The irrational exuberance of the Internet

The vast Pacific Ocean connects two of the largest Internet markets on the planet: China and the United States, with the exception of the Pacific Ocean, with an obscure network cable. At both ends of the network are propped up hundreds of billions of dollars in the Internet economy, and with the constant pursuit of venture capital funds, her volume is losing control of the swelling.

According to a report by CB Insights, a consultancy, the 2014-year first quarter of U.S. start-up financing reached a new high of 2001 years since the dotcom bust, with VC completing 880 deals in the first 3 months, and investing 9.99 billion dollars into start-ups, a figure that rose 44% from a year earlier. There are 11 of startups with valuations or more than 1 billion dollars in the so-called unicorn (Kleiner's Aileen Lee calls the "unicorn", a start-up that has made $1 billion out of $100 billion, and a super Unicorn).

In 2014, Q1 's new unicorn consisted of paying start-up companies stripe, furniture dealers Wayfair, cloud start-ups Cloudera and so on. The number of unicorns that have been financed in the quarter has also been matched by the year 2013, with only 8 companies valued at $1 billion trillion last year getting funding.

Of course, the other end of the Pacific, China's internet economy is in full swing, the climax. For example, the establishment of less than 2 years of tick-tock taxi is rumored that the D-round valuation of up to 3.5 billion U.S. dollars. But the more early the project, VCs and the more the Angels grab, along with the project valuation is ridiculously high, almost every day will be the "online 5-month valuation 1 billion" fairy tale, as if we are back to the "elevator financing" era. Every investor is scrambling to throw out his unicorn or Super unicorn, even early angel investors. According to statistics of the Institute of Investment and Research, the first half of 2014, the domestic Angel investment cases as many as 199, the total investment amount of 1.122 billion yuan, investment scale beyond last year's level. The heat of angel investment is increasing in China.

The VCs are Fangweising every day, how can you make the bat's employees stand alone? So a lot of good employees come out and quit their businesses because they know that in a few months their projects are estimated at 1 billion, 10 billion, and that's not the thing.

Entrepreneurial circle of entrepreneurial heat, the creation of the circle is also entrepreneurial heat. Recently, the star investment people get together to set up a new fund, Ding Hui, Sequoia, IDG, DCM and a large number of emerging star investors, have to flee their own. In fact, the so-called "better for the chicken head, not for the tail of the head is helpless, although finally qualified to write on the card on the original partner or management partner of the title, the investment style is also autonomous, the time also has the opportunity to become the next Shen and Xiangxiao pigeons, but in fact, the management fee will not receive much, Some may not even receive (by actual investment to pay management fees), pitch project is facing more and more high premium, the most dog blood is some LP or the original Monkey fine investment big guy, so essentially is a way for the big guys to work just, as bitter force, not the same fireworks.

In my opinion, the current Internet circle, whether the United States or China, the entrepreneurial circle or the creation of the circle, the overall is a fever of all over the grand pomp. But there is no bubble, everyone has their own statements, pessimistic alert, there are optimistic advocates.

Of course, the majority of the market is still optimistic, do not think there is an internet bubble. Because of the 1999 "pure Internet" concept, the current Internet economy has a more solid communication infrastructure, good business ecology, mature Internet users and many other favorable conditions to support.

But is it? Perhaps U.S. stock data can provide us with reference to historical data. However, history does not repeat the exact same trajectory, but it is always tossing and turning in samsara. Who heard the bursting of the bubble, the Internet entrepreneur with the chicken blood, the venture capitalists stuffed with Viagra, the soaring Nasdaq, the waves of equity funds and the media that fuelled it?

Maybe when you catch a taxi one day, the cab teacher says, "according to the Big data algorithm, I guess you are a financial professional, you said I am in the hands of the Alibaba stock should not sell it?" ”

(The author is vice president of Beijing Jinma Investment, former vice president of Kleiner)

(Responsible editor: Lvguang)