Do not O2O the United States, the opportunity is not much please eyes

This article starts in Baidu Hundred.

A few days ago, listening to the Silicon Valley entrepreneurial mentor, PayPal black teachers and parents Thiel passionate speech, I and an investor talked about China's Internet entrepreneurship in the field of "herd" phenomenon, the investor friend Sinister Laugh out: "To see the application of nail, you understand!" ”

I use the "nail" keyword in the millet application market searched for a moment, the search results scare me a jump, more than 100 applications. It is a pity, last year only once a nail experience of me, the only heard of the application is the Beaver home, then provide door-to-door class service of the nail O2O, and only this one home.

In his speech, Thiel talked about two models of entrepreneurial success, one is revolutionary innovation "from 0 to 1", and the other is "from 1 to N". Ghost Trot Empty Thiel, with an appreciation of innovation from 0 to 1.

99% of the founders of the nail application, do you think that their pure imitation of innovative entrepreneurship, in the end is from 0 to 1, or from 1 to n? Please allow me to poison my tongue, I think it's just from 1 to 1 or from N to 1, or even from 1 to 0.

Whether from 0 to 1 or from 1 to N, as a successor, you must find the pain point of the predecessor, some innovative breakthrough, in order to punch dead master. But I looked carefully at the 99 of the application of the nail, read, really worried for you ah. In terms of products and services themselves, there is a lack of innovation that makes people bright. Second, also lacks the necessary marketing ability, I put these nail application the screenshot to send to the friend group, even often the nail "white rich beauty", also has not heard these 99 nail application.

I really want to say, wake up, Kiss! See the success of the case, you flocked to herd, coax is coax, but to really "superior" is too difficult. And, by this year, the O2O of the entire American industry will be closed.

One, the American industry O2O off the Tide

Just before the spring festival about two weeks ago, a hair type app closed. The founder X of this hair-type app is always my friend. His mobile end product has been online for more than a year, but the choice of closing the door for three. First, the competition is too fierce, the leader's first-onset advantage is too obvious, and basically monopolize the platform to provide services to the craftsmen and consumer resources. The entire U.S. O2O in the short term, is not a particularly big market, but the number of competitors, it is too difficult to get on top. Second, the U.S. industry O2O is non-standard services, the pace is too slow, will be discussed in the following details. Third, because of many competitors, the United States O2O and slow, leading to the U.S. industry O2O need long-term burning money, investors must be the first choice for investment in industry-leading enterprises. He talked about a few investors last year, term all signed, but investors are not paying, and willing to pay the investors give money is not enough, "our bottom line is 5 million dollars, but can get too little money, than not to take also uncomfortable, because you know you can't live." ”

Aware of the above points, he did not tangle too long, decided to close down. He believes the entire US O2O will close a large number this year, "close the door early and burn less money." ”

Swarmed's US O2O reached a boom in 2014, marking the investment of a large number of us O2O companies. For example, the founder of the Beaver House, the product is not online, only a pioneering idea, IDG investors Li Feng gave a 150 million valuation. On New Year's Eve, the Beaver family received a C round of 50 million dollars in investment, the valuation rose to 300 million U.S. dollars. In addition to the Beaver family, beautiful A, Amy home and so also got the amount of investment.

Unfortunately, the climax is always short. The future estimates hundreds of millions of of the U.S. market, in the end can prop up the number of U.S. industry O2O?

Can be compared to the group buying market, Group buy the total market conservative estimate also has a few 10 trillion, most of the same industry. 2011 and 2012 Buy the hottest, China thousands of group buy site, but four or five years past, live well and days can go down but four or five. Therefore, you calculate, provide door-to-door service in the future of the U.S. industry O2O field, in the end can have a few survive?!

Second, the U.S. industry is non-standard services

In fact, the past group purchase site also provided the United States services, but why the group buy why the impetus of the U.S. industry is not strong? One of the reasons is that the U.S. industry is non-standard services, whether it is carving ye, or just closed the x total, are very recognized this, in addition, the Beaver Home and other U.S. industry O2O popular, but also because of the door-to-door service, door-to-door service further enhanced the non-standard attributes.

Non-standard services, I summed up a word, is "two difficult to serve", to do a good job in the United States O2O platform, we must learn to be at both ends of the "Xiaoxifu".

From the supply side, the number of non-standard services, its professionalism is difficult to replace, that is, carving ye mouth of the "craftsmen."

