Two months of the national 10 King land price property prices to push the market near the inflection point

"Editor's note" June the last day, Chaoyang District, Beijing, Canton Canal Gate 15th plot of the auction like a drama like a show of concern, the city was eventually "Dark horse" square hing real estate to 4.06 billion yuan sky-high price off.　　After a Jietan, the discussion about the land price, the house price is getting more and more out of hand, watching a developer to am posture Crazy enclosure, ready to buy the house people more anxious: the land is so expensive, build up the house how expensive ah, hurriedly shot it.　　The State Department's recent demand for a real estate market is a healthy development, which suggests that preventing overheating and excess is a concern for policymakers because any market that ignores the extraordinary leap forward in the overall macroeconomic situation is frothy.　　There is nothing wrong with "The King of the Earth", but let the people afford the house.　　Gu Haibo, a private property analyst and senior economist at the Shanghai Urban Economic Society, recently tried to convey to the public the idea that the property market is again bursting with bubbles.　　In some recent real estate forum, he will take pains to find every opportunity to refute the stage to sing the words of many people, and always show an impassioned, eye-catching.　　June 30, he sent a long article to the media, the title is "real estate in the eve of the inflection point." The same afternoon, a Beijing land auction was born this year, the new king, Fang Hing Real estate to 4.06 billion yuan to win the Chaoyang District Wide Canal Gate 15th block, refreshing Beijing land sales since the total price and floor price two records.　　From April to June, the national land market has produced 10 kings (see annex). "Bidders have lost their senses, and the Beijing land market bubble has indeed emerged."　　"Pan Shiyi, the chairman of Soho China who failed in the bid, concluded.　　July 23, Shanghai will carry out a new round of land transfer, the most popular Qingpu Zhao Lane 10th plot has 58 developers to collect the listing documents, the industry has begun to give up QINGPU plot price will be "disregard" idea.　　　　has just recovered from the downturn in the property market, is it going into a new madness? In less than two months of the national land market, Beijing King's record was refreshed 4 times. First is the decimating real estate, May 21 to exceed the initial price of nearly 4 times times the prices of 1.022 billion yuan to take away the Canton Canal Gate 10th. One months later June 25, Beijing Tongzhou Nine tree plots at a high price of 1.74 billion yuan to refresh the Canton Canal door 10th of the record of 1.022 billion yuan, to become the new king. Only one day, Chengdu, China-ze Real Estate Co., Ltd. to 1.96 billion yuan to win the Beijing Olympic Village Township block.　　Four days later, the record was replaced by the new Land King Wide Canal Gate, plot 15th. In the case of high land prices, only one months in June, Beijing's land transfer revenue exceeded tens of billions of dollars.　　And a similar situation is not limited to one place. June 26, experienced more than 80 rounds of bidding, Poly Real estate to 3.81 billion yuan to win Chongqing Hong Temple "King." In Shanghai, the latest transfer of the sameLots of land 70% premium over 100%. According to the latest Land transaction information published by China Index Research Institute, May, 60 key cities in the country have sold 553 cases, an increase of 73%, the land area of 26.86 million square meters, an increase of 89%. More than one-third per cent of residential land was sold at a reserve price, with an average premium of 56%. Last week, the country's 20 key cities, a total of 36 residential plots, 600% chain increase, the deal land area of 2.53 million square meters, the chain increase of 833%.　　　Among them, there are 5 plots premium level of more than 100%, there are 11 plots premium level of more than 50%, 20 parcels of land premium less than 50% transactions. The analysis of the Yangtze River Securities analysts pointed out that from the perspective of real estate developers, the current market prices are rising, inventory quickly decline, the original tension of the capital chain now become loose.　　At the same time, lending rates have fallen to 1996 levels, and the state's demand for residential capital funds to be slashed to 20%, as well as the easing of local government land transfer payments, will promote a new wave of real estate investment development. Spurred by a rebound in macroeconomic data in the second quarter, in an environment where liquidity is still loose, and where inflation expectations remain unchanged, the growth in real money demand for businesses and residents will decline, resulting in a rapid decline in savings growth and continued expansion of real estate investment demand, with the result that house prices continue to rise. The rigid demand in the third quarter, stimulated by investment demand, still has the hope to maintain high turnover.　　