Economic growth has stabilized monetary policy in due course

After the central bank raises interest rate, the direction of monetary policy becomes the focus of attention.　　According to the practice, the Central Economic Work conference will be convened in December, the media said yesterday, the relevant departments have discussed the issue of central Economic Work Conference, the "positive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy" will be reassessed.　　Yesterday, in the "2010 Sina Golden Kylin Forum", authoritative experts on the future direction of monetary policy, price trends and other authoritative interpretation. Monetary policy should shift from "loose" to "prudent" and even "prudent" when the economy determines steady growth, it may consider turning to prudent and even prudent monetary policy, but monetary policy has not changed tone at present.　　Yesterday, in the "2010 Sina Golden Kylin Forum", the Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee members, Tsinghua University, China and the World Economic Research Center Director of the central government in response to some recent speculation about the tone of monetary policy. In accordance with established practice, the annual Central Economic Work conference is held in December.　　According to media reports, the departments concerned have conducted research and discussion on the issues of the Central Economic Work conference, and will reassess the "positive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy". In response to reports that monetary policy has shifted from moderately loose to moderate, he said monetary policy is not changing.　　In his view, the main observation point is whether the growth rate of macro-economy has been completely stabilized, no large-scale decline, the next phase of the entire monetary policy orientation of the change will be discussed. "Once the economic growth rate is stable, monetary policy can shift from right to prudent and even prudent monetary policy." "At the Sina Golden Kylin Forum held in Beijing yesterday, Li said," Of course, the conditions are ripe, not that we have to change today. He pointed out that if the growth rate of decline can be stabilized, the main aspects of economic contradictions will shift to asset prices, prices, as well as systemic financial risks.　　To deal with systemic financial risks, to cope with the pressure of price and asset prices, the policy orientation will change. He did not specify when it would be possible to consider the timing of the shift, but he said the timing must be "basically curbed by the slowdown in China's economic growth." "At the same time, he said," There are signs that the slowdown in economic growth is largely being curbed, and that next year's economic growth should be better if there are no major surprises.　　"He believes the pattern of moderate price rises in China's economy is likely to last for quite some time, and may even last for 5 years." The annual price index maintained 3% "difficult, can be achieved" yesterday, the gathering of many economic experts, but also inevitably talked about the future price trend. Yao Jingyuan, a general economist at the National Bureau of Statistics, predicted in the forum that the consumer Price index for the year would not rise above 3.5% per cent.　　He thinks he can achieve the goal of about 3%. The National Bureau of Statistics showed that September CPI Rose 3.6%, a 23-month high. Recently, the research machineConstruction has predicted that the annual CPI rise will reach 4%.　　In this respect, Yao Jingyuan also admits there is a real price rise pressure. Yesterday, some authoritative experts also said that the price rise pressure is very big.　　Zhu Zhixin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said the current upward pressure on prices remained high, with emphasis on economic growth, employment, inflation and balance of payments next year.　　Zhu Zhixin in the information Office of the State Council to launch the "Twelve-Five" (2011-2015) planning and brainstorming activities of the event to make this statement. "This month (October), the cumulative price rise has reached 2.9%, the month has been 3.6%, it should be said that the pressure of rising prices is still very large."　　"Zhu Zhixin said.　　Yao Jingyuan said that now one of the most important characteristics of price increases, food prices accounted for the overall level of price inflation of 70%, so the price increase does exist pressure. September CPI Rose 3.6% Year-on-year, a 23-month high, the month of food prices rose as much as 8%.　　The CPI rose 2.9% per cent year-on-year in January-September, while China set a target of 3% per cent in the year.　　Although Yao Jingyuan that October CPI may be higher than September, but he also said that the overall should be the annual CPI to maintain about 3% "difficult to achieve." "China's CPI is maintained at 3% and three factors have played a role." He pointed out that, first of all, China's broad money volume (M2) grew 19% in 2010, well below 1993 's 37%. Second, for China's vital food production, 2010 will break 1 trillion kg, higher than the 1994 inflation of 890 billion tons, abundant supply.　　Third, the investment rate for fixed assets is expected to grow by 24% this year, well below 1993 's 61%. In addition to monetary policy, China should be wary of short-term liquidity risks, and he stressed in his speech yesterday that China should be wary of short-term outflows.　　He pointed out that at present, China may be in a "sauna", the world is a surplus of liquidity, but "sauna" is very hot, it is likely to soon become a "cold shower." He pointed out in the forum that three forms of systemic financial risk must be highly focused: First, a bubble in asset prices rising too fast.　　Second, the decline in the operating conditions of large-scale financial institutions will also bring about the overall economic impact. He highlighted the risk of capital reversal in the short term.　　He points out that the "sauna" history tells us that it will soon become a "cold shower". "If foreign financial situation is contracted, if the capital outflow is disorderly, the impact on the economy is unimaginable."　　