With the hottest trip last year O2O a pair than you can understand, in the Travel o2o field, the driver provides is the relative standard service, the technical threshold is low. However, since taxis are the area of control, the qualifications of taxis and taxi drivers are scarce resources, the other said. But at least the use of special cars, such as a car rental, such as a bus, and so on, as long as the salary is high, it is not difficult to find enough drivers.

But nail artist, beautician, hairdresser is not the same, all need to have professional skills training, the traditional barber, may be in the barber shop as a few years of shampoo, only to give the guests the qualification and opportunity to cut the head. So for the platform, to find enough professional American craftsmen is the key. Wu Shichung, an angel investor who has invested in two U.S. industry O2O, says that supply is a particularly crucial part of the o2o of American industry. Because of this, almost the so-called U.S. O2O in the announcement of performance, they should emphasize how many craftsmen, such as the Beaver Home on the nail platform has more than 2000 nail division.

The United States non-standard service customers are also difficult to serve, women to buy this service is to make themselves look more beautiful, so, female customers in the heart is expected to be relatively high, if the hair did not cut well, barber and barber shop will be hated for life. In addition, women are particularly sensual animals, and nail salons are relatively high customer price services, and therefore belong to prudent decision-making.

The nail is OK, the beauty of the customer single volume growth more slowly, such as providing door-to-door beauty services small beauty home. One of my investor friends thinks it's good to have a nice team at home, but by January this year, little Amy had only dozens of orders a day.

It is in the supply side, the professional service is limited, and the client is also a non-high-frequency service, so the entire U.S. industry O2O is not particularly large, even if the industry benchmarking Beaver Home, product on-line one year, daily orders also just over 10,000.

Such industry attributes, means that the return cycle is relatively long, and from the current point of view, all the U.S. O2O is a loss situation, requires entrepreneurs and investors must be tolerant of loneliness, you are willing to continue to see the return of the burning money down? Even if willing, certainly also willing to the industry boss that burn. Then compare travel O2O, the heat but two or three years, drops and fast merger before the daily average order to hundreds of thousands of, in short, the United States and O2O is a "look very beautiful, actually bitter force" industry.

The theory of transverse extension of the O20 of American industry

The current U.S. industry, including nail, hair, beauty, beauty makeup and so on. The question is, does the Beaver's family specialize in manicure? Not only does the eagle say no, but investors and other entrepreneurs do not believe that the Beaver House will only do manicure. Sure enough, the Beaver home now business has extended to the United States, the United States, such as the eyelash, beauty, and so on, it is rumored that soon to enter the area of beauty, hairdressing.

So when X is always looking for an investment in the second half of last year, almost all investors ask a question: "What do you do if a beaver's home is also a hairdresser?"

Investors who ask this question are not stupid, essentially, whether it is a nail, beauty, hairdressing services are the same group of female clients. A woman who loves manicure will not tolerate a messy explosive head. So, if you earn a manicure, why don't you just make other money? It is precisely because the user group of each subdivision of the United States is highly coincident, so the American industry O2O is very suitable for horizontal extension, well, according to Thiel theory, this transverse extension should be called "from 1 to N". Besides, using the influence of the existing platform to expand the business horizontally, also can save a lot of customer fees, and, according to platform theory, like omnipotent Taobao, the platform provides services (products) More, the more can attract more users, and more users, attract more craftsmen to settle in.

Do not understand think guoqing, silly guoqing may initially feel that they are selling books, Jingdong is selling electrical appliances, impinging, the final outcome you know, now Jingdong market capitalisation 40 billion, when the market value of less than 800 million.

Four, 5 ways to Kill a beaver's home

Based on the O2O of the American industry, the pioneer of the money is very greedy, will not empty a subdivision of the United States market, so that the latter take advantage of, then, other U.S. O2O to catch up, you must first dry the boss Beaver home. It is not impossible to dry a beaver's home, as long as you do the following:

1, you're cheaper than a beaver's service.

Unfortunately, I saw a few app, price and no obvious advantages, not the U.S. industry O2O stingy, the reason is very simple.

First, the Beaver family does not get a cent from the nail artist, which means that the female clients pay the beaver's family a point does not leave to the nail division, therefore, the Middle interception Department costs 0, there is no room for compression, and, if the price is lower, it may be the nail division will not do, so the price of the Beaver home should be regarded as the industry floor.

