Tokyo property bubble likely to reproduce China

Since the Spring Festival in 2009, after more than a year of downturn, to Beijing, Shanghai and other cities as the representative of the country's many local property market price Zisheng situation, this has been divorced from the actual purchasing power of ordinary people's real estate prices further soar. So what is the cause of this situation, the second half of the Chinese property market will go to where, the property market will be a bigger bubble?　　China Economic Times reporter on June 26 interviewed the China Real Estate Industry Association vice President and Secretary-General Zhu Zhengyi, in order to brush aside the fog, restore the market truth.　　China Economic Times: What are the reasons for the first half of the housing market? Zhu Zhengyi: The first is the positive policy. Since the end of last year, the central and local governments have introduced a number of measures to stabilize the real estate market; second, the real estate enterprises in the first half of this year, a few months ago to adopt a reasonable price promotion method; Third, since last year, the backlog of rigid demand, supported by this year's good policy The impact of market inflation expectations may also be a factor.　　Due to the existence of inflationary expectations, investment demand began to enter the market, coupled with the people "buy up not to buy a fall" mentality to make the housing recovery speed.　　China Economic Times: the current housing market warmer will continue to what time? Zhu Zhengyi: The housing market warmer can continue to what time, we are still in close observation.　　However, this is closely related to the macroeconomic situation.　　Now, the macroeconomic situation is in a good direction, so, overall, the second half of this year's property market should say or to the good direction of development. However, after 2007 years of market, now we are more rational, so the second half of this year's property market fluctuations should not appear.　　But if some developers are not rational, real estate pricing is too high, its sales may fluctuate. China Economic Times: when Europe and the United States into the financial crisis, the housing sales are not ideal.　　However, the performance of China's property market in the financial crisis appears to be "a solo show", What is the reason?　　Zhu Zhengyi: The most fundamental reason is because our country and Europe and the United States are in different historical development period. First, some countries in Europe and the United States are really more affected by the financial crisis, they support the foundation of economic recovery is relatively fragile. They are because the financial crisis has affected the real economy, however, our country's financial overall is relatively stable, and our financial support our economic development, which is different from the European and American countries, and secondly, the European and American developed countries, urbanization, industrialization is basically in the saturated period, and our country's urbanization,　　Industrialization is still in a period of rapid development.　　The two most fundamental differences result in different results.　　China Economic Times: What do you think of China's real estate industry in the second half of the trend, the second half of the price will continue to rise?　　Zhu Zhengyi: Overall or in the direction of good development. However, the performance of different cities is not the same, because the real estate industry is the biggest feature of the region is relatively strong. Some of the earlier cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing and other cities, the local hundredLast name of the ability to pay stronger, strong demand, the proportion of foreign people to buy a relatively high, so these local housing market signs of recovery is more obvious, warmer pace is relatively fast. And some cities, such as the Midwest, although their housing prices are not very high, but if the stock of housing pressure is relatively large, and there is not much demand for the purchase of foreign people to support, the city's property market warmer relatively slower.　　This is also the real estate market this year more prominent characteristics.　　Overall, the first half of this year's housing market warmer than expected faster, the second half of the property market will also be a good direction, but different cities and different regions reflect the characteristics are not the same, the characteristics of the difference may be more obvious. The question of whether the price you mentioned will continue to rise, due to the regional characteristics of the real estate market, is not a general answer. But what you can answer is that if the location is good and the transportation is good, the price will continue to rise.　　Conversely, it does not necessarily continue to rise.　　We are now looking at a house in the center of the central city of western developed countries, where house prices have not fallen even in the midst of the financial crisis.　　China Economic Times: If house prices continue to rise irrationally, will China have the same bubble as Japan's Tokyo and Hong Kong's property market, and thus affect the economy? Zhu Zhengyi: To be honest, this possibility is still there. As our trade association, we always hope that the industry can develop steadily.　　Two days ago I talked with some real estate enterprises also said a few words: is the hope that our enterprises can be the overall situation, according to the law, to sell at a reasonable price, and jointly maintain the stable development of the real estate market situation, to rational view of the market, not impulsive blindly price increases. China Economic Times: Some people believe that the amount of credit in the past few months to enter the market, will undoubtedly lead to excess liquidity in the market.　　What effect do you think the excess liquidity will have on the property market in the second half of this year? Zhu Zhengyi: The increase of liquidity will certainly make the investment demand increase, to revitalize the real estate stock is beneficial. But at the same time, we feel that as long as we can maintain a stable supply of land, the housing enterprises can maintain a reasonable development mechanism, at least it is not harmful to the economy.　　For the country to deal with short-term adjustment and long-term stable and healthy development of the relationship. Will it cause a bigger bubble in the property market? That's what I just said. How to deal with short-term adjustment and long-term stable and healthy development of the relationship. This includes, for example, when a property tax is introduced, to do a good job of housing census, to consider the reasonable investment mechanism of real estate, to consider the relationship between the new and stock, to consider the relationship between the second-hand house market and the leasing market, and so on, if these deep-seated problems to deal with better, the property market bubble problem can be avoided,　　Conversely, there could be a bigger bubble. In Jiangsu, for example, it is estimated that the digestion of its stock room may take about 1.5 of the time, but now it seems that, if according to the sales speed of the first few months of this year, the stock may only need six or seven months to digest. This time the government may need to consider from another angle, how to keep the land flatSteady supply, maintain a certain scale of development, do not make house prices rise too fast, but also to the second-hand housing market and leasing market. This is a coordinated development problem, I think as long as can coordinate the development of the property market will not have too much bubble.