At the same time, because of last year's Land financial constraints, the local government has a lot of push to the will, the developer's enthusiasm is likely to be a full burst, the land price naturally also rise, there may be a new king emerging. The latest report of Galaxy Securities also said that as the market for developers expected changes, the second half of the land market, similar to the hot scenes will continue to play. The report says, the logical relationship between house price and land price is fully demonstrated in this round of real estate adjustment: The relationship between supply and demand determines the price, the price of house prices, the price drop led to the fall of land price, the steady recovery of housing prices led to a stable recovery.　　As the total supply of land is limited by the urban planning and the red line of arable land, the new supply pressure is increasing; in the last three years, a large number of affordable housing construction sites have been needed, and under the relative stability of the total land supply, the total share of the commercial housing supply has shrunk. On the other hand, the commercial housing market will gradually change the developer's expectations, stimulating developers land purchase enthusiasm. After the sale of funds, the developer hands cash began to be abundant, and the capital ratio of the substantial reduction, significantly improve the investment capacity of enterprises.　　The investment enthusiasm and the investment ability double rise, the land demand must rise, and the commodity housing supply is limited, it is possible to push the land price to rise, aggravate the battle of the ground resources.　　Many institutions are consistent high sounding and land prices are in sync with the price of the further bullish. After the birth of Beijing King, SouFun released a survey data showed that 52% of users think that the price of land is too high, 34.09% of net friends think the price is reasonable, only 13.64% of netizens think the price can be higher. In addition, 57.3% of users believe that the plot development, the house price will be 20000-30000 yuan/square meters above, 33.71% of users think the price will be in 30000-40000 yuan/square meters above, 5.62% of the netizens think the price will be more than 40000 yuan/square meters, Only 3.37% of users think the price will be less than 20000 yuan/square meters.　　More than 60% of users believe that such a high land price will have a decisive impact on regional housing prices.　　Franshion, the land buyer, said the premium was still in a reasonable range, not exceeding the company's expectations.　　Pan Shiyi also said that within a week Beijing has been born two consecutive kings, meaning "flour than bread" phenomenon again, this will be on the Canton Road 15th, including Beijing's housing prices produced a strong upward-driving role. In fact, the birth of high prices has directly increased people's expectations of house prices. Since the Canton Canal door 10th to 1 billion yuan sky-high price of real estate income in the bag, the surrounding second-hand housing prices will rise.　　In the vicinity of the city of Fuli, for example, the previous average price in 22000 yuan/square meters of the house has now averaged 3000 yuan/square meters, some owners even bid to 28000 yuan/square meters.　　Poly in Chongqing Hong Temple after the birth of the king, according to local intermediary agencies predicted that the regional housing prices will be directly from the current 5000-6500 yuan/square meters towards 9000 yuan/square meters. In recent years, the industry has been surprisingly consistent with the real estate market. Data show that January-May national Commercial housing sales of 246 million square meters, more than the 2007 level, became the highest peak in nearly 11 years.　　This gives the vast number of developers and the industry has brought full confidence. Guotai Real Estate industry analysts believe that the current industry is in the rational first stage of the rise in house prices, after the housing bubble process will undergo a half-rational and fanaticism to two stages of mania.　　Pre-2009 National housing prices rose 5%-10% year-on-year.　　China Merchants Securities recently released a research report that the global real estate market will be bottomed in 2010, and the Chinese real estate market has bottomed out, a new round of real estate growth cycle has begun, the next few years, Chinese real estate will grow steadily.　　CICC International analysts have made clear that the real estate industry reversal is imminent, China's housing prices will be a structural increase.　　Wanguo said that 2009 prices could exceed 2007-year highs and investment funds would continue to go into the market.　　GF Securities also bullish on the development trend of China's real estate industry, that the next two years the national housing prices rose 10% per annum.　　