2013 Mobile Internet Five trends: Kai-Fu Lee said the scale or up to 500 million

Kai-Fu Lee on the 2013 domestic technology industry prospects remain optimistic. He believes that foreign listed companies last year's share price gradually rose, many domestic start-up companies can do more than tens of millions of income. This suggests that the market still has opportunities. However, technological entrepreneurship also faces many challenges, such as homogenization of competition and the entry of giants. "But in 2013 there will be more startups and investors in the technology industry," he said. ”

Innovation Workshop Chairman and CEO Kai-Fu Lee

Lee said the mobile internet has five trends, including:

1, the scale is bigger, last year domestic is 200 million mobile equipment, this year may reach 500 million;

2, the competition is more intense, several big internet giant Company enters the mobile internet massively;

3, channel integration, although the channel in the growth, is still relatively single, is relying on the application store. For entrepreneurs, this means that the cost of acquiring traffic will be very large, there will be more refined channels in the future;

4, the currency is perfect, the game domain changes from the Internet to the mobile internet speed is very fast, is not the game domain movement is also very fast;

5, data start-up, large data age, entrepreneurs and product managers from the hands of the data to find the user needs and entrepreneurial direction.

Kai-Fu Lee on the 2013 domestic technology industry prospects remain optimistic. He believes that foreign listed companies last year's share price gradually rose, many domestic start-up companies can do more than tens of millions of income. This suggests that the market still has opportunities. However, technological entrepreneurship also faces many challenges, such as homogenization of competition and the entry of giants. "But in 2013 there will be more startups and investors in the technology industry," he said. ”

Here is the transcript of Li Kaifu's dialogue with business value editor Zhang Peng:

Five trends of mobile internet

Zhang Peng: Miss Fu, today we are so early to let you open the opening, in fact, I believe that many people have been looking forward to the exchange with you, I would like to say a more pragmatic question, recently, we all feel that entrepreneurial activities in China is not as hot as before, the investment environment seems to be so, you do not have this feeling? Do you think this is a good time to start a business?

Kai-Fu Lee: I think the two or three-year change is very big, three years ago, a lot of people didn't care about the move to change the world, and we made this bet with other companies, and two years ago more people saw this potential, and in the past year we saw some fruits and blossoms, but the past 12 months may have seen some challenges, such as the involvement of Giants, For example, the overseas market cooling and so on, but also scared back some entrepreneurs, have let some investment to take a step back slightly, for the 2013 investment and entrepreneurial environment, I still optimistic attitude, first we began to see overseas listed companies, although some encountered problems, but also some have a huge growth, to give investors confidence, Prices have started to rise recently. Second, many domestic start-up companies to achieve tens of millions of dollars in monthly income, sea quantification of products will certainly rise, we also see many challenges to entrepreneurship, the giant's intervention, more than before the success will be more difficult, but I believe that next year we will be sitting here than this year has a greater progress, there are more entrepreneurs, More investors are sitting here with more smiles.

Zhang Peng: the opportunity always exists, the key is the entrepreneur with what determination to participate in such a big historical process. With determination and courage, the direction is also very important, the teacher has been in the past three years to stand in the preface of product innovation, has been watching a variety of projects, how do you feel? From the past few years, what are the things that see trends? What new opportunities are available?

