The ecological chain of computer industry

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1. Moore's theorem

From Intel's founder: Gordon Moore

Content: Every 18 months, the performance of the computer and other IT products will double, or the same performance of the computer and other it new products, the price will fall by half every 18 months

2. Andy-Bill theorem

Because of the Moore theorem, if you follow this theorem, the days of hardware vendors are sad, because people have no new incentive to buy and update hardware devices.

The fact is that people have enough power to buy and update hardware, which is the role of Andy Bill's theorem.

Content: Bill wants to take Andy's offer.

Andy Grove, the former CEO of Intel Corporation, is Andy.

Bill, Bill Gates of Microsoft.

Principle:

Because even the same functionality of software, today's more than yesterday's occupation of hardware resources is an unavoidable thing.

Because a variety of programming languages are becoming more usable, but at the same time less efficient.

Although the user is very annoying new software to bring the benefits of hardware upgrade almost all used up, but in the IT field, each hardware vendor is precisely relying on software developers to use their own hardware resources to survive, software-driven hardware upgrades

Of course, Microsoft and other software developers eat most of the hardware to improve the benefits, more or less will bring some new things to the user

The entire ecosystem of the PC industry is like this:

Microsoft-led software developers ate the full benefits of hardware upgrades, forcing users to update their machines so that companies such as Hewlett-Packard and Dell would benefit, and the machine makers would order new chips from semiconductor manufacturers such as Intel and purchase new peripherals from Seagate and other peripheral manufacturers. In the midst of this, the profits of each family have been correspondingly improved, and the stock has grown. Each hardware semiconductor and peripheral company then put the profit into the research and development, according to Moore theorem set speed, improve hardware performance, for Microsoft Next update software, eat hardware performance to prepare. Wall Street investors know that if Microsoft is developing slower than expected and the software is performing poorly, it must not buy shares in companies such as Intel.

On the positive side, Andy Bill's theorem has turned electronics, such as consumer durables, into expendable goods, stimulating the development of the entire IT landscape.

3. Anti-Moore theorem

Google's CEO Eric Schmidt said in an interview that if you look at Moore's theorem in turn, an IT company will cut its turnover by half if it sells the same number of products today and 18 months ago. It is called the inverse Moore theorem .

Anti-Moore theorem is very sad for all IT companies, because an IT company spends the same labor, but only gets half the income of the previous one.

The inverse Moore theorem forces all hardware companies to catch up with the update speed specified by Moore's theorem, so in fact, all hardware and equipment manufacturers live very hard. Also shows that hardware-based companies because of the impact of anti-Moore theorem, livelihood difficult.

On the positive side, it contributes to the qualitative progress in the field of science and technology, and provides the possibility of survival and development for emerging companies.

As with the development of all things, there are two kinds of technological progress in it field, which are quantitative and qualitative:

1. For example: the same processor in the system structure is not much change, but only the frequency improvement, this progress is the progress of quantitative changes

2. When the processor from 16 to 32, and then 64 bits, there is a small qualitative change, if the future application of nanotechnology or biotechnology, it will be a qualitative leap

In order to catch up with the development speed of Moore theorem prediction, light depends on quantitative change is not enough, each technology, not many years, the potential of quantitative change will be excavated light, then must have a revolutionary creation of the Birth of Invention

The new small company competes with the existing big company, the light competition quantity is not advantageous, because the existing big company has the formidable technology accumulation, can quickly realize the surpassing with the low cost superiority. so only through a revolutionary qualitative change can survive, and even subversion. This is like the woodworking-born Nokia and Motorola in the traditional communication field of battle.

The anti-Moore theorem makes it impossible for the IT industry to pursue only quantitative change, as in the oil industry or the aircraft industry, and must constantly look for revolutionary creative inventions, because any company that is not able to develop a technology that does not catch Moore's theorem will be eliminated in a few years.

Big companies, in addition to maintaining a high level of research and development, should always pay attention to the development of new technologies around them, and often acquire small companies with revolutionary new technologies. Typical is Cisco

Anti-Moore theorem at the same time the emerging small companies are likely to be at the same starting line as big companies in developing new technologies. If small companies succeed, they can be acquired by big companies like Amati, and even they may replace the position of the original big companies in their respective fields, as the communications chip design, Broadcom and Marvell replace the original Lucent semiconductor sector, Even Intel's business in the appropriate field

Derived from the inverse Moore theorem: venture capital mechanism, option system

Venture capital mechanism:

Some investors who are willing to take the risk and pursue high returns will put their money together and hand it over to the professionals who know how to manage their finances and know the technology, and invest them in promising companies and individuals, which has gradually formed the American venture capital mechanism.

Option system:

Good one high-tech companies also need professionals who are both like-minded and willing to take risks, who are more interested in having a company than a relatively high salary, and therefore have an option system for high-tech company employees.

PS: Read summary from Dr. Wu's "Top of the Wave", fourth: the ecological chain of computer industry

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The ecological chain of computer industry