China's foreign exchange reserves break 2 trillion dollars to hide new worries

Xinhua Beijing, July 15 (Xinhua News agency reporter Wang Jiang Rui Yiu Junfang) The slowdown in China's foreign exchange reserves began to change in the 2 quarter: As of the first half of 2009, the National foreign exchange reserves exceeded the 2 trillion dollar pass.　　Among them, the first half of the country's foreign exchange reserves increased 185.6 billion U.S. dollars, only two quarters added 178 billion U.S. dollars, foreign exchange reserves to regain rapid growth pace.　　Analysts point out that the rapid growth of China's foreign exchange reserves is closely related to the steady recovery of China's economy, and the authorities should be wary of the many worries behind the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves. With the gradual stabilization of the economy and the expected impact of the appreciation of the renminbi, the negative growth of China's foreign exchange reserves in December has been replaced by a monthly climb; data show that in the two quarter of three months, the monthly new reserves were 55.2 billion U.S. dollars, 80.6 billion dollars, 42.1 billion U.S. dollars,　　Much higher than the amount of foreign exchange reserves in the months after the financial crisis broke out. "The rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves in the two quarter, on the one hand and the trade surplus is still growing, on the other hand, also shows that international investors optimistic about China's economic trend, which hides the figure of international hot money."　　Zhuang, senior economist at the Asian Development Bank, told Xinhua.　　Before the general administration of Customs data showed that the first half of China's foreign trade import and export value of 946.12 billion U.S. dollars, down 23.5%, but due to import more than exports, the first half of China still maintain a trade surplus of 96.94 billion U.S. dollars. Compared to Japan, the United States and other economies, the Chinese economy in the two quarter of a steady rebound in the signs, the future to the good trend is more obvious, at the same time, the domestic stock market, real estate markets increasingly hot. "Asset market has always been the international hot money fixed investment area, the market in the two quarter obviously warmer, attracted a lot of hot money, this is the two quarter of the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves important reason."　　"Zhuang said. The increase of the central bank's foreign exchange accounts also confirms the recovery of foreign exchange reserves.　　By the end of May, China's financial institutions foreign exchange accounted for the balance of 17,658,751,000,000 yuan, of which May financial institutions new foreign exchange accounted for 242.565 billion yuan, the increase was the highest since this year. High foreign exchange reserves have been regarded by experts as a double-edged sword. On the one hand, under the background of the financial crisis and the global economic recession, high foreign exchange reserves can be used as the regulator of international finance, which can provide the guarantee for the national financial stability and crisis relief.　　But at a time when global liquidity is rampant, the excessive growth of reserves is undoubtedly fraught with risks, causing concern among experts. Changbaoliang, an economist at the National Information Center, said that the biggest hazard to the influx of hot money would be the emergence of asset bubbles, which are not unrelated to the current stock and housing price increases. "In addition to blowing a big asset bubble, leading to inflation, the inflow of hot money will make the renminbi face upward pressure, and the appreciation of the renminbi will have a negative impact on exports."　　"Changbaoliang said. Foreign exchange expert Chen Bingcai that the further formation of high reserves has increased the management difficulty of the foreign Exchange Management department., because regardless of the composition of the reserve, its value is in the risk of constant change. How to realize the preservation of the outside is a big challenge that Chinese authorities must face. This year, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have adopted quantitative easing of monetary policy, in the long run, the depreciation of the dollar has been a few suspense, and thus triggered commodity prices.　　Experts pointed out that in order to avoid this "double loss", the external storage structure adjustment and effective use appears to be particularly critical. Among the many claims of effective use of foreign exchange reserves, there has been a high demand for more strategic assets, more reserves of energy and resources.　　But experts point out that China, as a big buyer in the international market, will naturally sharply increase the price of such assets once it has been heavily involved in a particular asset or commodity, and will instead bring in unnecessary reserve losses. Encouraging enterprises to go out is becoming a way for the authorities to defuse the risk of foreign exchange reserves. "The Government encourages enterprises to go out, to a certain extent, to reduce domestic foreign exchange reserves, through loans for oil and other specific methods, our country to convert some of US dollar assets into oil and gas resources such as assets, to adjust the structure of foreign exchange reserves, promote the diversification of foreign exchange reserves to resist financial risks will play　　"Zhang Bin, deputy director of the international financial Room of the World Academy of Social Sciences, China.　　It is reported that the first half of China's petrochemical enterprises with Russia, Brazil, Kazakhstan, Venezuela and other countries signed a series of total value of 44 billion U.S. dollars of "loan for oil" agreement, these are regarded as the use of foreign reserves to support enterprises out of overseas success stories. However, some experts pointed out that the solution to the high risk of foreign exchange reserves, these methods are only "symptoms" rather than "radical" strategy. Yu Yu, director of the Institute of Social Sciences, said that this may solve the stock problem in foreign exchange reserves, but it cannot solve the problem of traffic growth. He believes that the key to solve the problem is to take measures to realize the transformation of economic growth mode and realize the balanced development of economy.