Kai-fu Lee: In fact, I think our best teacher or history, the development of mobile Internet, is a large degree of replication in the past the growth of the Internet, but it is faster, may be fast 3-5 times, there are mobile characteristics, but it step by step the rise, basically through the internet forecast. Today in the 2000-2002 years of the internet age, from today, see is 5 a relatively big trend, first of all know, last year reached 200 million mobile internet smart devices, this year can be the past 500 million goals, as the past PC growth, will bring huge opportunities, this is very huge. The second challenge is that competition is getting more intense, three internet giants, and many other big internet companies are starting to put more resources into the mobile Internet, at the same time, see the opportunity to make money, homogenization competition is becoming more and more fierce, a little bit of the feeling of the group, not so easy, It's not enough to change someone else's success story. The third trend is the integration of channels, the big difference between mobile and internet, although the channel is also growing, but also relatively single, more dependent on the application store, and application stores and other channels of traffic growth, although also fast, but not as fast as users and products grow, means a few things: for entrepreneurs to get traffic , the cost of purchasing channels will increase, to the industry is also a challenge, believe that the future will have better channels and flow integration, there will be a few brand channels, there is a very important thing, traffic will be more refined, not a one-time download, but will do fine detail of the flow and channel operations, this is our forecast. Finally, the improvement of monetization, in fact, in the game, basically jump from the internet to mobile Internet, the future and the payment of the challenges to be completed, but the entire virtual currency model has been basically a mature model, we also saw a number of tens applications exist, But let us be more gratified is not the game monetization road seems to go very fast, some international brands have been willing to put ads in the mobile.

Zhang Peng: What do you think about mobile advertising?

Kai-Fu Lee: We would have held a more pessimistic attitude, such as Google, Baidu education market to accept search ads, spent five years, and not perfect, there is no doubt that the public to accept mobile advertising also need time, but may not need to be so long as we worry about things. In addition, Tencent Micro-letter O2O exploration, two-dimensional code, but also let us feel that the degree of acceptance by the merchant may also exceed our forecasts, we are also holding a very long-term process, let them know that this is to obtain user channels, Tencent letter and two-dimensional code of the attempt will speed up. The last trend is that data start-ups can also be a pretty good opportunity, and we're always worried about where our innovative ideas come from, copy from abroad, or add different people's ideas, or do localization process, or pat the head, or have jobs such people come out, yy is a typical example, just start doing relatively small operations, From the user needs, is basically the process of elite entrepreneurship, we think that in the big data age as entrepreneurs can get the user's needs and entrepreneurial direction, from the data can be mined in the information, whether in large companies, or even through open community mining, I believe that there are many entrepreneurial direction, this is what we see five trends.

O2O will have a breakthrough this year.

Zhang Peng: Everyone in the entrepreneurial process will feel that there is a problem, enterprises need to be able to really create cash flow, advertising mode is in fact still gradually mature process, has not been detonated the complete point, from the game, in this time what kind of things? It's a social thing, what have you been looking at lately?

Kai-fu Lee: Advertising is still very long-term, if today to do a mobile product, the future is to rely on advertising to make money, in fact, advertising does not need to make money, rely on advertising to make money needs of the user is very large, if there is such a large number of users, there is no need to I think we can look at a few areas and now it looks like there are fewer opportunities in the social arena, there are two basic social products: one is two-way connection, a one-way connection, like Weibo, these two already have two mountains, the platform is more difficult, and many small trees can rely on them to grow up, but want to do the platform will be very difficult, Small companies can rely on these big social platforms to quickly get users to grow, our investment in the PA may be such a typical example, but whether the pop can become a huge platform or not see clearly, I think people should be a quick way to get the market and users, There may be some narrow areas of focus that can socialize.

We feel that O2O has been challenged but there may be some breakthroughs this year, O2O different, and if you can pick out special value-added opportunities, such as travel, or find some mobile areas, you have a traditional field, because moving can subvert the way things used to do, whether it's by taxi, or ordering, Even marketing can be applied to a variety of traditional areas that are less concerned about the involvement of giants, and that these areas are worth exploring if they have expertise or user sources. Next year there may be large coverage, special brands, but it is difficult to predict which. Enterprise-class application is very important, in the U.S. public companies in the enterprise-level application than consumer-level application more than several times, demand is there, pay habits and will also exist, today is it possible because of mobile, cloud computing, large data to bring some opportunities? Break the pattern of past companies unwilling to pay and not like to pay, but if we look at 5 or 7 years, I'm pretty sure there will be a lot of enterprise-level applications in China in 5 to 7 years.