The opportunity to see China Mobile terminal market from millet mobile phone

Feel Lei's ambition and inner excitement, although not in the August 16 Beijing scene saw Millet mobile phone launch of the field, but saw the Millet phone demo document. To be honest, for the millet mobile phone, my intuition is: it is just another "Made in" smart phone.

1/Lei said the Millet mobile phone user object is "enthusiasts", calm down analysis, you can say that these users are just lei himself or millet fans. Although, I also think, Lei's personal charm surpasses the J.wang of the Charm clan. But what do you do to keep your fans loyal? Price is not the main factor for enthusiasts to consider, enthusiasts need a wide range of software applications, but also need more technical innovation, like the iphone, let people guess, people look forward to. This is too difficult for lei and millet ...

2/Millet MIUI system, claiming that there are more than 100 improvements, is based on the depth of the original Android2.3 development of mobile phone operating system. Assuming MIUI is very stable, MIUI is always a follower of an Android system, but Miui and Android are not compatible, can MIUI be updated when there are significant updates to the Android system? If MIUI can be updated in time, can the software application based on MIUI adjust the update in time? This is the embarrassment of followers, Millet Miui and MIUI application developers will be very passive. But if not updated, MIUI will soon be eliminated unless Millet has the technical ability to surpass Android developers. Millet mobile phone on the miui of the weak also reflected in the millet mobile phone in the provision of MIUI system, but also provide the original Android eco-system brush machine Options ...

3/, known as the coolest voice intercom system, can indeed be called the killer application. Downloads in the itunes and Android markets are among the best and most powerful. This is more than Ali mobile phone, the charm of the family phone has advantages. But can an application support the application platform? The Phantom is also known as a community of hundreds of thousands of users, many software application developers, but how many software applications have the effect? At the same time, millet mobile phone has how much user base, enough to attract developers to pay for this platform? It's too hard for lei and millet ...

4/Can not say that Millet is an internet company, the identification of millet mobile phones and the combination of the Internet has an advantage. In fact, Apple's itunes system, built over the Internet, is the most successful e-business application environment. Application software audit and online display, download and sales management, and even member system of commodity certification system, etc., are very simple and effective, not fancy. And from the cloud service level, the iphone has done a great job of synchronizing data with the Web and the server. And the latest iOS system also integrates icloud, imessage and other functions, cloud service content is becoming more and more plump. And for millet, I very doubt, so far has not completed these service rules of the formulation and confirmation. To form such a commercial ecological environment, for Lei and millet is too difficult ...

5/Millet Mobile phone price, is the only I let my heart, but the RMB 1999 is October Price, who can predict the October mobile phone market will become what kind of situation? Moreover, in the hardware replacement upgrade frequently today, the price advantage is estimated to be the most six months leading cycle. The price of a commodity also takes into account the brand value of the commodity. The price of millet mobile phone if and Samsung like, how many fans exist? Furthermore, when it comes to price/performance, you cannot fail to say compared with the iphone, the iphone has its own chip A4, Millet is just a Chinese assembled smart phone, and music phone, the charm of the family almost in the same technical level, to catch up with the second tier of foreign brands, lei and Millet is too difficult ...

6/from marketing and sales channels, lei I really is a signboard, is said to light Lei blog has millions of of fans. But the low price strategy of the millet handset, only through the net channel Direct marketing, can maintain the profit. If so, even though the market demand for smartphones has been much larger in the past two years, but and there are a lot of online outlets to join the charm of the family compared to the next year, Millet mobile phone M8 Annual sales volume of 150,000 (09 M8 shipments, estimated value) are not bad, if you want and have obvious channel advantage of Lenovo music phone, Or and can give the price subsidy of mobile operators OPhone mobile phone, to achieve 60.7 million annual shipments, lei and millet is too difficult ... If the Millet handset sales reach 250,000 units, and 2012 forecast 3G handset Market new machine shipments 50 million units compared with the market share is only less than 0.5%. It's hard to make a difference.