There are also foreign-funded institutions that express the same enthusiasm. Wang Zhenyu, head of Asian real estate research at UBS, said that according to an analysis of mainland real estate companies listed in Hong Kong in June or July, there would be room for a downward adjustment in real estate stocks from June to July, especially since this year's very largeMainland Real Estate stock sector.　　However, after the correction, the mainland's real estate stocks will continue to support the policy, and August will have a rising space. The performance of China's real estate sector is still worth looking forward to, said Jing Ulrich, chairman of JPMorgan's China securities market. It believes that high residential sales or will drive real estate investment.　　As inventories of the property market decrease and sales rise, the new area will increase and residential investment may increase markedly in the second half of the year, prompting a rise in demand for building materials. JPMorgan's chief economist, Frank Gong, is more optimistic, saying that expectations of a price cut in China's housing market have been reversed, and developers are unlikely to be able to come back to selling at a loss in the event of a rebound in the property market and ample cash.　　JPMorgan forecasts that China's house prices will rise by 5% to 10% this year, while next year's rise will reach around 10%. The housing market in the formation of a new round of bubbles now it is easy to remind people of the 2007 years of the National property market.　　Rising prices, the king bursting, the price of the hurricane ... November 2007, the planned listing of private enterprises Longhu real estate and Singapore-listed Ren Heng Real Estate on the same day in Shanghai set a two sky-high price, Longhu real estate to 1.54 billion yuan at the cost of Qingpu Zhao Xiang Town features 8th plot, making suburban land deal floor price for the first time breakthrough million.　　At the time of the cycle, they were the last of the land market, one months later, the market from hot to cold, the market from the decline in turnover to real house prices, the adjustment has been extended to the subsequent 2008 a full year.　　Experts unanimously attributed this round of property investment enthusiasm to the wealth-master's concern about inflation. Guyunchang, vice president of China's Real Estate industry association, said that countries are increasing liquidity, including China, also in the issuance of loans, if not into the real economy, it will flow into virtual economies such as real estate. When liquidity freezes, cash is the king and assets are king when liquidity is excessive.　　Coupled with the narrow domestic investment channels, the best channel is to buy a house value added.　　Guyunchang said that after the introduction of the 4 trillion investment plan, the domestic economy has a clear national retreat phenomenon, which caused many private enterprises to temporarily not operate entities, and some other real economic conditions good reinvestment, the factory turned over to invest in real estate industry.　　Gu Haibo described the phenomenon as a typical manifestation of the bubble. "China's property market is one of the biggest bubbles in the world, and the property market has obviously kidnapped the Chinese economy and China's broad and middle-income people," Gu Haibo said fiercely.　　"The real estate market has become a veritable casino," he said. He said that in Shanghai and throughout China, residential rents were lower than the one-year bank deposit rate, much lower than the lending rate. Statistics show that the rents of all types of properties have been declining since this year, when prices have risen slightly. According to the Shanghai Office of Housing Leasing Index statistics, May 2009, Shanghai's Housing rental index of 1192 points, the chain decline5 o'clock, the decrease was 0.4%.　　At the same time, office buildings, shopping malls, hotel-style apartments, whether sales or sales price, whether the rental volume or rent are not obvious improvement, especially the Grade A office rental and sales prices, rents are creating a recent low.　　In this case, more speculators are buying a house today just for tomorrow's sale, are gambling on the "price difference", once the subsequent purchasing power, once the overall economic downturn, capital chain rupture, then bubble burst, throw out, the rational return of house prices become inevitable, and now China's real estate bubble is being raised in the process. The real estate Circle experienced a number of cycles in the Central Plains real Estate Chairman Shiyong also clearly expressed the recent housing boom false assertion. He said the housing market is now booming, and the real economy is a departure from the status quo. In Hong Kong, unemployment is rising, middle-class incomes are falling, and affordability is falling.　　