HONG Kong stocks bullish 103 Bear certificate was forced to recover June callback probability greater

Hang Seng Index daily trend chart every trainee reporter Yang Ke Monday, Hong Kong stocks continue to soar, in a a strong rally driven by the stock market, the boom 3.95%, closed more than 8-month new highs. But a family of joy a worry, hundreds of bear card but because Hong Kong stocks strong Yang and was "disastrous".　　The day before the day was recycled by the issuer (the stock price touches the price of the issuer, the bear certificate will be set aside), as many as 103 bear certificates, a single day, a record number of cattle bear card recovery.　　According to HKEx data, of the 103 bear certificates recovered, 54 are linked to the HSI, 8 are linked to the index of state-owned enterprises, and the remaining 41 is a blue-chip bear certificate including 00005,HK, ICBC (01398,HK) and Mobile (00941,HK).　　June Hong Kong stock callback probability Greater China Merchants Securities (HK) analyst Chen Wen Ambition "daily economic news", according to China Merchants Securities from the beginning of 2005, the Hong Kong turbine and cattle bear card turnover accounted for the total market turnover ratio and HSI monthly price of the relationship, found that the former has a certain leading indicator role. Data suggest that the index should have a correction this year in May, but with the combination of financial and policy aspects, the index is still on the rise.　　As a result of the previous surge in the Hang Seng index, the probability of a large callback this month is greater, its callback will be more than 10%, the support point around 16,000 points, and Chen Wenzhi also said that the matching statistics of the correlation coefficient of about 0.7. Analysts suggest investing in turbines in addition, an important figure shows that as of Friday, the index of the number of warrants held by the public investors, usually referred to as the market overnight position, was the volume of a bear card.　　) is 3.33 billion, and the index is only 350 million, the former is almost 10 times times that of the latter, suggesting that although the market has recently been up and down, the market is still very strong atmosphere. It is understood that the Hang Seng Index 3-month OTC option extension amplitude, has recently begun to fall sharply, as of the weekend, the value of only 35.7%, is close to the historical average of 30%.　　In this connection, Chen Wenzhi pointed out that the decline in extension amplitude will increase the value of the turbine's investment, the future of the turbine will be more active, suggesting that investors can add to the turbine, and can pay attention to the HSI sell round 16668, A50 fund sell round 16665, BOC sell round 16040. Background small knowledge "nest wheel": is a very risky investment product in Hong Kong's stock market, which is what we call the warrants, which are actually transliteration of "warrants" in English, and their professional name is "warrants", and the news media often refer to the prepared warrants and stock warrants, It is also the two most common in the Hong Kong market, as far as the rights of the holder are concerned, the prepared warrants are divided into warrants and warrants, and in terms of the timing of the exercise, the prepared warrants are divided into American warrants (which can be exercised during the period) and European-style warrants (the expiration of the right to do so).　　At present, the main popular in the Hong Kong market is European-style warrants, similar to a-share market warrants. "Bull Bear Certificate": A structured product that reflects the performance of related assets, including cattle certificates and bear certificates.　　Investors can use a small amount of money to invest in the underlying assets, such as stocks, indices, or commodities. The biggest characteristic of CBBC card is that it has the mechanism of compulsory recovery. In the validity period of the Bull Bear Certificate, if the related asset price touches the specified level of the listed document, that is, the recovery price, the issuing chamber immediately reclaims the Bull Bear Certificate and terminates the CBBC in the market, and the expiration date set is no longer valid.　　The certificate issued by the Distributor is divided into two categories according to the determination of the recovery price. The other is the recovery price is equal to the exercise price, that is, the N class bear certificate; the other is the recovery price is not equal to the price of the cattle or bear card, that is, R-type Bull bear card, the current Hong Kong market is almost all the cattle bear card "R". "Implied volatility": The Hong Kong market is known as the "extension of volatility", the extension of volatility is the market for the relevant assets in the future period of the volatility of expectations. When the amplitude of extension increases, the price of the warrants will be raised, and when the amplitude of extension falls, the price of the warrants will be lowered. Investors should buy at a time when the extension is low, and sell when the amplitude of the extension is higher.