Deep development: A ready to draw the White paper revaluation time is ripe

Sina tip: This article belongs to the Research Report column, only for the analysis of a stock of personal views and views, and the unofficial news report, Sina does not guarantee its authenticity and objectivity, all relevant to the stock of effective information to the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange of the announcement as prevail, please investors pay attention to risk. A ready to draw a white paper and the advantages of CMB Ursula Shiya/Article Reference Hong Kong banking mergers and acquisitions experience, all roe in more than 10% of the banks, mergers and acquisitions prices are 3 times times more than PB. In 2009-2010, the net assets of the deep development were 7 yuan and 9 yuan respectively, so the valuation interval was 20-27 yuan. The closing price for May 14 was 17. 4 Yuan.　　Future mergers and acquisitions will bring trading opportunities. At present, the large shareholder Xinqiao Group has a total of 16.76% deep development Stakes, this part of the restricted shares from June 2008 to June 2010, from the release of all the lifting is only 1 years, the weighted cost of 4.28 yuan.　　As a financial investor, the new bridge exit is a matter of sooner or later.　　For the potential buyers of the deep development, whether it is China life, or the national Development Bank, or any other, excellent organizational framework and a fairly large balance sheet of the second largest tradable shareholder, the Benie gift of Newman's team at the end of 2008, before the new bridge left. These will shorten the running-in period after acquisition.　　In other words, since banks have a natural profit-regulating function, the new owner can draw on the "white paper" in depth as he wills. 2009 will be the year of transition.　　The deep development had been constrained by low capital adequacy ratios and high non-performing loan rates, with much of the non-performing loans that had been formed 2005 years ago in the fourth quarter of 2008. The company's management, despite the good expectations of the market for its positive growth this year, has more than once said prudent management to ensure a healthy development for the 2009-year operating tone.　　This bodes well for its past strategy of pursuing high profits with high risk, perhaps unsustainable.　　What kind of "white paper" is this?　　Clear profit Model 2005 years later, the main power of deep development and growth focused on housing mortgage loans and supply chain financial derivative loans, the structure of loans is simple, clear and strong.　　By the end of the three quarter of 2008, Trade finance loans and personal housing mortgage loans accounted for 68% of the new loans, and the non-performing rate was far lower than other types of corporate loans.　　Let's review the financial statements for the past five quarters. Whether in the middle of 2008 years of liquidity tightening, or in the 2009-year period of liquidity flooding, the bank's loans to the public and retail ratio of 7:3; In the deposit, the public and retail ratio of 4:1, deposits under the breakdown of the margin deposit, treasury and agreement deposits, regular and demand deposits are basically kept at 29% , 8%, 32% and 32% levels of the low blessing that is, deep development to build a unique deposit structure-demand deposits, time deposits and margin deposits accounted for 1/3, tripodState。 This stability has become the basis of the company's operations, the most direct manifestation of the 2009-year quarter spreads only fell 0.11%, far below the level of peers. The main reason is that deposit rates are priced more quickly than loan rates, so the cost of debt falls faster than the rate at which lending rates fall during the cut-rate cycle.　　By the end of 2008, the Gao Ding ratio had led to a faster decline in debt costs. As a small and medium-sized joint-stock Bank which does not have strong government background and large group background, serving small and medium-sized enterprises and retail customers is the fundamental outlet for sustainable growth.　　The position of deep development is the same as that of the merchant bank, the retail business needs a long period of customer training, and the supply chain finance for small and medium-sized enterprises has been carried out more successfully now. The average cost of deep development margin deposit is between company deposit and retail deposit, with 3-6 months as the main deposit, and the bank's bargaining power is strong, the cost of this part of the debt reduction period is much lower.　　For example, from the four quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of 2009, the average cost of guaranteed deposits dropped from 2.79% to 2.1%, while the average cost of corporate deposits fell from 2.49% to 1.89%, and the average cost of retail deposits dropped from 2.89% to 2.37%. Individual mortgage loan and supply chain finance all have strong market-oriented characteristics. The stability of the housing market and the stability of commodity prices are key to business development, and these two factors are not controlled by banks. However, when housing prices and commodity prices are in a stable or rising process, the performance of the deep development will be increased faster.　　