I do not want to see the millet mobile phone will be followed by the Charm Clan mobile phone, become a boutique in the chicken, but from the market point of view, the millet mobile phone does not have the advantage in any one aspect to overcome other market players, assuming lei on the millet mobile phone has beyond the "earn some money" idea As a synthesizer of China's manufacturing of smartphones, there are LEI brands, MIUI operating systems, rice chat applications, cost-effective advantages, and so on, so what is the opportunity for Chinese mobile terminals?

Let's take a quick look at some examples of successes and failures in the industry:

1/apple Mobile Phone: For the Apple handset, the iphone's success integrates too many elements, the popular point, does not succeed is difficult. Stable, innovative iOS system, leading hardware technology, excellent customer experience, a good business environment and rich application software support, Steve Jobs's personal charm ... ；

2/android System: The mobile terminal operating system of open source code, Google's corporate brand, the specific environment (because iOS is not open source), so many hardware manufacturers into the Android camp. The Android system has also experienced instability and stability in the development process, but many hardware manufacturers to support the Android platform, is the Android platform for rapid access to a large number of users the success of the foundation, but also support and promote the Android business environment for continuous improvement and development;

3/symbian: Once the official Nokia smartphone operating system, but because Nokia smartphones did not get enough market share, failed to form a good business environment, eventually, Nokia had to give up Symbian, chose to combine with Microsoft, selected windows Phone system;

4/ophone: China Mobile-built mobile terminal operating system, Ophone is also based on the early Android system in-depth development, it should be said, not very successful, the reason most attributed to operating system instability;

5/Charm M8 mobile phone: Quite successful brand operation story. It is said that 09 M8 sales reached 150,000 units. M8 's operating system is a deeply optimized Windows CE system, at that time, the ideal of J.wang is also want to create a unique mobile operating system of the Phantom. Can be two years down, also failed to stick to live, follow-up mobile phone M9 directly using the Android system. The Charm family also lost its own characteristics, turned back to a pure Chinese-made mobile phone manufacturers;

From these examples, we can see several signs of successful handset terminals: the cost/performance of hardware configuration (P/C), operating system (OS), and the business environment created by software application developers (Developer), software applications (APPS) and user base (users) (Business Ecosystem). At the same time, we also understand that in the current market environment, the hardware configuration is not exclusive, relatively not the threshold, while the software application developers, software applications and user base of the business environment is the corresponding to the mobile phone terminal operating system for the choice. So fundamentally, the market contention of handset terminal, can be attributed to the contention of the operating system. In other words: a stable, open mobile operating system, more easily attract more application developers and develop more software applications, and more software applications will attract more mobile end-user. At the same time, more mobile end users to attract more software application developers to develop more applications. This is the business environment based on the platform supported by mobile operating system.

For the current mobile phone terminal market, hardware configuration is not the threshold, China is not a lack of system and application software developers, but also not in line with the use of Chinese habits of the application software, the same is not missing users, the problem is where? The original developers, users are like disunity, distributed on different operating system platform. Assuming that MIUI, Aliyun mobile phones, the Phantom mobile phone, Ophone, music phone can be unified to an operating system platform, according to the general forecast, the total shipments in 2012, that is, the number of new users can exceed 2 million, this figure should be able to account for the new mobile phone market share of the 4% strong. If coupled with Huawei, ZTE and other mobile phone manufacturers of the domestic market sales, may be able to achieve buffers's new mobile phone market share. Of course, this is a very optimistic estimate. But, if there is this user base, what worry no software application developers and software applications?

I'm not saying it's easy to develop an operating system, but it's very difficult. But the collection of the family's long, its success opportunity far more than a company's lonely struggle.

Back to the answer to the question, I think, China's mobile phone terminal opportunity lies in the domestic software developers, hardware manufacturers, and even mobile operators surmount the concerted efforts to jointly develop a set of open source, shared mobile terminal operating system, to jointly build and maintain a set of business environment based on this operating system. Only in this way can we really take advantage of China's huge and emerging consumer market to compete with Apple, Google and Microsoft.