Cao June: An analysis of the development trend of mobile Internet

November 6, 2012-7th, the seventh annual Iris Summit in Shanghai Kerry Center Hotel Grand opening curtain. The meeting is the 10 anniversary of the establishment of the Advisory Group, after Beijing, Guangzhou, the year after another industry event. With the theme of "Embracing change", the summit focuses on the change and innovation of the Big Data age, focuses on the trend of the new economy, analyzes the successful experience of network marketing in the past 15 years, and closely tracks the developing trend in the field of mobile Internet.

The following is a transcript of the speech "Analysis of Mobile Internet Trends" published by Cao, dean of the research group

(pictured by Cao, dean of the research Group)

Cao: Dear friends, Good afternoon! I'm very glad to see you all come to Eric's annual meeting. Eric's annual meeting began in 2006 and has been held until now.

Eric has been constantly observing the Internet industry, interpretation and analysis, we also call China's Internet is called the New Economy (310358, fund bar), China's internet has been 15 years, Eric has 10 years, now to speak of the new economy, I believe it represents a new wave of the Internet, At present, the Internet has reached a new stage of development to 15 years. Again, if you want to say to the new trends in China's Internet, as well as new changes, to interpret words, there is no doubt that the current mobile internet. Today we share some of the views and trends of interpretation, the core focus on the mobile internet. Afterwards, will introduce the entire network economy pattern, each subdivision profession inside some main trend and its characteristic.

Mobile Internet, today's forum in fact, there are many guests and friends, from the mobile Internet to continue to explore, or to say entrepreneurship, and engaged in the industry in the elite, we also continue to observe and analyze the industry, mobile internet three years ago, we all say is a trend, Now it's really becoming the mainstream of the entire Internet.

Globally, the flow of the entire mobile internet has reached 17.8% in Asia. This is mainly due to Japan and South Korea relatively high rate of flow, pulling the trend across Asia.

Specific to the enterprise, we can find that, like google30%, domestic Baidu mobile traffic around 25%, Sina Weibo 40% of users are pure mobile end, 30% overlap, Micro bo 70% should be mobile users. Not to mention micro-letters and so on. The overall mobility of the Internet from the global average level or the world's core enterprises, there is no doubt that has occupied or close to the mainstream ratio. Well-deserved now is the mobile internet age.

In this new transition period, we have also revolutionized research methods and research products, based on iOS and Android Smart terminals we conducted sample monitoring of more than 30,000 samples. Yesterday released the latest data on the Internet in the United States and around the world, Android is 6 times times the volume of iOS shipments. In China also observed the strong trend of the entire mobile Internet, based on sample analysis, the last 5673 months, the average daily use of intelligent terminals, the growth rate in the month-on-month growth rate is more than 20% per month. Of course, this sample is based on iOS (25%) and Android (75%).

We also observed that another strong trend is the monthly use of app per capita in July, with an average of 20 apps per person each month in China. Of these 20, the first-ranked category is the game four. The second place is the shopping class, the business class. Then there is information, life, information, including social, security, and other tools of use. It also shows that the current activity of the app and the core of your main use comes from entertainment, another display is for business, the application and use of O2O, is different from the PC Internet development phase, since the PC Internet, starting from 2001, everyone still from the information, starting from the game, Business is 2006 years from 2005 to gradually break out, but in mobile internet discovery, is basically concurrent in a situation.

It is observed that smartphone users use intelligent terminals, the effective use of 1 hours a day 36 minutes, of which 71% of the time, using a variety of apps applications, less than 30% of the time is used to call and voice. This 70% of the time, we can see that 54% is from the download application, 14% is the official with the application, that is, the application of download class, basically occupy the intelligent end user mobile Internet when the largest piece inside. The use of time and see, Monthly, quarter-on-quarter growth of 20%, mobile internet This trend can be thought of how strong. If this year's smartphone shipments are 250 million, so such a data, and mobile internet users of the data, mobile internet users in the first half of 538 million, the second half certainly more than 400 million, the overall first half of the Internet users 538 million, nearly 70, 80% of the netizens are using the Internet.

