Windsor Capital Partner Jianyi: TMT or will "go hazy beauty"

Recently, the U.S. stocks in the stock market ushered in a wave of plunge.

Indeed, since last November, a number of institutions have been warning about the risk of adjustment to the US stock market. This wave of collapse, most of the reasons have been commonplace, including QE3 exit expectations, the long-term rise of the bubble, Alibaba on other shares of the blood pumping effect, and other factors.

October 16, Windsor Capital partner Jianyi received an interview with the 21st century economic reporter, said that in the bullish bull sentiment under the inertia of the market has been in the doubt Ali draw blood and other adverse factors, many of the problems involved in market regularity, but also basically ignored. "This actually has the power of the trend, and in the past two years as a result of investment in the stock of the individual investors surge, so that the entire U.S. stocks in the small plate has been too much of the past relatively rare stock speculation path, the market is relatively lack of some coverage of the authoritative industry research institutions." Jianyi told reporters.

In this year's U.S. stock market, the TMT sector is the best in the field, including electricity, mobile concept of the only products, Poly-mei excellent products, Cheetah Mobile and Sky network, etc., are in the forefront of stocks. And with this wave of correction, will the future of stocks to a freezing point? How many shares in the TMT field can continue to bear the "City Dream rate"?

In this regard, Jianyi that after such a rapid market correction, the market will be the last wave of good gains in the stock began to be cautious, and the TMT sector has been the "hazy beauty" will pass. "In such a market environment, we have to find real in the construction of core competitive value of the TMT company, Windsor not only to do reverse investment, will also buy some real growth of the industry brand quality companies." The only difference is that we will patiently wait for a good price we recognize. Jianyi told reporters.

Windsor Capital is a medium-scale new asset management company which is mainly supplemented by early investment in the market hedging of stock two. Windsor Capital's flagship fund, the cumulative annual income of over 7 years has reached 26.7%. In July this year, Windsor Capital has issued its first sunshine private products in a shares, while Jianyi revealed that Windsor Capital will also issue a theme strategy fund at the end of this year: The market capitalisation Management fund of the medium-and-small plate.

TMT "Hazy Beauty" or will pass

"21st century": The biggest increase this year is the TMT area, after this round of correction, the future in this area of the stock trend?

Jianyi: Trees can't grow to the sky. The market has a timeless law, today, when those plates or companies are popular in the market and the city dream rate, the future will certainly return to the market. There are generally two ways to repay this: a slump or a prolonged slump.

For investors, whether it is a primary market or a two-tier market, the TMT industry's profit-making effect has been attracting new funds and investors to join, and so far last year, has begun to show the characteristics of staged bubbles. And each bubble burst is from the two-tier market began to conduction back to the first market, so that a high level of market enthusiasm cooling, this is happening now. My personal view is that the TMT market is already a Red sea in both the entrepreneurial and investment markets.

Standing in the two-tier market perspective, the current stock is to take the main wave of the process, but also TMT field to "Hazy beauty" stage. As the tide receded, we looked more cautiously at this wave of IPO shares, using a "magnifying glass" to see the company's shortcomings, and we look for the next 2-3 years and still have a high growth potential in the target.

"21st century": Electricity quotient, mobile and other concepts before the rise has been very large, how do you think?

Jianyi: From the company level, the electric business company actually has a lot of opaque things. The electric dealer has a strong logic that cannot be falsified, and it is imposed by a first-tier market. The strong logic is that China is a huge, infinitely large commercial market, and they believe that the industry will in the future be similar to bat monopoly mode, that is, the first few companies can eat most of the market share.

I am more cautious about this strong logic of wishful thinking. Now there are so many listed companies in China (mainly in a and Hong Kong), they add up to a market value of more than 100 billion U.S. dollars, and most of the company's realisable assets close to or exceed their market value, they can not quickly enter the electricity market and occupy a share? Of course, a lot of people say that gene this thing, not money can buy, I think is, this is the Internet industry practitioners and related investors "industry narcissism."

Some of the company's stock prices have risen sharply, which is actually part of the company's development strategy, borrowing the listed company's financing platform, constantly financing, speculation high stock prices, and then continue to issue and issuance of debt, it is indeed a capital-intensive company's development model of the Electric Company. Some electric companies show a good profit, but they need to look at these companies carefully.

The market dream rates that these companies had previously had left more room for the two-tier markets to fall in the future. And U.S. stocks are an effective market, more space can be fierce game, such as some very high price of electric companies, the future is not "hazy beauty" and qualitative to see such companies, but will use a "magnifying glass" to look at these companies a variety of operational data, quantitative analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of these companies.

"21st century": what will be the mentality of the future market?

Jianyi: It's nice to have a slightly frothy market and a little premium for a company, but there must be a reason for the premium. such as team, model and brand, excellent and transparent corporate governance. I think the market should do more of these to make premium "price in" companies.

