2020 7 Nanometer Process: The terminus of Moore's Law

"Sohu It News" August 28 news, the U.S. Department of Defense Advanced Research Projects Bureau of the Office of Micro-systems technology, Robert Colwell, said that the end of Moore's law is not only a huge impact on the physical world, the impact on the economy is great. Crowell Crowell said: "I think it's time to plan for the end of Moore's law, not just to think about when it ends, but also to think about why it ended." "In Monday, Crowell a speech at Stanford University with the theme" Moore's Law of Chip design game will end ". "For companies such as Intel, the chip business is quite expensive and these companies are going to have huge sums of money to develop next-generation chip technology," Crowell said in an interview. "How expensive is it?" GlobalFoundries recently spent 6 billion of billions of dollars on factories in northern New York, and new research and development facilities will be completed by the end of 2014, adding it to a total of 8 billion dollars. Moore's law, proposed by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore, means that when the price is constant, the number of transistors that can be accommodated on an integrated circuit increases by one times every 18 months, and performance is increased by one fold. In other words, every dollar will be able to buy the performance of the computer, each 18 months over twice. Here are some of Crowell's ideas: "Building a fab factory costs too much, and more importantly ... Companies are paying huge sums of money to teams that design new chips. Intel makes such investments at a cost of billions of dollars, as it expects to reap more profits in the next few years. But if companies are skeptical about doubling profits, they will not be thinking about investing if they doubt the necessary chip technology improvements. If such a decision is made by a mainstream chip company like Intel, it would mean ending Moore's law, because many different companies would then cut back on investment, which would provide an expensive tool for chip production, leading to the end of Moore's law. "I think most techniques will rationally consider the end of Moore's law." But they focus only on the physical aspects of the impact, focusing on the changes from one chip process to another process. These technologies clearly know the significance of entering the 7 nm process, and they naturally assume that the next generation of chip-making technology will encounter insurmountable problems, thus ending Moore's law. This is the right thing to do, and there have been huge challenges in the past, but the chip industry has been able to repel them; My view is that it may or may not be, but physics is not the only challenge. I value economic challenges, and Moore's law can only last if it succeeds in both physics and economics. "The U.S. Department of Defense Advanced Research Projects Bureau that 2020, 7 NM will be the final process of the chip node." Crowell added that the chip industry is expected to spend a great amount of time pushing the 5 nm process, although 5 NM may not have much advantage over 7 nm, but will postpone Moore's law of the initial end to 2022。 Intel is already discussing the business of 10 nanotechnology and is expected to start scheduling in 2015. Intel scientists have also said it was unclear what technology was used after 7 nm. Currently, the Intel Ivy Bridge and Haswell processors are 22 nm process.