In this respect, we have very clearly recognized that the era of mobile internet, has gradually dominated the entire Internet traffic and the user's time. Internet companies, various enterprises in the user volume is also a positive layout.

Two strategies three characteristics, core systems company, basically target type, platform, the other one is content is applied. Do platform can see, basically PC's traditional giant. Specific layout features can be seen, the first 1th, or the entrance type, the entry type is basically military battleground, each road enterprises are here to buy their own products. The second PC core product translates, including many of the giant's core PC Internet applications, gradually moving to the mobile internet. Third, the special services and applications of mobile Internet, based on the cross screen, mobility, multiple terminals, innovative on the cloud aspects of some applications and services, but also in a vigorous push.

These three points, and these two strategies, can be seen, basically still layout-type, the flow of further grasp. The list was not released just now. As you can see, the top ten of Android and iOS downloads are largely dominated by this type of giant company. Another feature is the flow of traffic, while the use of habits also went up, but a common problem for all of the enterprises is the mobile flow of the cash, iris every quarter will be counted mobile internet business income. Year-on-year growth of 100% per quarter this should be a good result, but its base is very small, a quarter has just broken 10 billion, the 10 billion of real revenue from the mobile internet is less than half. Because 66.6% from the traditional SP business, based on mobile phone-side equipment services. From mobile ads, mobile operators, mobile games accounted for less than 50%. That's why Facebook, Google, including domestic companies, is a bit of a headache, and the base of these flows is small, and a good way to do so is not yet found. This is also the core cause of the Facebook development of the IPO outright. Mobile phone 3, 4-inch screen, compared to the PC12, 13-inch screen, mobile phone on a screen can only one to two ads, while the PC on the advertising on the current 10.

Eric also monitors internet advertising revenues on the PC side, and we have 98% of the top 300 Internet ads in China's PC network. Top300 Freeapp is 40%. So this market is still very very elementary market. A huge amount of advertising resources.

Mobile apps and PC are not the same place, accurate, interactive, positional, long tail sex. These points, and the PC has a strong difference, around these several different, you can see some of the current exploration, including two-dimensional code exploration, based on mobile apps, as well as screen terminal visual impact effect, and map navigation these aspects of use. These are some of the points that we are considering at present. At these points there are also parts of the business that have tried this. Of course, these attempts are still very difficult, as long as the regional, it means that your take-all will encounter some challenges, like the PC Internet, rely on a product win-take-all words, relatively you will be challenged, because the offline factor content you have to put a lot of energy and cost to be very good coverage.

The second piece, I will talk about the electric business, immediately to double 11, we actually to the electric business observation, also more interested in, here, I would like to say, this year can be judged, next year, the pattern of the electricity quotient has been basically set. Why did you come up with such a judgment? From the entire market continuity of observation, from 2001 to 2012, the online shopping transaction size has been from 550 million, growth to less than 1.2 trillion this year, the year-on-year growth curve to 2012 gradually to 55% year-on-year growth, before we can see, From 2006 to 2010 basically 100%, doubled. The ability to double now is limited. The statistical caliber here is Consumer-to-consumer plus the Business-to-consumer. In the next few years, Consumer-to-consumer plus the overall network size of the net is 30% of the annual compound growth.

The early Internet, by the natural growth of demographic dividend, has stalled. More is the change of internal structure, the 1th is the rapid growth of the transaction structure of the company, and the Consumer-to-consumer trading structure is absorbed by the company, mainly because the adjustment of the mainstream enterprise's internal structure is closely related. In the last few quarters, the proportion of the business-to-consumer, in fact, has reached more than 33%, year-on-year growth rate of 100%, and consumer-to-consumer growth of only 20%, which is a very significant change. And the Business-to-consumer basically preempted and squeezed the consumer-to-consumer market, but not the whole plate continues to double the larger.

There is no doubt that we can see the whole business of business-to-business rising rapidly. The last quarter, ranked in the first few accounted for: Taobao, Jingdong, Qqbuy, Suning easy to buy, three add up to already nearly 85% of the market share. The reason why the electric quotient is competitive and market integration is the most important factor.

