The rate of interest rate hike is almost zero in the second half

Economic Observer Network reporter Hu Yongping 15th the central bank issued a total of 160 billion yuan 3-year, the circulation of a 3-year variety restart after the new high, more than 22 billion yuan in the previous issue of circulation surged more than 7 times times.　　At the same time, the benchmark interest rate is down to 2.65%, after the 3-year central vote for three consecutive periods maintained at 2.68% level. "The reason for this is because the bond market has more money, we give the central bank quotes and reports, the results of the demand for large, natural prices down, so this is only a phenomenon, the essence of inflation expectations fall."　　"A bond trader at a central enterprise finance company said.　　Many market participants believe that inflation expectations have weakened again and that the likelihood of interest rate hikes in the second half of this year is almost Nil. Early this year, a number of market participants expected to raise interest rates in the 2 quarter, but a series of hyper-expected events in 4 and 52 months, such as property control policies, the European debt crisis, the state's repression of overcapacity and high energy-consuming companies, and many analysts had expected 6 to August will be the peak of the CPI,　　But the CPI is in fact falling, which has led to a shift in market judgment.　　So economic growth will fall in the 3 to 4 quarters, and the probability of an interest rate hike is almost nil. Economic data released by the China National Bureau of Statistics show that China's economy grew by 10.3% in the two quarter, below 11.9% in the first quarter.　　In the June monthly economic data, it is a concern of such two data, one is the industrial value added, June month, the growth rate of 13.7%, significantly lower than May 16.5%, seems to be the market fear of "two dip" coincide.　　CPI performance was unexpected, the June inflation rate of only 2.9%, again fell below the 3% range, also significantly lower than the market expectations of about 3.3% of the level. "On the contrary, it is expected that the policy will be moderately relaxed in the second half of October. But in a word, the rate of decline should not be greater, that is to say neither raise interest rates nor cut interest rates.　　Said the financial company trader.　　Shen Jianguang, chief economist at Mizuho Securities Greater China, said monetary policy would emerge from tighter monetary policy in the second half of the year, and that China's economy would succeed in a soft landing in the second half. However, ANZ China research director Liu Ligang that in the second half of the year, due to the number of central votes in the second half of 2009, the issue of the number of votes will be due to decline in July after the rapid fall, which also means that the bank in the open market operations in the space will be compressed. In this case, in addition to quantitative tightening, the use of interest-rate instruments will inevitably. More importantly, the elimination of real negative interest rate can fundamentally restrain the strong investment demand, and reduce the fermentation of speculative demand, at the same time conducive to the bank in the allocation of resources to play its due role and efficiency.