"He stressed the need to address this systemic financial risk through the current reform approach. Second, he also mentioned that the core of the RMB exchange rate problem is not the issue of the value of sinks, but the initiative. "The adjustment of China's economic structure requires a more flexible, more floating exchange rate system, and may require a certain appreciation of the extent." However, a flexible systemis to be held firmly in our hands.　　"The local government's invisible debt accounts for 20% of GDP," says Jia Kang, director of the Finance Science Institute at the Ministry of Finance, the local government's invisible debt, which accounts for about 20% to 25% of GDP. July 2010, the China Banking Regulatory Commission announced that as of June 30, local financing platform loans a total of 7.66 trillion. Jia Kang said that, in addition to financing platform loans, coupled with corporate debt and other forms of debt, local invisible debt in the early 8 trillion.　　Public-sector debt ratios are up to 50%, below the 60% control line. According to statistics, as of the end of August this year, the local financing platform loan mortgage valuation accounted for the total platform loan balance of 49.4%, about 3.75 trillion yuan.　　In the first three quarters, the results of local financing platform loan inventory show that: The local Government financial guarantee relies excessively, the platform legal person ownership is not clear, the loan term is too long, and there is a widespread problem of whole loan and risk delay exposure. Jia Kang introduced that the structure of local debt is a large number of decentralized decision-making, low standard, transparent degree of distortion of the debt.　　According to the CBRC's survey, of the 7.66 trillion loans, 23% had a clear risk of about 1.76 trillion. 2009, China's fiscal deficit of 950 billion yuan, 2010 reached 1.05 trillion yuan. Jia Kang said that, compared with annual GDP, the deficit accounted for about 2.8%, which actually coincides with the European Union's 3% control line.　　He stressed that China's financial position is relatively stable, and that the debt structure and operating mechanism should be paid more attention at present.　　The official stance of the central bank: Pay close attention to potential inflationary pressure, guide monetary conditions to gradually return to normal level South Daily News (Beijing Correspondent/Lu Tianling) The central bank yesterday released its third-quarter monetary policy enforcement report, reiterating that it would continue to implement moderately loose monetary policy, while stressing that price upward pressure should not be overlooked and that inflationary expectations should be strengthened　　The central bank said that to grasp the strength, rhythm and focus of monetary policy implementation, while maintaining the continuity and stability of monetary policy, it will look forward and flexibly adjust policy focus, intensity and rhythm, and guide the monetary conditions to return from the crisis state to normal level gradually. The central bank stressed that there is still structural price upward pressure.　　The price of domestic labor and service industry rises, the cost of resource environmental protection increases, and the price of resource products needs to be straightened out, which may affect inflation expectation. The report notes that economies have been more cautious in withdrawing from the uncertainties of the global economic recovery and that, as the stimulus measures expire, advanced economies are starting to introduce new stimulus measures, with large sums likely to flow to faster-growing emerging economies.　　Under the background of abundant liquidity and strong inflation expectation, the surplus funds must look for various ways and exits, and the potential inflationary pressure should be highly concerned. The report pointed out that the implementation of a good differential housing policy to promote the healthy and smooth development of the real estate market.　　At the same time, we will steadily promote the reform of interest rate marketization, continue to promote the construction of the benchmark interest rate system, and continuously improve the scientific pricing ability. On the reform of the exchange rate regime, the central bank reiteratedWe will continue to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, further improve the mechanism of RMB exchange rate formation and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. International Trends 5 Central banks this week to talk about the US or lead the easing policy Australia India takes the lead in raising interest rates against inflation as the top priority for emerging countries the world is holding its breath this week. At a time when countries were fighting a currency war, monetary policy had become the focus of global attention, while the United States, Britain, Europe, Japan, Australia and India had all been negotiating this week, or the most eye-catching week of the year. Will the Fed release a new round of quantitative easing? What will the world's leading central banks do to deal with the impact of the Fed's two-time QE on the dollar's devaluation? Or is domestic inflation the focus of national consideration?　　This week, the choices of central banks will be unveiled each time, and these decisions are profoundly affecting the current global market. Data show that the economy did not two recessions estimated the United States to start two quantitative easing is not small yesterday morning, tilting the global Federal Reserve began a 3-day meeting, some analysts that the three days to affect the global "financial market 33 hours."　　Many analysts expect the Federal Reserve to start a second round of quantitative easing in the current U.S. economy. Given that the real federal funds target rate has fallen to zero, the extra easing means the Fed is ready to buy more assets, expand its balance sheet further and inject more liquidity into the financial system.　　Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, has said the effect of buying 500 billion-dollar bonds is likely to be equivalent to a 0.5 or 0.75% reduction in the federal funds rate. The U.S. Commerce Department's third-quarter GDP growth was 0.3% higher than expected in the second quarter. Consumer growth in the third quarter was 2.6%, 0.4% higher than in the second quarter, the fastest growth in consumption since 2007. Good data suggest that the US is not in the midst of a two recession and that the market's expectations of two QE are waning. "The Fed's measures are likely to disappoint the market and may not be strong enough." "David Charpe, global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, said.　　According to a survey by Thomson Reuters, the market expects the Fed to buy $80 billion-100 billion trillion of assets a month under the new plan to bolster the sluggish economy.　　Suisse, Asia's chief economic analyst for Credit Suisse, said the Fed's round of QE could start spending 100 billion of billions of dollars early in the year, possibly accumulating to $1 trillion by the end of 2011. Standard Chartered Bank G10, head of foreign exchange strategy, also analysed that the size and extent of the Fed's policy easing should be much smaller and less than 2009, and still limited to US debt instruments.　　He expects two QE to lead to a structural pullback in the dollar in the short term, but less influential than the 2009 quantitative easing policy. Tan Yaling, dean of China Foreign Exchange Research Institute, told the Southern Daily reporter yesterday, with the market already fully reflected in quantitative easing in the US, the dollar has fallen in part to the Fed's intention to pass on domestic deflation risks, and as the US nears elections, it is not expected to be very strong. Prevent the United States "water" diffuse global countries or a global printing campaign but once the Fed continues to do so, the global impact is not small. "With two-thirds of the dollar circulating globally, the Fed's quantitative easing is equivalent to releasing liquidity to the world and paying for domestic deflation with world inflation." Central banks should formulate corresponding exchange rate policies according to their different actual domestic conditions.　　Tan Yaling told reporters. In fact, last week, after a small rebound in the dollar, the dollar fell sharply yesterday, has fallen to 76.85, down 0.4%, followed by the non-US currency again ushered in a wave of appreciation. Gross, chief investment manager of Pimco, told the media that if the Fed continued to implement unconventional monetary easing, the dollar would have a 20% devaluation in the coming years. "If a central bank prints trillions of dollars, it is undoubtedly through supply that the dollar is devalued globally."　　"The continued weakness of the dollar has led to a tightening of economic conditions in other regions and central banks need to act accordingly," said Goldman Sachs senior global economist Wilson. November 4, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England meeting, the Bank of Japan also will be scheduled to November 4-5th. At a meeting earlier last month, the Bank of Japan accidentally announced interest-rate cuts and implemented an asset acquisition plan of 5 trillion trillion yen. The bank's record of the meeting showed that, while the amount of ETF and REIT purchases may be small, the actions of central banks to buy will have a positive effect and make the market more active.　　Analysts point to signs that the BOJ may be able to introduce further quantitative easing measures in response to the dollar's policy. Taking into account domestic inflation Australia has taken the lead in raising interest rates Suisse forecasts, according to the current situation, it is estimated that Japan will have a post, and the UK reopened quantitative easing is only a matter of time, but not necessarily this week. The ECB is expected to be smaller due to its own mandate and German-French attitude. "The central bank is on the verge of a war, and in any sense a global printing campaign, which is rare in peacetime, is about to begin, with potentially far-reaching implications for asset prices and inflation expectations." "However, before the Fed's play, there are still more central banks to consider domestic inflation ahead of the policy."　　The central banks of Australia and India took the lead yesterday to announce higher rates. The central bank unexpectedly raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%, the first time Australia has been raising interest rates again in six months.　　The RBI also announced the 6th rate hike this year, raising the repo and reverse repo rates by 25 basis points, to 6.25% and 5.25% respectively. The Australian Central Bank Council said that "in the medium term, the risk of a rise in inflation remains".　　The news came as the Aussie dollar rose sharply against the dollar yesterday, to 99.67 cents a dollar, up 1.2% per cent. Since last October, the RBA has been on six occasionsInterest rate, the cumulative range reached 150 basis points.　　Earlier, the International Monetary Organization had said that Australia's inflation rate will soon be close to 2% to 3% target range high-end, Australia's housing prices are too high, if the economy continues to expand as expected, the monetary authorities need to further tighten monetary policy, the benchmark interest rate to curb inflationary pressure. Experts say inflation prevention is a priority for emerging countries. India, too, faces huge inflationary pressures. India's September data show that India's benchmark wholesale price index rose 8.5% in August, slightly below July's 9.97% per cent, the most heavily G20 in the country.　　The Indian finance minister, Mukherjee, said the central bank's interest rate hike reflected the cautious stance of the action to balance economic growth and curb price increases. Tan Yaling that countries should now focus on the domestic situation, from a country's economic situation to formulate appropriate measures.　　Avoid being "led" by the dollar. Nanfang Daily correspondent Huang Nanfang daily correspondent Lu Tianling