Experts say excessive concentration of new credit highlights bad risk

June new credit will be more than a trillion business news after the small trough of credit in April or May, the June new credit will reappear "blowout" trend.　　Recently, the major institutions have to increase expectations, the month is expected to increase the credit increment will be more than trillion, up to 1.5 trillion yuan.　　1-May, China's new credit scale experienced a process from "blowout" to rational regression. In the first quarter of the month after the rapid release of trillions, April or May appeared a brake, respectively, 591.8 billion yuan, 664.5 billion yuan.　　However, with the third batch of central investment of 70 billion yuan in place in June, the enthusiasm of bank supporting financing will rise again. Recently, CICC released its research report, which is expected to rebound sharply to at least 1.3 trillion yuan in June.　　Some agencies have also raised this forecast limit to 1.5 trillion yuan. "The probability of a trillion-dollar credit in June is very high.　　"CITIC Investment macro analyst Xiamingren analysis that commercial banks to judge the second half of the credit tightening policy is very likely, so before the contraction of the scale of the time to tighten lending." However, the tendency for bank loans to be excessively concentrated on government-led projects such as "Tiegangki" has not changed radically since the onset of the financial crisis.　　The latest figures from China's Banking Association show that at present, of the 19 major banks in China, the ratio of customers ' loan concentration of more than 50 million is about 60%. "It is more appropriate for banks to keep their loans at around 40% per cent by the usual market standards, and once more than 50%, that means a higher risk of loans," he said.　　"Xiamingren said.　　He also noted that the irrational composition of the bank's lending was large, this will lead to a tightening of bank positions and a further rise in capital pressures, and, on the other hand, the potential for solvency to be problematic and the likelihood that excess liquidity translates into non-performing loans will increase as the economic recovery process and local corporate profits do not break through in two years. At the same time, high credit spending has also increased inflation expectations and asset bubbles.　　Some agencies expect moderately loose monetary policy to shift in the four quarter of this year.　　China's monetary policy shift may be consistent with the external monetary environment, and China's moderately loose monetary policy is expected to shift at the earliest four quarters, said Chinese bank analyst Benji.　　In this respect, Xiamingren said, if GDP is expected to exceed 7% per 8% in the two quarter, the monetary policy will gradually tighten after three quarters. Notably, the central bank in its May 6 report on the implementation of China's monetary policy (first quarter 2009) made it clear that "if the next phase of the international financial crisis continues to deepen, credit still needs a certain degree of growth".