So, when let go, there will be a lot of reform dividends, according to his release of content, some banks can seize the opportunity, according to his release content to catch up.

I think the bank of China now has a high interest rate, so much money, so high interest rates, there are many reasons, one of the important reasons is over-regulation. For example, there are hundreds of bank regulations that say no, that is not allowed, such as bank funds can not enter the stock market, the backward production can be loans and so on, it seems that every piece is good, but not every good, such as the crackdown on the stock market there is no reason, there are many provisions, these provisions on the surface is good.

I would like to cite an example, such as backward capacity, in 08, the CBRC to support these enterprises, unconditional loans to these enterprises. A steel mill loan 20 billion, at that time in response to the country's call for a loan of 20 billion, now suddenly said not to give him a loan, his stock of loans on that, how to do? He used to accept only 6.5% of the loan interest, because you so stipulated, he accepted 15%.　A steel, a ship, entrepreneurs to the psychological price of the increase in interest, he wants 12%, 15%, 50 areas of people put their own psychological price has been elevated, the bank will follow the interest down. So, I think it is the excessive regulation that has made China's interest go into such a vicious circle, with so much money and interest rates so high.