Housing price rises determine property market trend

In 2008, tax relief, loan interest rate cut, such as a series of good news support, the first half of 2009, many front-line cities have a long absence of the "small spring", and the housing market temperature and duration of the long-term, far more than people to the so-called "small spring" expectations. Beijing and Shenzhen, a second-hand housing transactions in the first half of this year set a volume price Zisheng "Harvest" performance. Among them, Beijing second-hand house volume Rose 6 times times, Shanghai second-hand housing volume broken 30,000 sets.　　BEIJING, Shanghai Second-hand housing prices rose 15%, Shenzhen new house rose up to 30%. Property market ahead of the overall economic performance of the rapid warming of the real estate industry inside and outside the great concern. In the second half, the impact of the property market, especially the first-line city Beijing and Shenzhen market trend will be?　　Professional institutions generally believe that the determinants are housing prices. Beijing: Second-hand housing volume increased 6 times times according to 21st century real estate monitoring data showed that the first half of 2009 Beijing second-hand House Net signed a total of 104671 sets, of which the residential network signed 101164 sets, compared to the same period in 2008, respectively, Rose 6.6 times times and 6.4 times times.　　From a single month deal, the first half of second-hand housing monthly turnover rose average of 30.9%, of which the highest rise in March, up to 112.5%, after the three-month chain increase is not obvious, but the overall turnover is maintained at more than 20,000 sets of high. Beijing New Year's first half of the net signed 110654 sets, of which the housing contract 83546 sets, the same period 2008 years, respectively, Rose 82.7% and 106%. Because of the number of new home network signed a large number of commercial housing, office room, parking and other sales data, so the first half of Beijing new house net sign than second-hand housing higher than 5983 sets, but the deduction of this part of the data, only from the housing sales data, the first half of second-hand homes than newly built residential sales more than 17618 sets, one,　　Second-hand housing sales of 1:1.2, compared with the first half of 2008, the ratio is 1:0.3, second-hand housing transactions more than one-bedroom show the Beijing property market further mature. In the first half of 2009 in volume and a second-hand housing prices driven by each other, Beijing real estate prices rose, of which second-hand residential prices in the first half of the cumulative growth of 15.2% per cent, monthly growth of 3%, the first half of the new housing sales price cumulative growth of 27.1%, in addition to the first half of the Beijing Frequency is now for developers and owners to further elevate the sale price to provide confidence, but also to some areas of the property prices have been overdrawn. Shanghai: Second-hand Housing transaction Innovation High 21st century real estate monitoring data show that the first half of 2009, Shanghai second-hand housing sales 138409 sets, compared to 2008 years of the same period of 73534 sets of growth 88.2%, March-June second-hand housing transactions in the monthly volume of more than 20,000 sets,　　Even in June trading volume reached 31275 sets, and 2008 all year round, Shanghai has not seen a single month trading volume broken 20,000 sets of cases. Shanghai new home in the first half of the total deal 91420 sets, higher than the same period last year 31.7%, but with second-handHousing market sales all the way up, the only breakthrough in Shanghai new house sales 20,000 sets are in April, 21000 sets, after the 5 June trading volume has fallen, but compared with the 2008 trading volume still maintain a high level. The decline in trading volume in 5 June was related to the excessive rise in the price of new homes. May Shanghai new House average price rose by nearly 5% per cent, the June price quarter-on-quarter increase is reached 11.9%.　　Clearly, prices have been rising too fast to curb some of the demand for the market. The first half of Shanghai second-hand housing prices rose 15.2%, of which the highest rise in June, the average price of the chain Rose 4.8%.　　The new house market in February this year affected by the spring festival transaction prices appeared nearly 10% decline, so the entire first half, the average monthly price of Shanghai bridal chamber was pulled bottom to 2.7%, but from a single month prices to see the March-June price ring rose in Shanghai is between 5%-12%. Shenzhen: New Year in the first half of 30% according to 21st century real estate monitoring data, 2009 first half of Shenzhen second-hand housing transactions 59949 sets, compared to the first half of 2008 17773 sets Rose 237.3%, new house sales amounted to 41387 sets, compared to 2008 year rose 141.3%. Since March, Shenzhen second-hand housing volume has maintained more than 10,000 sets, and the new house market even in the highest volume in March, only 8509 sets, and April-June showed a lack of market power, which is mainly related to the price of new house items.　　Blind prices directly led to a decline in turnover, but also diverted some customers to the second-hand market, indirectly pulled up the growth of second-hand housing turnover. 2009 Shenzhen Second-hand housing price trend is more stable, the first half of the cumulative price rise of 8.5%, but the new house price cumulative increase reached 30.1%.　　However, the average price of new homes is still 9.1% from February compared to the 2008-year peak. The second half of the house prices decided to move to the latest release of the first half of the 2009 Middle House Index Report, March this year, the country's 70 large and medium-sized housing sales price index has rebounded. In March-May, the number of cities with a month-on-month rise in the price index increased from 38 to 62. June, 35 large and medium-sized cities in the price chain rise in the city has up to 28, only 6 cities have not yet risen, this is the developers themselves have no idea. In addition, in 2008, tax relief, loan interest rates down, relax housing enterprises, money lenders, additional financing, such as a series of favorable policies, with the first half of the real estate sales back to increase, developers of financial pressure has been very small, corporate investment confidence recovery.　　Therefore, the property market has attracted much attention. According to the China House Index Research Institute, the relevant departments of the State Council are listening to housing and urban and rural Ministry of Construction and the HS report. China's housing index predicts that there is still a lot of uncertainty about macroeconomics, which will affect real estate investment. Investment in real estate development will grow steadily in the second half of 2009, but will be lower than the 20.9% growth in the year. BecauseMarket demand is still relatively strong, and buyers of the housing value of the expectation, and the development of enterprises in the financial pressure to ease the loss of sales promotion and withdrawal of capital pressure, the second half of the expected price will continue to rise steadily, individual new supply of the city may have a faster growth. 21st Century Real Estate analysis, the second half of the first to see the positive policy on the market can continue to stimulate the role of how long. From the current market volume, in the property market, the government's stimulus policy has a significant effect, but the overall market transaction activity still needs to be improved. There should be no noticeable change in economic policy and property policies in the coming period. The agency believes that the housing bubble caused by rising housing prices is still in the market's own regulation. The impact on the second half of the volume is largely determined by the rise in house prices.　　The housing index predicts that prices will rise sharply in the market, where the supply of commercial housing is inadequate. Analysis agencies generally believe that investment demand to push higher prices will inhibit their own home purchase. Prices will rise in the third quarter, but not rule out price adjustments in the four quarter.