What is the job market in 20 years?

Are you an aspiring lawyer, a policeman, or a programmer, but at this point you have to pay attention because a lot of the work in these industries will be replaced by a computational program from 10 or 20 years from now. As many economists have predicted, this is likely to happen right away in some way. Now, for example, there are a number of computational procedures that can be completed by some attorneys, patent attorneys, and even contract attorneys. In Doha, Qatar, and in São Paulo, Pakistan, and Beijing, local governments will install inexpensive sensors on water infrastructure such as underground pipelines and water pumps, so that they can detect leaks with caution. The practice has also sparked speculation that, once these sensors have been installed, no more law enforcement officers will be needed to perform patrol inspection equipment. Even programming, one of the most stable jobs of the 21st century, may also be replaced by robots, in the future some robots will load machine learning functions, let computing programs write code, or optimize design choices. According to a 2013 study by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne of Oxford University, in the next 20, 47% of employees across the United States will have to face the fact that they are being automatically replaced. Everything is telling you one thing, if you're going to college now and assuming the world still works, make sure you can continue to do it at the age of 40 when choosing a career. Today, some traditional jobs are crumbling, and even economists are not ready to predict the future job market, but they can provide some universally accepted guidelines for career development. Basically, if you generalize in one sentence, you have to be smarter than your computer. In the words of Erik Brynjolfsson, it is to find some work which only one can do, and the machine cannot do. Erik Brynjolfsson is a professor at MIT and co-author of the second Machine age, and another author is Andrew McAfee. So what can you do to become smarter than a robot? This article will give some advice: a high degree of exposure there is a growing demand for work in a field that is known as high contact, such as private trainers, family health assistants, and wedding planners. In other words, these jobs cannot be outsourced to India or China. Rhys Grossman, manager of the Russell Reynolds Associates consultancy, predicts that there may be some new jobs in the coming years, for example, that there might be a job in the future like the role of EHR Phoenix in the movie "Joaquin". In that movie, Joaquin Phoenix plays the leading actor Theodore TwomblY is a writer. Matt McGraw, the founder and chief executive of the Lions, a technology recruiting firm, said the high level of contact work would extend to sales positions. McGraw says consumers today have access to more data, but there are still a small number of customers who will need to service themselves, and they are willing to pay additional value for this, McGraw said, for example, by 2034, there might not be 100,000 real estate agents, perhaps only 5,000. But these people will be able to serve the customers who need to be personally and highly contacted. Creativity and the ability to think "the advice I can give young people is that they need constant learning to improve their cognitive and creative abilities so they can compete with the machines and keep their edge. "That's Osborne's advice, he is the co-author of the Oxford University study, he added," I may be biased, but in some special industries, such as the creative use of data, at least it can withstand a period of time, will not be quickly replaced at this stage. " "The key word here is creativity." If you're going into a career that requires a lot of work, such as accounting, legal work, civilian staff, and so on, your work will quickly be replaced by the computing process over time. But it's not that these jobs will be fully automated. For example, a self-service checkout system in a supermarket. This system may deal with most transactions, but when it doesn't recognize the product or crashes for a reason, you need to be there alone. Similarly, a software program may do well in dealing with tax rebates or legal documents, but a pair of human glasses is also necessary to watch the software, because these eyes can catch defects in the machine. But being creative and having a cognitive ability is totally different. In addition to preventing the robot from dying and needing people, Brynjofsson, the economy still needs people to come up with something new, or jump into the new field "and synthesize the information in a new way." In other words, choosing to create your own company will no longer be a gamble, but one of the more logical career choices. Leadership leadership is another skill that cannot be outsourced to computational programs. In Brynjolfsson's words, leadership means motivating others, persuading education, and caring. Tuck Rickards is another manager of Russell Reynolds Associates, who agrees that leadership will be a very big demand, but the needs of middle managers are small, and my gut tells me that the number of middle managers in large companies will drop, " Instead, Rickards thinks that CEOs of future companies may be more focused on each project than just running a company itself. Why is that so? jobs that previously required a large number of employees to complete, now because there are like cloud computing andTechnology such as automation does not require so many people. Rickards points out that such companies have emerged, such as the 700 million-dollar takeover of Instagram in 2012, when the company had only 13 employees. There are also Snapchat companies, which are reported to have been bought by Facebook at a price of 3 billion dollars, but the company has only 20 employees. Skilled and mobile skills in some areas, machines can do well, such as analyzing legal documents, but some work machines are not competent. These jobs, which cannot be replaced by machines, are those that must be done manually by human beings, which can be very simple, as easy as picking up a penny on the ground. It turns out that a lot of work is incredibly difficult for robots. So, like barbers, gardeners, cooks, and other Brynjolfsson, they don't have to worry about being replaced by machines. Long tail for some people, the standard advice is to start your career by choosing a career that you really love and then doing better than others. If you look at the vast automated job market of the 2034, economists will give the same advice. The job of a journalist is an absolute explanation for this phenomenon. Today, some computing programs can already organize basic news stories. But as Grossman said, you can't rely on computing programs to get news like Watergate. Of course, it also requires a high level of professionalism, not to mention persistence, to report on this type of explosive news. If you want to make a breakthrough, it's certainly not good to be lukewarm about your work, and it's important to pursue a job that makes you passionate, "says Brynjolfsson." "On the other hand, as we have seen the mediocre middle managers, their days will become more and more difficult." However, employees should also carefully consider the long tail. Now, Brynjolfsson says, the world's audiences like something different. "For example, if you're a journalist, you might want to look at some of the topics that seem to be mysterious, such as green energy technology, and so on." You won't be studying the Washington Post or The New York Times to cover some of the country's political news stories. The Feudal Empire 2.0. Work automation, less work, and this winner-all "society, all seems to herald that democracies are no longer necessary. In the 2013, the richest 85 people in the world had more wealth than the 3.5 billion people at the bottom of the world. 47% of the people claimed that the society was even conditioned to become the 2.0 version of the feudal empire. Despite this possibility, economists are more optimistic about this issue. For example, Osbrne predicts that although there are 47%Jobs will disappear, but they will be on top of some new jobs. "In the past hundreds of years, our society has undergone tremendous technological changes, but the corresponding unemployment rate has not increased," he said. "For example, in 20th century, the proportion of the population engaged in agriculture in the United States fell from 40% to less than 2% per cent, but even so, these jobs found new jobs in other industries, some of which were beyond the reach of the beginning of the last century." "Brynjolfsson is also a positive and optimistic attitude, and he notes that there are now too many false reports about people being controlled by technology." But it's actually the opposite, he said. I can see that people will be able to get more leisure time in the future, "Brynjolfsson said," in the 2034, poverty in the world will be eliminated, all of which are in the hands of mankind, "but he added, I found that there will still be more inequality in the future world. We need to change the dialogue mechanism to see what we really want, and what we have is more powerful than we can imagine. ”