In the first quarter of this year, deep development share price doubled, in addition to the fundamentals to improve the factors, to a certain extent, is the embodiment of its high beta. In the interest rate cut cycle, the deep development of the net interest margin is protected by a unique deposit structure, and because of its trade financing business more than 90% are domestic business, by the current deterioration of the export situation of the impact of the two points is not comparable to the CMB.　　With the implementation of the 4 trillion economic stimulus plan and more policies to stimulate domestic demand, the real estate market is stabilizing and the growth momentum of deep development will be stronger. As of the end of 2009, the balance of home mortgage loans accounted for 60% of the retail loan balance, accounting for 14.5% of total loans. From the chain view, increased by 4%. The credit balance of trade finance business increased by 3%.　　At present, the trade financing balance in the total amount of corporate loans accounted for about One-fourth, the future development space is still very large. From the April real estate transaction data, the Shenzhen region's volume growth is the strongest, while the number of small and medium-sized enterprises in the region has a relatively rapid growth in both year-on-year and chain, indicating that the private sector in the area of credit demand will be restored earlier. The deep development of southern China's business is the most heavy, the region's credit recovery will make its growth more determined.　　Another aspect is that the first quarter of 2009 was a significant source of profits in auto loans, up 11.9% from the end of 2008. From the background of the Government's nurturing consumption at the end of last year, it is undoubtedly an innovation in the industry to develop the car loans, which shows that their business development has always been in line with the marketThe need to maintain a very strong consistency, and innovation has a certain degree of resistance to cyclical. This kind of cyclic performance in the change of profit environment, due to the small size of assets, coupled with higher capital adequacy ratio, so that the timely change of risk weight is possible.　　If the risk weight of the general loan is 100%, and the personal loan is only 50%, increase the rate of return on net assets by appropriately increasing the growth of the retail loan and reducing the capital consumption.　　Supply chain financial breakthrough in the fierce deposit and loan competition, deep development by virtue of "supply chain finance" occupy a strategic Highland.　　This innovation was formally launched in 2006, the deep development so in 2008 won a number of awards, its "Pool financing" series of products were selected as "the most popular financial products of the national SMEs." Minsheng Bank in recent years also shouted "trade finance" slogan, put forward to do "accounts receivable management Experts", "China's domestic first-class characteristic trade bank." But in the specific business, and the deep development based on the domestic model is different, people's livelihood is more aimed at international business, for Chinese enterprises to "go out" to provide financial services.　　But it is believed that there is still a direct competitive relationship at some level.　　According to the guarantee deposit structure disclosed in the 2008-year report of the people's livelihood, more than 83% is the acceptance deposit, the letter of credit and the letter of guarantee account for more than the deep development annual report and the quarterly bulletin have not disclosed the deposit deposit structure, resulting in a more detailed comparison. The deep development of "supply chain finance" is not a general "trade financing". The latter is for importers (buyers) or exporters (sellers) and import and export trade settlement related to short-term financing or credit facilitation, including credit issuing, import bills, delivery guarantee, export bills and other business.　　Trade financing still uses the traditional credit mode, that is, the trustee's own financial and operating situation as the core of credit evaluation, although the whole credit evaluation process, the risk of single transaction is also included in the scope of consideration, but the weight is lower. The concrete method is: Take the supply chain finance as the cut-in point, carries on the marketing to the core enterprise, through the core enterprise to the supply chain upstream supplier and the downstream distributor carries on the marketing. At present, the main focus of the business is on the distribution channel of prepayment financing and inventory financing, to confirm the authenticity of trade through the order confirmation of the core enterprise, to control the capital flow by opening a collection account for the core enterprise and opening a payment account to the Distributor, and by signing a cooperation agreement with a third party logistics company, To realize the third party logistics supervision and its own irregular patrol warehouse supervision.　　These meticulous arrangements can greatly reduce credit risk. After the 2008 subprime crisis, commodity prices adjusted sharply, but the deep development of trade financing business is only slowing growth, contraction is not obvious.　　