A-share rebound into the "transition period"

-Our correspondent He Huihong analysts believe that if the market rebound into the correction phase and normal operation phase, then the first phase believe that has been over, and the second phase still need to wait for the fundamentals of further tamping, the market is in these two stages between the "transition stage."　　Key point: The main factor that the risk appetite affects the market rebound space at present should be investor's risk preference. Examine the four main indicators of risk appetite: turnover, change of hand rate, cyclical industry yield and 10-year bond yield and 1-year bond yield difference. Recently, the market has been creating new highs, but the volume has not synchronized amplification, and a number of shares of the turnover rate is also low, especially the subject stock. In addition, the cyclical industry's recent decline in yields, such as the real estate industry after nearly two weeks of rebound, the nearly two trading days have gone soft, and the non-ferrous plate is only in the United States weakened against the backdrop of the short-lived.　　The only thing that hasn't changed much is the difference between the 10-year bond yield and the 1-year yield, which is still at a low level, showing that money is still on the sidelines but not completely off the ground. The factors that influence risk preference are mainly from the restart of capital market financing function, the lack of profit-making effect and the high structural valuation. In the recent market, whether small and medium-sized retail investors or a large investor is a reflection of the difficulty in increasing money. According to the latest estimates of the research institutions, Hu and Chengzhi pe valuations reached nearly 28 times times and 34 times times the level, the city net rate is also 3-4 times the level of horizontal international comparison and vertical history is not low.　　On the other hand, the resumption of IPO also brings some psychological shock to the investors, which leads to a slight decrease in the market overall risk appetite in the near future. Support point: The core of blue-chip in many subject stocks peak, finance, real estate and other core blue chip to become the support point of the market. From the banking perspective, the investment logic behind it is two: first, spreads to the bottom, and the other is the depression effect of selling value. The previous factor has been agreed by the industry, while the latter is obvious. From the real estate, as the pillar industry and the largest consumer goods, the rise and fall of real estate to a considerable extent affect the economic prospects, real estate investment logic also comes from two indicators: first, the situation of land market, the second is turnover.　　From the former point of view, "King" frequency, the land market is becoming popular, and from the latter, the first half of this year even better than the beginning of 07. However, not two core plates are not flawed.　　Judging from the banking sector, first, spreads have bottomed out, but if the dollar's rise leads to a fall in inflation expectations, low interest rates could last for some time to better facilitate economic recovery, and second, the continued surge in bank stocks will fill its valuation depressions if the recovery is repeated. From the real estate sector, turnover is often the result of the game between house price and investor income, house price rises too fast, turnover may be lower, the recent housing turnover in Shenzhen has begun to decline. From the land deal, too high to takeCost will also weaken the profitability of real estate developers, while the formation of a certain extrusion effect on the virtual capital. Basic point: Recovery path The market cannot deviate from the fundamentals too far, from the recent data released, the economic bottom has gradually become clear. From the external demand, China's exports continue to decline year-on-year, but the chain of increase, from the trend of the trade situation is expected to improve: After the seasonally adjusted on the average on the working day, exports in May compared to April year-on-year increase of 0.2%, May PMI index in the new export order index also rose to the expansion range, indicating that the export situation began to stabilise.　　At the same time, the overseas market economic slowdown further slowed, the OECD composite leading indicators fell narrow, the national PMI index also rebounded. From the investment growth rate, China's 1-May urban fixed asset investment growth of 32.9%, May growth of 38.7%, compared with the last month's 4.7% increase, more than expected. May, real estate development investment growth of 12%, non real estate investment growth of 46%. Considering the price factor, real investment grew by more than 40% in May, 25% higher than the same period last year.　　Analysts believe that investment will continue to maintain a high rate of growth: first, because the new project planned investment growth continued to improve; second, the real estate market rebound to stimulate real estate investment rebounded; third, some areas open up, conducive to private capital entry, which will lead to a sustained high investment in tertiary industry growth. Finally, from domestic demand, May CPI and PPI still fell year-on-year, but given last year's warping factors, chain data and some grassroots survey data, the price level is coming out of the bottom, this is the harbinger of domestic demand recovery. The real economy "troika" has been slowly moving, but the progress of the process will be numerous and complex, still need to be further observed.