In fact, the whole socio-economic activities are slowing down, and the decline in rents from office buildings and shops can also show that business has not improved or even deteriorated. Shiyong said that on the one hand the real economy is shrinking, on the other hand people are worried about inflation. The biggest problem with the property market now is that the price rise lacks economic growth and is based on a shift in asset-storage mode, which lacks new purchasing power. "The property market is also forming a bubble, mainly because real estate is not synchronized with the physical economy," Shiyong concluded.　　"Foreign investment has not ventured into the same way as the previous adjustment, the bad omen was first seen in the Shenzhen market." From June onwards, the rush of Shenzhen house prices began to show weakness. June 27, Shenzhen One-bedroom deal still has 222 sets, but the average price has dropped to 13044 yuan/square meters. Last week Six days of trading volume maintained in 1411 sets of relatively low, the average price of only 13743 yuan/square meters, compared to the beginning of 1829 sets of turnover, average prices of 16541 yuan/square meters of high, the end of the volume of up to 20%. In fact, the property market in Shenzhen has been adjusting since June.　　In the previous week, Shenzhen first-hand room market a total of 1416 sets, the chain fell 13.9%, at the same time, the average price of 14815 yuan/square meters, the chain down 0.9%. Meanwhile, the proportion of Shenzhen investors has increased sharply.　　Central Plains Real Estate Second-hand transaction survey, 2009 1-May, the demand for their own housing declined, investment demand climbed from 8% to 14%, close to the peak of 2007.　　As if in front of the market, the most crazy 2007, it is investors desperate speculation in the house led to the eventual bursting of the bubble.　　Pan Shiyi observed a detail on the June 30 auction site that deserves attention. The 11 companies participating in the auction were Chinese enterprises and none of the overseas companies took part in the sale of the No. 15th block of Guang-qu Gate.　　These phenomena reflect the global capital to China, especially the Beijing real estate market crazy take the move is not optimistic. It can be found that in the past six months, the phenomenon of foreign land is almost extinct, most of the king fell into ChinaThe hands of local property developers. At the same time, foreign-funded institutions have opted for low-cost quick cash rather than additional investment. The bankrupt US Lehman Brothers disposed of 7 of 9 loans and bonds related to Chinese property, of which 6 involved commercial real estate in Shanghai in exchange for about 200 million dollars. One of the Fuhai shopping malls project discounts close to half. Macquarie, an Australian investor, sold a city hotel apartment in Shanghai, where the final deal was 40% lower than the original purchase price.　　POSCO, a South Korean industrial enterprise, sold its Pudong Lujiazui commercial property at a discount of nearly 40%. Extension of the Ministry of Land to reorganize the soil "grant but not": the rate does not increase, the moratorium on new land grant according to Beijing, July 1 Xinhua News Agency for China's Urban construction land grant and not use the phenomenon is very prominent problems, the Ministry of Land and Resources will start a comprehensive clean-up activities.　　For areas where land-use rates cannot be significantly increased, construction land will be suspended for approval. Reporter 1st from the Ministry of Land and Resources was informed that at present, some parts of China is prevalent on the one hand, land use planning indicators, on the other hand, urban construction of land grant without levy, Levy and not outstanding phenomenon.　　To this end, the Ministry of Land and Resources recently decided to clean the batch without land, etc. into the "double Security action", and as a follow-up phase of one of the key tasks. According to the Ministry of Land and Resources "on the growth of the red line in the operation to expedite the processing of batches of land and other work of the notice", local land and resources management departments at or above the county level shall, in accordance with the relevant land-use approval documents, the implementation of the approved documents for verification of the project, to the 2007 and 2008, all batches and not used to clean up the statistics, itemized registration, Set up a database to deal with opinions separately. The results were escalated to the provincial land and resources management department.　　The land routine inspectors in the second half of this year will also focus on the use of the land after the construction and the disposal of the lands. The Ministry of Land and Resources requested to classify and dispose of the approved land. The disposal of land not used in batches should be used as a priority for expanding domestic demand. Provincial Department of Land and resources to strengthen supervision, to deal with the relevant formalities. If the land requisition and land is not implemented after two years after the approval of agricultural land conversion, the approval documents are automatically invalidated. Where land expropriation has been carried out for two years, the corresponding indicator is deducted in the next year when the Agricultural land Diversion Plan is issued. Due to the project itself cause of the lack of land, timely adjustment to the need for land projects.　　