What to do with the traditional and electric dealers

　　Ma and Wang 100 million Yuan Gamble, put the business community and the Internet are all flirting with excitement. "Horse on the gambling incident" let everyone over the eye addiction, but also let the electric business become more optimistic, as if unified Jiangshan have hope. On the contrary, the traditional retail practitioners are very worried, in the face of high rents, piles of inventory do not know how to do, is Chong net or stick to the tradition? In fact, offline brand products, or active or passive already appeared on the internet, so stick to the tradition is not another way.

First, the line under the advantages and disadvantages of online comparison

Ii. short-board, bottleneck and threat of electronic commerce

1. Offline is the bottleneck of the development of the line: The transaction is online, but production, logistics, etc. are offline, and even management is offline. These links do not follow, talk about what to replace? At present, like Taobao, Jingdong, Suning, etc. are in every possible way to construct their own ecological circle. The traditional retail ecological circle is already formed.

2. Taxation: Taxation of E-commerce transactions is a "Damocks sword" hanging over the head of the electricity business. At present, due to the need to redefine the jurisdiction of taxation, the complexity of tax collection and administration, the ambiguity of the target, our country has not taxed the electronic commerce. But this does not mean that the Government does not attach importance to, in fact, because the tax pressure throughout the year continued to increase, the local government has long been salivating over the swan meat three times. A short time ago in Wuhan, an online shop was issued the national "first tax", and in Hangzhou, Alibaba Global Network conference, MA has said: "It is not clear when the state of the net shop tax, but the network business to be ready at all times." When the shop began to tax, this is not in the hands of Taobao. Taobao can do is to work together with the network, the tax time and amount appropriate to relax. Although the current state does not collect taxes, the net business should also put the tax aside, not paying taxes is only a reward, dividend.

Look at the situation abroad: Japan will tax the applications, E-books, music and other online content that Japanese foreign companies sell in Japan, with a 2014 tax rate of 8% and 2015 to 10%; 2008 New York passed a law forcing Amazon to levy a sales tax, followed by U.S. states. Amazon, which for years and state governments have been resistant to "levy", will begin a sales tax in California, Texas State and Pennsylvania State, after negotiations with lawmakers this year. This gives Amazon a real-store price advantage from the past 11% down to 5-6%!

3. Anti-Monopoly law: Under the Antimonopoly Act, if the operator's share of the relevant market reaches One-second, it is presumed to have a dominant market position. Taobao Cat 2012 Q3 Market share in the market for 75.5% (easy to view data). This is the "Damocks sword" hanging on the horse's cloud, when will this sword burst? Will the government use the sword? Does the trader of Taobao platform often use it? (2011 Because Taobao changes the rules caused by the "anti-Taobao alliance" incident, there have been many legal people recommend Taobao merchants Use this sword). And Ma Yun to do is reasonable use of the "relevant market" rule using "no shadow foot" flash maneuver.

Iii. where is the crisis of traditional retailing?

Since the beginning of last year, traditional retailing seems to be a crisis, a huge inventory pressure, the increase in human costs, the persistent closing tide ... Every time I have a meeting with a traditional retail friend, I am sure to ask about other retail and online sales figures, so many people have no bottom line. In general, traditional retailing will also encounter the following problems in a short period of time:

1. The rent continues to rise: The two-year retail store rents basically can be said to roll up, rose one. This is the direct reason for the closing of retail shops. The net closing rate of several sports brands this year is as high as percent, while the closed shops are mostly 07-08 years of the Beijing Olympic Games, the 3-5-year contract period, to be renewed by 2010, and the new rent is basically doubled, the operator naturally only close stops.

2. Human costs continue to rise: These two years, the average price of shop staff increase is higher than the office staff. On the one hand, the shop staff wages increased sharply, on the other hand, the staff turnover rate is very high (according to personal observation of clothing enterprises shop staff turnover rate this year generally up to add, very scary). Some companies have begun to use headhunters to recruit grass-roots jobs, and some companies have sunk to the county and even rural groups to recruit, and then focus on training. The main reason for this phenomenon is that 80, the two groups of the age of the working population is declining.

3. Rigid mindset: Many traditional retail managers have never been concerned with the same-store growth this year, and they are more concerned about the overall growth of new stores. From the garment industry, because the whole industry is a futures system, goods to buy at least six months in advance, and the new store has been slow to open, the old shop sales are also declining (the 2012 apparel industry is expected to decline in the same D.), inventories naturally accumulate larger, vicious circle. So the emergency "Chong Power", the electrical business Channel became the line under the inventory of the sewer, so we found in 2012 a variety of price disorder (online retail prices less than the price below the line of delivery), a variety of channel chaos (join the uprising, forced Palace brand); There are also a number of traditional retail bosses out of the line to join the protection of the female test, blocked online sales, the results can be imagined.

4. E-commerce Force Palace: All electric dealers in the line to shout, we are the future, we have price advantage. Starting from the Singles Day of 2011, Taobao's street signs are directly around Carrefour, Wal-Mart and other stores.

In fact, the traditional retail operators you do not have to panic, the current offline most of the problems under the line itself, the impact of the line is still within the controllable range. For you, "Chong Net" is necessary, the sooner the better, of course, tuition fees must be paid. There are a lot of stones on the internet, you can touch the river.

Iv. is it a matter of sooner or later that electronic commerce replaces traditional retailing?

If you ask the electric dealer about this question, the answer must be yes. In particular, Taobao singles 19.1 billion records after the birth of a lot of people on the line do not take it seriously. I've been asked this question countless times by the bosses who are offline. My answer is: if purely from a technical point of view, the store to replace the line is sooner or later, because the electricity business represents advanced productivity. From this perspective, of course, the future may also have another model to replace the electrical business. But I think this is actually a social problem. Imagine what would happen if the electricity trader took over 50% of the retail sector as a whole. Substantial shops will collapse, resulting in a large number of unemployed people, commercial property prices plunged ... Every problem is a headache for the government. Therefore, the administrative intervention must intervene. I have no eye, I can not answer whether will be replaced the question, just feel that we can not only from the technical level to think about the problem. Of course the line gradually eats up the share under the line this trend is unlikely to change in the short term, and there must be a head. Guoqing said the head was 10%.

V. Integration is the eternal theme of traditional retailing and electronic commerce

The future of retail is a broad concept, no shop sales have already been one of the retail standard business. In the early days, there were no shop sales, such as mail order, direct selling and TV shopping. In recent years the emergence of E-commerce gradually become a faction, in fact, there is no shop sales. Whether the electric business or the traditional retail is the category of retail, their integration is a major trend. This integration will be reflected in the integration of channels, price integration, management integration, the integration of social resources and so on several aspects. The future of the entire channel must be line online is the entire channel, the price difference will not be as big as today, management talent will be online offline without any difference flow. Traditional retailing has launched online business, E-commerce is also beginning to listen to the traditional retail voice. So less talk of substitution, more talk about integration more practical.

Finally, say Wang Ma gamble, gambling is meaningless and will violate the law, this is just a strategy of both sides. If it is a real gamble, the criteria are difficult to define. Does online retailing account for 50% of total retail sales (online retail plus traditional retail) or just 50% of traditional retail sales compared to the total retail sales of consumer goods (2011 to 18.4 trillion)? Or is it just a comparison to the retail sale (not finding the exact data, It is estimated that 2011 this data is about 6 trillion, is expected to reach 10 trillion in 2015? "e-commerce Twelve-Five Development Plan", to 2015 E-commerce transactions between the scale will be more than 15 trillion yuan, network retail turnover exceeded 3 trillion yuan.

Everyone is in the next big game! And you and I are pawns!