Online games in the Internet economy, in fact, has dominated the Chinese internet economy, the first half of the process, 07, 08 ago, basically to the net game revenue as the entire network of the first proportion of economic income, recently let the electricity quotient, we can see that the network market is currently the entire Internet market inside the most mature market, The first group is approaching 50% per cent, which is likely to exceed that ratio in the future. Mature market overall growth of 20%, the biggest change is also the internal structure of the changes.

The overall composition of the game revenue, although the year-on-year growth rate to 20%, but its internal structure is like E-commerce has undergone a great adjustment. The growth of online games and social games is gradually eroding the end of the tour. Product-side and stand-alone games, web games, social games, the product compartment will gradually gradually become smaller, product and product integration will become more and more big. It is becoming more and more obvious that we will observe this phenomenon in the next few years.

In addition, advertising, advertising is also the internet economy in one of the troika, just talk about electric business, games, now talk about advertising. China's Internet advertising revenue this year to break through 75 billion, the basic advertising revenue, it's an increase in the model, can be seen every year to maintain the growth of about 50%. The impact of a certain pressure this year on macroeconomic conditions and the immaturity of mobile internet traffic will be slightly lower than expected this year, and the overall trend will shift to around 30% next year. One of the core features is the growth of this online ad, this year to 79.3 billion, next year 107.4 billion growth, there may be more than television, which is actually a more important inflection point, and its driving force, at present, the most is from this picture inside, you can see two of the largest color block, Baidu, Taobao. Their volume, Baidu between 21.1 billion to 22 billion a year, Taobao 18 billion between, they both growth rate than the overall online advertising growth, are in more than 50%. These two ads are effect-type ads, the growth of the internet on the one hand, the larger the volume of the effect of advertising further high-speed growth, the other is network video, on average more than 50% of the media type from the video company. Effect-type advertising and network video advertising as the next step to promote the entire network of further stability and rapid growth of the core power.

The traditional display type advertisement of the brand is basically below the average line. This sort of quest for new breakthroughs, as mentioned at the meeting this morning and yesterday, is a hope that the emergence of a new advertising model, Exchange, RTB, to further enhance the advertising effect, if this change is well achieved, we believe that there will be good factors, Because next year's economic situation will not be completely reversed, this situation pressure, the need for more advanced advertising technology to promote more efficient, it is possible based on large data, Exchange, RTB, the formation of a complete advertising ecological chain will be accelerated next year to promote, It is likely to bring a more positive force to the growth of the overall online advertising.

The last point is to pay, this rebate on the topic of mobile Internet, payment is considered to be a core element of pry O2O and mobile internet. The current trend of China's payment market, Chinese network payment is first due to network shopping brought up, online shopping within 70% of the size of the transaction from the network to pay, with the increase in the proportion of consumers, the rate of penetration will gradually decline, because more people, the proportion of goods to pay will be more and more.

The space for payment is expanding to the traditional field. This color block inside, yellow color block, is currently a lot of enterprises in the field of breakthrough, including insurance, education, retail, tourism, supply chain, and so on, across the border, these areas are actually at present, many companies are doing a bit of innovation, especially with mobile payment, mobile payment, the real is to put the line and offline to get it through, At present, the form of mobile payment based on similar to the sliding card payment, there is a comprehensive payment platform, as well as mobile phone billing form, as well as a fixed merchant prepaid card. These mobile payment models have started a positive and widespread attempt in the industry.

The whole mobile payment to promote the emergence of new industry, Tencent's micro-letter should be said that we are very concerned about. In fact, the micro-letter inside the strong push is the line of the merchant, there are many certified merchants pushing his coupons in the push of his user card. And this user card and coupon, very much like group buying, but with the biggest difference is that it can pay and micro-letter to get through, users can open a convenient payment tool, through the two-dimensional code to form your concern offline Enterprise GUANWI, while making a payment form, this form and previous group buying is the biggest difference.

This is the change of mobile internet traffic, really based on the location of mobile Internet, a new ecological system, we are constantly observing. Believe that the mobile internet its prospects are bright, because we believe that the power of the Internet, it is indeed contributing to a new economic industry and new patterns, we look forward to this day, thank you!