Trade finance clients increased by 30% in 2008, only South China fell 8%, while other regions maintained 25% per cent; in the first quarter of 2009, South China was basically stable, the chain fell by only 0.3%, and other regions kept 3%-13% growth. Deep development of supply chain finance around the core enterprises to carry out business, facing the bargaining powerStrong core enterprises, only at low prices for marketing, and then through the supply chain of small and medium-sized enterprises to provide financial services to obtain income.　　Faced with such small and medium-sized enterprises, it has a strong bargaining power, has been the implementation of the loan interest rate of 10% floating policy, for the bank spreads to provide a certain degree of protection.　　With international experience, a stabilisation of commodity prices and a recovery in trade are leading the recovery, which means that the deep development of a rebound in public lending will lead to a revival of corporate lending (excluding paper financing) as a result of the stabilisation of future commodity prices.　　On the other hand, the current market demand is shrinking, the core enterprises to maintain the channels of distributors will be very strong, but conducive to the deep development of the supply chain finance market exploration, especially in the business model is more mature and market space is very large, such as steel, coal and energy industry, deep development has the advantage of The fluctuation of mortgage price is the main risk of trade financing, the ratio of deep development loan value (LTV) is controlled above 70%, while the price of goods declines by more than 5%, the bank will ask customers to increase collateral or margin. If the customer fails to meet the target within 10 days of the issuance of the additional collateral or margin notice, the deep development has the right to dispose of the goods to repay the loan.　　2008 10-November when the price of goods fell sharply, the quality of the deep development trade financing loan did not drop significantly, which indicated that risk control was better. The future risk of expansion in speed is mainly the sustainability of the growth in deposit support for credit expansion. At present, the bank's ability to absorb deposits is still slightly inadequate. The industry has been growing dramatically since 2007, doubling in a row. 2008 Year-on-year Growth of 220%, the first quarter quarter-on-quarter growth of 165%. Corporate deposits, which account for more than 80% of new loans in the first quarter, are the main drivers of deposit growth.　　Retail deposits grew more slowly, but the risk was relatively manageable at the rate-cutting cycle. Deep development at the end of the quarter capital adequacy ratio of 8.53%, lower than the CBRC proposed 10% guidance level. But the core capital adequacy ratio is 5.23%, which provides a large space for the issuance of subordinated debt to complement the capital adequacy ratio. It is expected to issue 1.5 billion levels of debt in the two quarter and plans to raise the capital adequacy ratio to 10% by 2009.　　The expansion will accelerate after the indicators have basically reached regulatory standards. However, the recent proliferation of liquidity, as at the end of April, the interbank market daily capital Lending has reached the 600 billion yuan/day since September 2007, the new record, and the weighted overnight rate of 0.8% of the new low, so that the deep development of the original has the efficient and practical ability to operate funds to some extent suppressed,　　Increased the cost of its use of capital pressure.　　The longer-term blow may come from the CBRC's recently announced "adjustment to market access policy for small and medium sized commercial banks", which has made it possible for listed banks, especially city firms, to compete for resources with deeper development (grassroots market demand, market and sales-led strategies).　　These two variables will directly or indirectly suppress the deep development of the profit space. 2008The beginning of the year, the deep development of the branch opened to a number of economically more developed county-level cities. If the company has 3 branches in Zhejiang, of which the branch in Yiwu has been upgraded to branches, the company in the local business to develop well. The company will continue to accelerate its development on this basis in 2009 and plans to open 20 branches in relatively economically preferable cities, while opening 1-2 branches in big cities or capital cities.　　In the past six or seven years, new branches have stalled as capital adequacy ratios have fallen below regulatory standards.　　In addition, in a quarterly bulletin, investors can find that the development of the "Credit Union" of regional commercial banks, which has been established with Hankou Bank (middle and Lower Yangtze River), Huizhou Merchant Bank (north of Yangtze River), Dongguan Bank (Zhujiang Delta) and Chongqing Commercial Bank (southwest), is very targeted in the layout, which forms the network layout of the Midwest.　　The above cooperation object in the layout is very targeted, the formation of the Midwest Network layout, which will make deep development can not rely on the expansion of new branches, but also in the information to marry the allocation of funds to get more support. The "Credit Union", which arose in the United States in the 780, is designed to further increase the bank's operating leverage. This would allow banks to acquire capital and allocate capital positions without substantially increasing costs, while gaining access to local information and potential credit resources.