Two loose policies leave part of the hangover: CPI upside down asset prices

Last year, with the support of the "double easing" policy, our country successfully completed the goal of keeping growth. However, after the success of "Bao-eight", China's economy will still face a lot of difficulties, the year-end CPI rebound, export rapid increase in the surplus, as well as in January this year, new loans in just two weeks have exceeded 1.1 trillion yuan, these phenomena seem to be ringing the alarm of inflation.　　The rapid rise in the reserve requirement ratio and the three-month central bank note issuance rate, which rose nearly 4 points after a week of stagnation, also appeared to be releasing signals of a policy shift. Asset prices have risen rapidly in order to maintain steady economic growth, in 2009 we implemented a positive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy.　　However, some experts pointed out that in the moderately loose monetary policy last year, the emphasis on "loose" and relatively neglected "moderate", reflected in the credit, that is, a large number of loans. At the end of March 2009, the loan balance reached 34.96 trillion yuan, the new credit reached 4.58 trillion yuan, the annual plan added 5 trillion, a quarter more than the annual new plan 90%. The first half of the new credit reached 7.37 trillion yuan, by the end of October, the balance of loans reached 39.97 trillion yuan, an increase of 37.14%.　　The market estimates that the new bank loan has reached about 9.5 trillion yuan a year, an increase of 31.7%. Although the large amount of loans to promote economic recovery, the promotion of industrial development has played a financial support role, but also some analysts said that because of ignoring the loan structure, excessive loans into the capital market, especially the real estate market, promoting asset prices, including stock prices, especially housing prices, prices can be said to go crazy, the king frequency.　　But the exorbitant house price not only accumulates the financial bubble, but also pulls the big income distribution disparity, squeezes the consumer demand. At the end of the year, import and export significantly accelerated from trade data, the 4 quarter, especially in December, exports showed a clear recovery, the National Bureau of Statistics released data show that December exports year-on-year growth of up to 17.7%, imports, 4 quarters of imports continue to maintain a rapid growth momentum, when the quarter growth of 22%, far　　In this context, the 4-quarter surplus fell nearly 50% year-on-year.　　The rapid and sharp rebound in import and export growth has also increased price pressures, exacerbating fears of inflationary expectations and even overheating in the economy, which could trigger an early withdrawal of policy. Zhang, a researcher at the China Center for International Economic exchange, said that one of the main reasons for the increase in imports was much higher than expected because of price factors, with lower commodity prices in the international market at the end of 2008, while crude oil prices have doubled over a year ago.　　The general pick-up in commodity prices in the domestic or international markets, while there are factors of demand, will also bring about inflationary worries. The policy focus shifted to a "moderately" positive policy of "double easing", and last year our country successfully responded to the difficulties caused by the financial crisis.　　So this year, more should be considered how to maintain the growth of the situation, to consolidate the existing situation. It is reported that in the first two weeks of January this year, the new renminbi loan hasA breakthrough of 1.1 trillion yuan, with the 2009 economic data, and the central bank recently raised the deposit reserve, the CBRC also put forward to grasp the pace of credit, to prevent financial risks, are seen by the market as a policy or will tighten the signal. The economic environment, highlighted by inflationary pressures, which relies on investment and credit expansion to stimulate the economy's emergency-type development model, is clearly difficult to replicate in 2010. Analysts said that the implementation of prudent macro-policy-oriented inflation expectations management, to promote the return of money supply "normalization", the central bank's monetary policy adjustment is the key.　　Central bankers also said recently that the focus of China's monetary policy this year is "moderate", urging commercial banks to make a reasonable and balanced loan in accordance with the target of 7.5 trillion yuan total annual loans. Analysts also said that the quantitative regulation of the first half of 2010 monetary policy adjustment of the main choice, the start of the super loose monetary policy exit mechanism, to rectify the adaptability of the economic system of excessive liquidity recovery and credit scale moderate control is the next phase of Central bank monetary policy of the basic orientation.