The pattern of peer-to-peer industry is reshaping and the storm is just beginning

As the economy continues to decline this year, the deterioration in asset quality will intensify. At the same time, with regulatory policies on the horizon, peer-to-peer industry growth slowing, stock market diversion funds and other factors, the 2015 Peer-to-peer industry environment is changing, and the resulting liquidity risk may become the source of the storm.

Sheng Online Chairman Liu Zhijun opened the Pandora's box in an open letter published on his website.

February 11, Sheng Rong online release announced that the platform funds tight, and made a statement of the limit. The establishment of the 4-year Peer-to-peer platform, the cumulative turnover has been 16.5 billion yuan, the current backlog of loans more than 900 million yuan, involving more than 100,000 investors.

The issue of Peer-to-peer liquidity is being overwhelmed by more and more platforms. It is worth noting that this wave of risk has been from a small platform of unknown origin to the establishment of more than 2 years of medium-sized platforms spread. Just last month, another in Beijing, the loan also appeared in the capital chain rupture, involving the outstanding interest of 934 million yuan.

Sheng online, inside and out loan events is no coincidence.

As the economy continues to decline this year, the deterioration in asset quality will intensify. At the same time, with regulatory policies on the horizon, peer-to-peer industry growth slowing, stock market diversion funds and other factors, the 2015 Peer-to-peer industry environment is changing, and the resulting liquidity risk may become the source of the storm.

A peer-to-peer liquidity Exam

Let's take a look at what has changed in the context of the 2015 Peer-to-peer lending industry.

According to 0 financial estimates, the domestic peer-to-peer lending industry 2014 of the year's trading scale of about 250 billion ~3000 billion, is 2013 110 billion yuan 2~3 times. If combined with a large number of difficult to statistics on the offline platform, channel-type business, the overall transaction size may exceed 400 billion yuan, the loan balance of more than 150 billion yuan.

But another set of data showed that, before 2013, due to the number of platforms, funding demand is limited, the supply of network funds relatively abundant. However, since 2013, a large number of platforms emerged, all kinds of financial assets have to use network channels for sales, and Peer-to-peer investment users did not increase the proportion of the supply of network funds began to shortage.

This situation grew worse in 2014. According to the 0 financial research director Li Yaodong, the current domestic peer-to-peer lending investment in the amount of roughly 2 million people, compared with last year's growth of less than one times, far less than the size of the transaction growth rate, per capita annual cumulative investment of more than 100,000 yuan.

"The pool is expanding rapidly, but the water in the pond is not increasing proportionately," he said. "A Peer-to-peer lending platform partner believes that a healthy development approach should be that the growth rate of the transaction scale is comparable to that of the market participants, but the current growth rates of investors are clearly far below the pace of growth."

Of course, the slowdown in investor and capital growth has raised another problem: the rise in the cost of acquiring trading customers. At present, the cost of many platforms is on average as high as 300~500 yuan, and this figure is increasing as competition intensifies. Such high cost investment is also dragging down more and more platforms.

In a comprehensive way, the author thinks, despite the broad prospects of China's peer-to-peer lending market, the future growth trend will gradually return to rationality, the growth dividend from the past blank market is fading. Under this background, the Peer-to-peer lending industry, which has reached the peak of growth, is entering the process of reshaping the market pattern.

In this context, in the 2015, China's Peer-to-peer lending platform in addition to the slowdown in the industry as a result of the overall liquidity tension, the industry's internal polarization pattern will trigger the redistribution of funds, which leads to some of the platform's shortage of funds more serious.

The information provided by the Net loan day shows that, according to the practice, the cash of Peer-to-peer lending platform is mainly concentrated in mid-January to middle of February. Coupled with the year-end funding constraints, the overall turnover of the industry in January 2015 declined significantly.

However, it is noteworthy that all loans, pleasant loans and building blocks and other High-profile platform turnover has increased markedly. The net loan Day Eye thinks, the industry fund already appears the investor to the Trust degree high platform gathers the phenomenon. It also means that illiquid, risky platform liquidity problems can accelerate exposure.

Of course, there is a regulatory policy falling closer to the ground, the strength of the stock market shunt funds also bring some impact on the peer-to-peer lending industry, this will not repeat.

Where will the storm begin?

Therefore, in the author's opinion, based on the above logic, under the change of the big environment, to the Sheng online, inside and out loan as the representative of a group of high investment rate of return, a large amount of loans, business growth too fierce Peer-to-peer platform, the most weak pressure, will inevitably be the earliest problems.

First look at the basic data of these two platforms: from the income point of view, according to the net loan days of the statistics, inside and out of the loan platform issued by the nominal annual interest rate of 20% or so. When considering the loan rewards for each loan, the platform's average combined annual interest rate is 39.76%, and the peak is as high as 65%.

And the Sheng online platform issued by the borrowing standard of the comprehensive annual interest rate fluctuations, ranging from 2.5%~56%. But it is noteworthy that on the surface, Sheng online average annual interest rate of 14.85%, but the careful comparison can be found that the platform last year interest rate of less than 7% of the loan is less than 5% of the total platform, and this part of the number of borrowings accounted for more than 47%, thus pulling down the overall borrowing rate.

Meanwhile, look at these two platforms or the same type of platform data can be found, they attract investors more profit-driven, the average amount of investment is also higher, Sheng Rong online since the establishment of the pen average turnover of more than 563,200 yuan, and the loan set up to January 22 in both the turnover of the pen is about 175,700 yuan.

Since the end of last year, with the advent of the bull market, many internet financial funds have been diverted into the stock market. In terms of earnings and risk preferences, the easiest to move money into the stock market is those that lock in 15%, 18%, or even higher earnings. This part of the Sheng is just the online, inside and out of the platform covered market.

Therefore, the author believes that if the market continues to good, some investors to the stock market, those who lock high income, high-risk peer-to-peer lending platform will be more than peers to bear more liquidity pressure, but also the most likely to be the problem of capital chain rupture.

In addition, net loan days of the data show that the operating time in and out of the loan nearly two years, so far only 42 borrowers, each borrower pen is a loan amount of 318,900 yuan, the borrower can borrow up to 2 million yuan, the top 20 borrowers accounted for up to 99.66% of the total amount of loans.

and Sheng online operation for more than 4 years, so far there are about 1971 borrowers, per capita borrowing amount of more than 6.41 million yuan, the total amount of loans over 100 million yuan of borrowers 56 accounted for less than 3%, the amount of loans accounted for the total number of platform loans 50.71%.

In general, such large, high interest loans are suspected of self integration, and later proved the accuracy of this judgment. Taking Sheng online, for example, Liu Zhijun, the head of the Tonyliu, borrowed 189 million on his flat table through an account.

Sheng online, inside and out loans is not the end of the event. Peer-to-peer Industry development environment changes, the restructuring of the industry structure is underway, and this storm has just begun.