Second, by subsidizing the way to let consumers, such examples can be seen in the fast and drop and subsidy war. But the problem, fast and dripping behind the Godfather is Ali and Tencent, and burned a billion of U.S. dollars, two God-Father also can not hold up, two of the company to burn money to merge. No godfather, on their own line can not, sorry, does not seem to do, first of all, the United States O2O are losing money to make a yell. Second, the entire U.S. industry O2O, the largest amount of financing is still the beaver home, even if the subsidy war, other U.S. industry O2O also spell.

2, you can do marketing. Marketing is also the ability, for example, Xiaoping insists that investing in Ma Jiajia is the right decision, although Ma Jiajia has not made any products yet.

But the truth is very cruel, carving ye self-proclaimed advertising dog, MLM Tutor origin, before on the mouth to eat, carving ye's professional cheat ability is not better than horse Jia. Secondly, the eagle has done the olive oil, the olive oil is a woman's money, carving ye may be more than women know women, cheat female customers experience.

3, the service you offer is better than the Beaver's.

Good service depends on two factors, the first online door-to-door service, the craftsman is not enough professional, this I do not understand, do not evaluate, but from the number of craftsmen, the Beaver Home is still the first. Second, the user experience on the online client is friendly. I saw five or six nail app, really similar, because this app is not high content, as long as the fool a bit.

4, you are more than the beaver family to melt more money, it is a pity, the U.S. industry O2O financing Climax has passed, and then want to melt more money difficult, will be detailed below.

5, alongside on Tyrants Godfather, Union bat. Bat three, to money, someone, to resources have resources, to flow has flow, bat a shot, the beaver home won't last long. The key is that bat three is not interested in this low-frequency consumption? Oh, even if interested, why not cooperate with the industry boss, anyway the truth is so cruel ...

Five, the investment climax has passed

Well, reluctantly said is the investment climax, in fact, the United States O2O did not have a climax, after all, is a relatively small number of users of the vertical market, and the short-lived small climax, only in 2014 years lasted a small six months, at that time, a group of American industry O2O got the investment. However, my friend X is always sad to find that by the end of 2014, "Investors on the United States O2O only interested, willing to talk about, a small number of investors willing to pay a little money to gamble, but a lot of no!" ”

The reason is very simple, the United States O2O go slow, the return cycle is also very long, you from the proud of the craftsmen and users there are not to get money. Now every American industry O2O platform eagerly looking forward to the craftsman, which has the right to take the initiative to bargain?! and making money from users, in essence, and the artisan Rob benefits, divide the cake, then will lead to the end of the user terminal price improvement, and the door of the two major selling point nail is the door, one is cheap, now or the user incubation period, which American O2O dare to pull wool from the sheep! Therefore, all the O2O of the United States are huge losses, Lian Home is no exception.

Because of losses, so need to melt money from investors, so, a O2O beauty industry to provide door-to-door, only dozens of a day, this single volume may not be compared to a line of beauty shop, an offer valuation is on billion. But investors may be reluctant to return a long period, the risk of burning money, and industry competitors in the ranking gradually clear, so much less willing to throw money to the successor ——— in short, this knot means that the investment window has been closed.

Focus on the origins of Angel Investment Hui told me that it is hard for us O2O to get an angel investment. "Everyone is looking forward to the future, a year ago a category of fire, then cast almost, a year later, the leader has come out, who else will cast the same category?" ”

Is it easy to get the money? In fact, it is not necessarily, think about the big tyrants litters Group, now drop soup Phoenix than chicken, in the suffering of the market.

Wu Shichung has been in the Angel round a doodle nail, last October, Doodle Nail to get a round million dollar class A round of financing, but Wu Shichung said, this even staged success is not counted, "hope to quickly go to the latter round." ”

Let's look at the Beaver House, which just melted to 50 million dollars before the Spring Festival, tyrants in order to this 50 million dollars and 300 million valuation, carving ye himself's shares down to 50%, lost the absolute holding status, because if you want to do the platform, just wait to burn the money, think of Jack Ma's Ali, starting from 1999 to the 2014 listing For exactly 15 years. Secondly, the death rate of the platform is also very high, far from saying, think about buying it, the grain and fodder, in order to fight.

Will the Beaver's family succeed, I'm not sure about the nail, but at least it's a higher chance of success than a competitor. In this industry, it's not enough to be rich, no money but never, investors last year's small climax, has led to the U.S. industry O2O by entrepreneurs to promote the transformation of capital driven by the force of capital will exponentially enhance the evil effect of the jungle, industry rapid differentiation, a few strong stronger, while most other competitors quickly to death.

You entrepreneur, please eyes, hurriedly rushes to the next doorway, do not fighting the American industry O2O, the opportunity is not much.