Not in time to handle the procedures for the land and not willing to adjust the project, to urge the use of land units to deal with the formalities, the deadline to start construction, otherwise due to the cancellation of the project land. Ministry of Land and resources requirements, provincial land and resources management departments in the Total province (district, city) batch and not land clearance results on the basis of the establishment of classified treatment, the organization of specific implementation. In accordance with the liquidation of the land to determine the priority of the clean up the area, to the batch and not use a higher proportion of the land (city), to increase supervision and rectification efforts.　　By September this year, construction land will be suspended for approval in areas where land-use rates are still not significantly improved. The Government is not anxious to intervene most industry insiders believe that because the real estateMarket more belongs to the policy city, the policy is not changed, the market will not be able to turn its own direction.　　In fact, in the past year or so, whether the market's sharp or abrupt rise, for the same reason: macro-control.　　There is no sign of renewed intervention from the government.　　The newspaper reporter recently interviewed the State administration of taxation related people, the person told reporters that, "the economy has not up, the overall price of housing has not risen too much, can not have any regulatory measures."　　At the same time, the Government's interpretation of the current market is also different from our observation. Ministry of Land and Resources in China Surveying and Planning Institute's dynamic land price monitoring shows that the first quarter of the national commercial, residential and industrial use of land prices compared with the level of the end of 2008 overall decline; in the second quarter, 105 monitoring cities nationwide, the land price is still declining and basically remain unchanged will be the majority　　The first half of the land price level will not be higher than the same period last year, the phenomenon of larger rises in individual cities only occurred. "From the current monitoring data, the land market has not suddenly warmed up, and there has not been some media said ' snapping up the tide ', the recent emergence of ' sky-high price ' is only a separate phenomenon." "Chao Song, director of the Land Survey and Planning Institute of China, Ministry of Land and Resources. Chao Song said, but rationally, there will be no sudden fluctuations in land prices.　　The "sky-high price" as a case does not represent the overall rise in land prices, nor can it drive prices soaring. "Just like a child drinking a milk too long, eat other things will be diarrhea, the government began to rely on real estate, has been accustomed to rely on real estate to promote the economy, it is difficult to change." The government can put more land on the market and push down the trend of house prices, but the government does not want the house prices to fall, nor does it want prices to rise too fast.　　Shiyong said.　　This year to the whole country "king" profile (units: billion) time and the city plot prices exceed the price of the developer competitor April 28 Dalian Hi-Tech Zone Mao Red Road 7 block building area of 1.3635 million square meters 37.48 gold match to April 29, Hangzhou South Road Hook Mountain B plot, Construction area 15124 square meters 7,230% Shangcheng District Investment Group Zhejiang Hongsheng etc May 13 Shanghai Xuhui District Oblique Dirt Street 107 neighbourhood construction area 200,000 square meters 12 Greenland Group May 22 Foshan Fernand (hang) 2009-015 commercial and residential land, area 225,000 square meters 13.865% Vanke Poly, China Sea May 26 Nanjing Pukou Top Mountain Street Directional River Road East, area 118,000 square meters 2.613% Nanjing Ping ' an electronics Jiangsu Gan Yang, Nanjing Catalong June 10 guangzhou zhujiang New Town D8-C3 commercial and residential plots, building area of 22514 square meters 3.45154% Guangzhou City Construction Group Poly, Hopewell June 11 Shenzhen South Park, Ai Hua Road, West Side commercial and residential land, building area of 18500 square meters 0.8356% shenzhenXinhai Investment Company 8 Developers June 8 Xiamen Lakeside Reservoir Phnom Penh Road East Massif, building area of 453,000 square meters 30.25% Shimao Real Estate Vanke, Zijin mining June 25 Chongqing Hong Temple plots, building area of 1253100 square meters 38.132% Poly Real Estate Vanke, Longhu, the Golden Branch June 30 Beijing Guang Qu 15th block, building area of 280121 square meters 40.6146%, Fang Xing Poly, Vanke, Soho China