Stock in the process of decline, the market sentiment is generally from overly optimistic, infatuated with superstition, to fall feeling confused, prudent, once into the main market will start to become calm, objective, after the objective began to be harsh. Like now everyone to see the A-share market real estate stocks and banking stocks, no matter how good your performance, I do not care about you. Stock expectations are very important, when you look at your time to give you 100 times times the city dream rate, not optimistic about your time to the end may be directly to the PB. But also to see a company's major shareholders or the actual control of the moral hazard of people, not reliable to make a discount.

Is the freezing point in the stock?

21st Century: What is the capital level factor before the rally?

Jianyi: At the moment, we find that the SEC has just filed a private equity fund that is 10 times times the size of private-equity investment funds. Over the past few years in China's investment sector, the first-tier market energy and the right to speak vividly. In the past two or three years, China's private equity investment funds have entered a very crazy growth process, too many people give the money to VC and PE, and VC and PE candidate projects the most optimistic and the most investment in the industry is TMT, helped push the stock of stocks in stocks, because they are most likely to produce a logical alignment of the plate.

The level one or two market capital is seriously upside down, more money in the first market, to the final level of the market to achieve exit, will continue to use the city dream rate to send the company into the two-tier market, TMT's bubble has always been so, is generally a primary market to the two-tier market conduction, and then in the two-tier market strengthening.

"21st century": What do you think of the next trend of the stock market?

Jianyi: The freezing point of the stock is not yet. In the run-up to the rally, the U.S. stock financing buy plate accounted for the entire trading plate of 70%. And a shares of the current financing buy plate is 20%. So you know how many people in the U.S. stock market are borrowing money to buy stocks.

Once the market downward brake, originally said will produce "Davis double Kill" effect (kill liquidity, kill valuation). Such a large financing plate, there will be a lot of cuts in the future, stops, these things once they come out, really panic.

The U.S. stock market has been almost no more than the current obvious speculation, now the U.S. stock speculation on the new shares have been compared to a. As soon as they go public, these companies turn one or two times times. So if the market falls, first of all, first kill to the issue price, if the company itself is not reliable, pricing itself on the high valuation, coupled with the market inside the buyers have bought, share prices down the space opened.

"21st century": When is the freezing point coming?

Jianyi: The arrival of freezing point will certainly have a lot of negative news to cooperate. As the market is more cautious, so many of the problems of listed companies will be seen, many companies are also likely to face performance, with the original expected gap is very large, these things may be Q3, but also to see the results of the report. The market sentiment reaches the freezing point one characteristic is, to the listed company's continuously sends the positive indifference, many has the investment value the company to be forgotten in the corner by the market.

The investment logic of China stock

"21st century": What is the logic of your next investment?

Jianyi: There are still some good marks in the market now. Our small and Medium-sized market value Management Fund is looking for some companies with relatively small market capitalisation, they have been neglected for some reason, but the company's fundamentals are good, in addition to the industry is still in the lead, and even some companies are still a record of profits. We help these companies to carry out value revaluation and value reengineering, and can fully use the financing function of the whole market to develop the enterprise to a new level.

In addition to the financing function, if the stock is active, the morale of a company is very strong, the team morale of the small and medium-sized listed companies is very important, the stock in the two market can be renewed by public attention and talk, which has a brand effect. In addition, if the excessively undervalued share price can return to the reasonable value range, the whole listed company will have many incentives, can retain and attract more talent. There are a lot of these companies in the market, and some companies with small subdivisions are now valued at 100 million or 200 million to 200 million or 300 million dollars.

But if that doesn't change, the forgotten and cool listed companies feel that Wall Street has given up on me and I have given up on you, and that the VIE structure makes all the money in the hands of big shareholders, and it doesn't matter if the price is low. These so-called "zombie shares" will feel that, since Wall Street abandoned me, then all of my company's performance or benefits are not reflected in the listed company entities, hidden profits, and then on the vicious circle, no one, especially the capital to promote them.

From the perspective of investment, these companies are also very cheap, but also has theoretical investment value. From a profit point of view, it is hard to say that it will be effective in the short term. But I think the problem is not very big, because the investment of unpopular stocks or small and medium-sized market plate, is what we have been good at doing in the past seven or eight years, this is still not with the listed companies have too much co-operation. If there is co-operation, it may not be a long time before the performance can be reflected. There's a lot of technical stuff.

For us these value investors generally will be in the market down, their own bullish stocks can buy more, the original actually optimistic but always feel that expensive company also has the opportunity.

21st Century: What do you think of your early investments after this slump?

Jianyi: In the early stage of investment, product-oriented companies, we will be more or less concerned about whether innovative products can be used to create value for users to precipitate users, adhere to the user; Business model innovation, we value the team's industry background, executive power and the agreement with the project, Whether it will improve the business efficiency of the relevant industry because of this new model innovation.

Early investment will still have some good teams or companies that are leackage by capital. At the very least, the price can be talked about, because after we calm down, after a round of bubble baptism, we can see which teams are better, which projects and products more business prospects, and in the market relative downturn in the process, everyone's expectations will not be as high as before. Tide back, when many investment institutions are not radical or dare to act, we may be "timely", decisive shot, which should also be regarded as a reverse investment.