Data gives long confidence--May fund investment Strategy Report

As the domestic economy began to rebound in the two quarter, the performance of listed companies gradually rebound, relaxed stimulus policy will not change, we believe that the May market with the main trend of the upward oscillation, but due to the valuation and early gains, the upward space may be suppressed. Bohai Securities Sheifuhua based on our judgment on the overall trend of the May market, the fund's overall investment strategy in May was held. We continue to uphold the investment strategy we articulated at the beginning of 2009 years and continue throughout 2009, namely, the strategy of low involvement and long-term ownership. Although the investor may also carry on the band operation, but the timing and the transaction cost bring the huge challenge to the investor, we do not agree with the fund investor too frequently operation.　　We always believe that every fall in the 2009 market is a good opportunity for investors to intervene, and the deeper the decline, the less market risk, the greater the gains, the cornerstone of which is that macroeconomic growth will grow better, the four quarter will be better than the year, and 2010 will be better than 2009. The economy is getting warmer. Data from the China Logistics and Purchasing Federation released in early May showed that the April national Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 53.5%, 1.1% higher than the March 52.4%.　　The index rebounded 5 consecutive months since December 2008, starting at the top of 50%, marking the contraction and expansion of the economy this March, suggesting that the economy is warming up with an expanded macroeconomic policy stimulus. March increase in the number of industries above the value of year-on-year growth. March-year-scale industrial growth increased by 8.3% Year-on-year, while 1-February growth was only 3.8%; at the same time, the central enterprise in March has seen a significant rebound, profits rose 26%, the chain Rose 86%.　　It can be seen that the domestic economic micro-level improvement after February exceeded expectations. By the national policy of the positive stimulus, domestic auto production and sales show gradually warmer scene, home appliances sales also showed a rapid rebound signs. In addition, the civil aviation business situation also fully warmed up.　　In the previous March, the passenger traffic volume of civil aviation increased by 21%, 13% and 14% respectively in the same period last year, and returned double digit growth since March 2008. The PMI index rebounded in May, the civil aviation business situation has warmed up completely, before March our country automobile sales world First, the electric appliance countryside policy stimulation sales to rebound, as well as the economic sentiment index and the entrepreneur Confidence index rebound, all have already manifested by the macroeconomic policy stimulation and the promotion, the expansionary macroscopic policy potency already is gradually appearing,　　GDP growth of 6.1% in the first quarter is expected to be the trough of the year. The effect of the continued increase in liquidity has been rapid, with new loans achieving a better-than-expected increase, with new loans totaling 4.58 trillion in the first quarter, close to the 08-year level. According to the relevant departments revealed that April the first 20 days of new loans have exceeded 400 billion yuan, continue to maintain a certain rate of growth. From the absolute amount of credit volume has always been a quarterly decline in the process, which is very normal; if the usual quarterly newIncreased loans accounted for around 50% of the year, the total number of new loans this year may reach about 8 trillion of the size. With the first quarter of 4.58 trillion new loans, the follow-up management will adopt a prudent contraction policy, and whether the new size will continue to be the focus of the market. First, in recent years, the central bank and the CBRC have declared: "Resolutely implement a moderately loose monetary policy", "faster growth in money and credit more advantages than harm", "credit policy has not changed" and so on. So, from the clear stance of management, it is certain that the current credit policy will be renewed. Second, according to the former high after the low law, the monthly new loan size will gradually fall back to a modest scale. Third, the size of new credit in 2009 will grow more than normal. According to the relevant agency estimates, based on 10 years of nominal GDP/loan balance experience data, that is to say, credit for 10 years to the economic growth of the consistent contribution ability, maintain 8% of the growth rate will require new credit 6.66 trillion to 8.71 trillion yuan.　　Thus, in the remaining three quarters, maintaining a quarterly average of about 900 billion yuan can basically meet the needs of new loans, and this size is basically guaranteed and achieved, which means that the likelihood of completing the 8% growth rate is greatly increased. Therefore, based on the implementation of the choice and policy of continuous promotion, 2009 years will maintain the continued increase in liquidity, the real economy to maintain a positive role in promoting the stock market will also have a good supporting role. The two-quarter results of listed companies will continue to recover the 2009-year Quarterly report of 1624 companies, a total of 203.76 billion of the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company, comparable data still fall, but with 2008 years of the Four seasons to achieve net profit of 36.806 billion yuan, the chain growth of 4.5 times times. As of April 29, the two cities 1417 listed companies to eliminate the factors, the first quarter to achieve business income of 1.978 trillion yuan, down 13.2% year-on-year, but the chain growth of 52 times times.　　Also excluding the factors, the company this year weighted average earnings per share of 0.086 yuan, down 0.031 yuan, the chain increase of 0.068 yuan. Although the first quarter net profit is still showing a downward trend, but with 2008 years to achieve a net profit of 36.806 billion yuan, the chain growth 4.5 times times, at the same time compared to the previous reporting period, there are insurance, chemical industry, civil aviation, non-ferrous Metals and other 11 industries to profit, by the national macroeconomic policies stimulated by the effect of the show,　　Listed companies in the first quarter has shown a good trend of important information, and this effect will continue to show a better change in the two quarter, listed companies two quarterly results will be better than the first quarterly. IPO, lifting and reduction temporarily limited market impact at the end of March this year, the SFC issued the "initial public offering shares and on the Gem listing management interim measures" and from May 1 this year began to implement.　　This from the basic rules and regulations established the GEM rules and the gem is about to sail. April 20In an interview, the SFC's head of the Securities and Futures Commission disclosed the road map of the gem: first, introduce the whole system, and then start the training of the comprehensive intermediary agencies.　　According to the SFC's timeline, we believe that it will take more than two months to complete all kinds of preparation and training, and it will depend on the preparation of enterprises and sponsoring agencies. So, the official opening of the IPO should wait until June, in May the market will be affected by the IPO is not too big.　　We have already pointed out in last month's two-quarter fund investment strategy: do not panic Ipo,ipo gate opening will be the market gives the investor the opportunity again to intervene in the market. On the amount of the non-tradable, according to the monthly disclosure of shares in the company's share restrictions on the lifting of restrictions and reduce the situation, the total release of 12.718 billion shares in March, compared to the previous one months a small reduction of 7.73%. One of the major non-lifting 10.652 billion shares, accounting for more than 83.75%, small non-2.067 billion shares of the monthly lifting volume fell 32.1%.　　However, at present, the market is still around 2,500, not fully attract the total amount of the amount of the volume, at the same time by the relevant reduction provisions and the need for holding, will not be a large number of reduction, even if the division gradually reduce, in the current market ample funds, fully capable of taking. The May investment strategy was based on a domestic economy that began to rebound in the two quarter, the performance of listed companies is picking up, and the liquidity released by the loose stimulus policy continues to support economic growth and to prop up the stock market; Stock valuations enter a relatively reasonable range, and stocks from the beginning to the end of April have 36-46% to varying degrees. The stock market has actually once again entered the structural market of the plate wheel movement.　　Therefore, we on the May market trends to judge: the trend of the main shocks upward, but due to valuation, and the earlier large increase in constraints, the uplink space will be suppressed. From the 2008 Annual report and the 2009 quarterly analysis, pharmaceutical, commercial, food and beverage, textile and apparel are year-on-year and chain growth of the industry; from the specific plate, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, the 2009 1 quarterly listed companies attributable to the owner of the parent company net profit total of 188.437 billion yuan, down 25.46 %, the chain growth of 305%, also become the focus of the market attention of the target; national stimulus, LED lighting, new energy, military, transmission and transformation equipment, railway locomotives, building materials will continue to be concerned about the market.