Blue-chip push the market to accelerate the top beware of stock risk

Darbond Securities last week we made it clear that changes in the style of the market would benefit the index, but the structural risks would increase. Last week in a number of stocks down the same time the big blue chip became the main power of the index uplink. From the industry index it is more obvious that in the 13 industry indices, in addition to the extractive industry (coal, oil and ore) index, real Estate index and composite index rose 5.46%, 1.46% and 1.64% respectively stronger than the broader market, the other 10 indexes were weaker than the market, while the IT index fell 2.77% the biggest decline. And in the last week, the market index rose at the same time the industry appeared 7 down 6 rose situation, so the structural risk of the industry continued to deepen the situation, and the large-weight blue chips on the index up the role of the promotion is obvious. At present, although the market to maintain strong, but last week, the contraction of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, the short-term index may be sorted out, and we insist that the fundamentals to support the continued rise in the market factors gradually disappear, the market strength stems from funds and policies of strong support, and the market once the obvious negative, The timing and space of the market may be more than expected, so index investors still need to keep a wary eye on it, especially since last week's decline was much lower and so was the case. Last week, the Shanghai small rose 19.61 points, a margin of only 0.75%, turnover of 669.9 billion yuan, compared to 796 billion yuan in the previous week to reduce 13.1%, the same period, Shenzhen rose 90.17 points, Rose 0.89%, turnover of 354.1 billion yuan, compared to 414.9 billion in the previous week 15%. The shrinkage stagnation shows that the short-term adjustment probability increases. We insist that the main impetus for this round of rebound comes from policies and funds, while fundamentals may disappear as the market rises. Last week's policy was a positive one week after the policies of the obvious slowdown, but the macro-economic data is not obvious bad, but the lack of evidence of the reversal of the fundamentals of the economy. So the market is still just a big rebound from the plunge last year. At the same time we need to maintain the meso-industry and micro-enterprises continue to decline the profit judgment, so even if the large blue chip to maintain a certain strength, but the industry seriously differentiated structural risk will be released.　　Continue to advise attention to the market opportunities of blue-chip, especially financial real estate, while maintaining appropriate positions to prevent the risk of adjustment. A number of economic data released last week suggest that the rebound in China's economic bottom may be drawing to a close: from the price index, although the current CPI (-1.5%) and PPI (-6%) are still negative, but the main reason is that the tail factor in the first half of 08 because of the snowstorm and a big jump back to a negative, Quarter-on-quarter growth remained positive for the first half of the year (0.7%). The monetary policy of the central bank will remain loose in the short term, and will continue to push the market upward, but the second half may tighten up again. While investment data continue to climb, the current cumulative growth rate of up to 30.5%, has reached the first half of the 2004 overheating level, and the year-on-year growth of exports in a short period of stabilisation again after a sharp decline: April export growth rate than March fell 5.5%. We anticipateFuture export growth could accelerate and lead to a trade deficit in the three quarter. Overall, because the investment upside space is limited, the consumption is basically stable and the future of export is not optimistic, we think the performance of China's economy in the third quarter will be worse than the two quarter. From all the listed 1602 listed companies first quarter results, although the chain growth of 445%, but the year-on-year decline of 25%, and the chain is only because the base of the four seasons last year very small reason. The second quarter of the chain data may still remain small growth, but the three quarter is likely to face greater downward pressure. Overall, the current market rally has overdrawn the one or two quarter of the company's performance on the chain, and the future may be due to the economic trend of the re-emergence of a larger correction.　　We believe that the market in late May to early June to build the medium-term top of the probability of greater, and the late market is mainly driven by blue-chip market, the structure of the changes will become increasingly obvious. From a purely technical point of view, the broader market is likely to strengthen the collective weight of the group long and the trend of continuous shocks. But in the short term, the market's shrinking stagnation shows that the market may have to be recalled after a sustained rise, while the strength of the petrochemical, real estate, coal and other weights may keep the overall strength of the market, so this week is likely to be a strong callback trend. First of all, the market accounted for more than 80% of the weight of a small number of 10% of large stocks, most stocks fell a small number of stocks rose after the market index is still showing a trend of rising market stocks become the main force. Market stocks in the financial industry last week has been the first collation, petrochemical, real estate and coal, although the strength is still strong, but the short-term rise may lead to a certain collation, the weight of the market in the rotation may lead to the overall market appears to fall. But the market strength may not be changed for the time being. Second, the market appears to shrink the stagnation of the investment mentality tends to cautious. And last week, a lot less than the plate features reflect the market continues to hit the high point of cautious mentality, but the strong weight of the market has led to the strength of various technical indicators: MACD still maintain a strong, MACD indicators are still in the 0 axis above and short-term and medium-term indicators continue to maintain a long trend; Even in the short run the Dead fork, but both are running in the strong area near 1.5, so does not affect the pattern of strong operation. In addition from the KDJ and RSI look, the week before the two back to a strong operating zone, the last week both long, medium and short technical indicators to maintain a strong. Finally, the EMA is still in a long array, 5th 10th, 20th all of the upward divergence trend, last week's substantial shrinkage finishing although may lead to a certain adjustment this week, but the extent of adjustment may be limited, especially after the blue-chip plate finishing after the market index is likely to be again in the large weight stocks under the guidance of the selection of upward. Once the volume is enlarged, it may lead to a continuation of the trend. Therefore, the comprehensive technical analysis, we think that the short-term adjustment of the week, but the strength of the characteristics may be maintained, especially the market-weighted stocks have become the dominant power after the force is more so。 Future industries and stocks continue to differentiate, it is recommended that investors focus on the large blue chip weight shares.